A 'race' wouldn't really fit with the Anglo-French 'Way of War' at this stage. I'd expect a broad-front advance, at least initially. If there is a major German collapse, however, who knows.
A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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A 'race' wouldn't really fit with the Anglo-French 'Way of War' at this stage. I'd expect a broad-front advance, at least initially. If there is a major German collapse, however, who knows.
Hungary and Romania negotiated a settlement. A large reason for this was that they wanted to present the Italians with a done deal so as to avoid slipping further into being their puppets.
Yep - essentially they’re giving up a little bit of territory on the border to get the Hungarians to protect them from Italy, who in turn are protecting them from the Soviets. It’s more than a little Byzantine....
That's what I'd expect. The Anglo-French are casualty adverse and a 'race for Berlin' would be very risky in their eyes.
Which reminds me, how are the Greeks doing at this point? It seems like most of Southeast Europe (I'm of the opinion that any group that includes Hungary can't be called the Balkans) are at least temporarily putting their issues on hold. In 1940 & 1941 the French and to some degree the British have been distracted from the area, but 1942 should be better (unless the British Army is fighing in some lovely place like Burma, Hainan or Kyushu.
On another note, I wonder about Palestine. The Jews in Palestine are going to feel less militarily threatened due to the lack of Nazis in North Africa and Vichy French territories in