A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[Scientist Shan]

Churchill certainly won't like it, but he has a pretty limited control over things even compared to OTL: the French


Doesn't help a lot - infantry patrols are only effective quite a short distance in front of their own lines, where they have the effective ability to run away back to their own supporting units. Problem is, moving those supporting units forwards is rather hard.

Waiting until spring means a continuing cost in lives and money and risks either the German army re-establishing the front line, a new German regime resorting to desperate measures (gas) or Soviet intervention and occupation in the east.

A five mile per day advance for three weeks would lead to the entire German army being destroyed before winter.

 

[Paulo the Limey]

A five mile per day advance for three weeks would lead to the entire German army being destroyed before winter.

Explain how they can support the logistical effort require for a continued advance over three weeks, when they can barely support the current usage with divisions at rest. Explain how you will get the soldiers to continue advancing, continuously, for three weeks, when they have already been doing so for two, and are already exhausted.

 

[What if]

Waiting until spring means a continuing cost in lives and money and risks either the German army re-establishing the front line, a new German regime resorting to desperate measures (gas) or Soviet intervention and occupation in the east.

A five mile per day advance for three weeks would lead to the entire German army being destroyed before winter.

Explain how they can support the logistical effort require for a continued advance over three weeks, when they can barely support the current usage with divisions at rest. Explain how you will get the soldiers to continue advancing, continuously, for three weeks, when they have already been doing so for two, and are already exhausted.

To add to this the front lines have not been effected by the coup yet and all the allies know about the coup attempt is likely limited to the one transmission by the plotters (they might be able to know about Goering's movement into Berlin but I'm not 100% sure on that). There isn't enough information to justify any movement on the allies part yet.

 

[marathag]

Not sure what the 83rd achieved exactly, but they had a way to go to reach where the UK was

Became legends. Or just notorious for taking any running motor transport. Not easy for an Infantry Division to accomplish

When they had their attached truck transports ordered to other units, they decided to use what they could find.

Most pictures you find on the 'net of captured German gear being operated by the US, was from these guys, known as 'Rag-Tag Circus'


In their fourteen day, 280-mile dash from the Rhine to become the 1st US Unit over the Elbe, they captured some 12,000 German POWs, including a General and several Colonels,
freed thousands of Concentration Camp victims, took 72 German towns, when finally Ordered to Halt on April 15. They captured a ME-109, that they also operated.

 

[Scientist Shan]

Explain how they can support the logistical effort require for a continued advance over three weeks, when they can barely support the current usage with divisions at rest. Explain how you will get the soldiers to continue advancing, continuously, for three weeks, when they have already been doing so for two, and are already exhausted.

I'm amazed that any army was able to ever make any advances at any time.

A quick look at military history shows that they were.

We could start at how fast and for how long the Allied armies were able to advance in the '100 days' of 1918 or in France in 1944 or in Germany in April 1945.

 

[Scientist Shan]

To add to this the front lines have not been effected by the coup yet and all the allies know about the coup attempt is likely limited to the one transmission by the plotters (they might be able to know about Goering's movement into Berlin but I'm not 100% sure on that). There isn't enough information to justify any movement on the allies part yet.

Sure things can't happen imminently but we saw how fast things unravelled politically in Germany during November 1918 and in TTL the Germany is already in a far worse state militarily than it was then.

 

[What if]

I'm amazed that any army was able to ever make any advances at any time.

A quick look at military history shows that they were.

We could start at how fast and for how long the Allied armies were able to advance in the '100 days' of 1918 or in France in 1944 or in Germany in April 1945.

Have you bothered to look into the logistics that had been built up prior to those offensives which makes what your proposing completely different by the lack of preparation the allies would have. Since your initial idea everyone else has been constantly saying that advances take preparation in order be sustain themselves (as well as the muddy terrain present this time of year) . The last advances by the allies in TTL saw a petrol shortage and the Ruhr had to be taken by the only forces the high command allocated oil to. They are still recovering from that and considering they gains they already made (specifically the battles in Belgium, The Netherlands and on German soil) they're in a position equal to the aftermath one of the great offensives you've listed. And considering the results from such offensives if they don't achieve victory are breaks that last months (aftermath of France 44) the allies aren't in a state to advance.

Sure things can't happen imminently but we saw how fast things unravelled politically in Germany during November 1918 and in TTL the Germany is already in a far worse state militarily than it was then.

Again the allies were prepared for their advances in 1918 they won't be for what your suggesting and further if Hitler wakes up in the next update the worst for the Germans is a reorganisation at the top levels (mini purge) which won't make the frontline worse. If Goering and Himmler come to blows the SS aren't going to win and I believe it will likely be over before the allies get a clear picture of what happened.

 

[fhaessig]

They captured a ME-109, that they also operated.

still does not top french light cavalry capturing a fleet at sea

 

[AlanJWhite]

still does not top french light cavalry capturing a fleet at sea

Again a French myth ...
Dutch traitors surrendered icebound ships off an inland port

 

[Xgentis]

still does not top french light cavalry capturing a fleet at sea

The sea was frozen but it still count.

 

[pdf27]

Again a French myth ...
Dutch traitors surrendered icebound ships off an inland port

Have you ever met a bashful cavalryman?

 

[Redolegna]

Again a French myth ...
Dutch traitors surrendered icebound ships off an inland port

Which still counts as capturing for the French. And the French have never claimed to be able to be so good believers as to be able to make their horses walk on liquid water.

 

[Scientist Shan]

Have you bothered to look into the logistics that had been built up prior to those offensives which makes what your proposing completely different by the lack of preparation the allies would have. Since your initial idea everyone else has been constantly saying that advances take preparation in order be sustain themselves (as well as the muddy terrain present this time of year) . The last advances by the allies in TTL saw a petrol shortage and the Ruhr had to be taken by the only forces the high command allocated oil to. They are still recovering from that and considering they gains they already made (specifically the battles in Belgium, The Netherlands and on German soil) they're in a position equal to the aftermath one of the great offensives you've listed. And considering the results from such offensives if they don't achieve victory are breaks that last months (aftermath of France 44) the allies aren't in a state to advance.

The Allies have achieved victory, they've occupied Germany's most important industrial centre and overrun army headquarters, the Wehrmacht is beaten in a way it wasn't IOTL until April 1945 and not at all during 1918.

Now do they realise that? Some will not but there will be others who certainly will do, both commanders at the front and politicians back in London.

Again the allies were prepared for their advances in 1918 they won't be for what your suggesting and further if Hitler wakes up in the next update the worst for the Germans is a reorganisation at the top levels (mini purge) which won't make the frontline worse. If Goering and Himmler come to blows the SS aren't going to win and I believe it will likely be over before the allies get a clear picture of what happened.

If Hitler wakes up and is accepted (he'll need a fake moustache) and is able to get control of things.

Otherwise we have a Goering who's credibility has gone with the Luftwaffe having performed so poorly, Himmler and also the Wehrmacht.

Are the generals going to take orders from Goering, are the ordinary soliders going to follow them? Wasn't it to Adolf Hitler personally that German servicemen gave their pledge of allegiance to? That is just another potential factor to add to the leadership turmoil.

 

[dunHozzie]

...And yes, I would have preferred Bukharin like anybody else but since the POD is in 1940, this will be a bit tricky.

Bukharin was executed years before the PoD, so he's way out of the running.​

I know gents, but our host could have done some more retroactive hand waving ​

 

[Dageraad]

A lot will depend on the few SS soldiers with Hitler right now, when and how he awakes, when he is found, if he is found and by who.
Ah, and the moustache. Does Goring know he is still alive?
Does the OKH?
Who's assassination was it anyway? Did Goring know?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Have you ever met a bashful cavalryman?

Which still counts as capturing for the French. And the French have never claimed to be able to be so good believers as to be able to make their horses walk on liquid water.

Or a modest Frenchman?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

If Hitler wakes up and is accepted (he'll need a fake moustache) a

See if he can borrow Groucho Marx's greasepaint.

 

[Ian_W]

Three thoughts.

Firstly, it's going to be hard to keep the Australian divisions from contiunuing to "aggressively patrol" until they find an intact bar in Hamburg, or indeed the entertainment district in Berlin.

Secondly, with Poland being left to starve and freeze, any sort of Warsaw Uprising is going to see the Polish forces in the West going to want to keep driving until they get to Warsaw, orders or no orders.

Thirdly, Mussolini is now faced with the same decision he faced in 1940. In TTL, he stays neutral. But will he be able to resist declaring war to get a seat at the victor's table ?

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Thirdly, Mussolini is now faced with the same decision he faced in 1940. In TTL, he stays neutral. But will he be able to resist declaring war to get a seat at the victor's table ?

Isn't the Italian Armies "First Team" in Romania? Though Mussolini never did care much for the state of his army

 

[What if]

The Allies have achieved victory, they've occupied Germany's most important industrial centre and overrun army headquarters, the Wehrmacht is beaten in a way it wasn't IOTL until April 1945 and not at all during 1918.

Now do they realise that? Some will not but there will be others who certainly will do, both commanders at the front and politicians back in London.

That doesn't mean the allies are in a state to continually advance as they had to ration petrol due to out running their supplies and there hasn't been enough time passed to secure the fuel needed to drive all the way to Berlin and the allies can't rely on capturing German supplies at this point. Just because an enemy is defeated doesn't mean you are in a state to secure victory and given at present conditions of logistics and weather don't favour the allied battle plan the result of your suggestions if implemented is a series of continually interrupted advances as opposed to a clean sweep when the allies advance in the spring.

If Hitler wakes up and is accepted (he'll need a fake moustache) and is able to get control of things.

The Generals and senior NAZI's have seen Hitler enough to recognise him without a moustache and considering how they deferred after operation Valkyrie him resorting order if he wakes up isn't the problem.

Otherwise we have a Goering who's credibility has gone with the Luftwaffe having performed so poorly, Himmler and also the Wehrmacht.

Are the generals going to take orders from Goering, are the ordinary soliders going to follow them? Wasn't it to Adolf Hitler personally that German servicemen gave their pledge of allegiance to? That is just another potential factor to add to the leadership turmoil.

They are in Berlin already and if pdf's hints are to be believed some of the plotters are pretending to be loyal to him as it seems they either decided that their attempts to overthrow the NAZI's were going to fail or they were only aiming for Hitlers death and hoping Goering would let them run and the war and be the fall man and allow them to purge the SS.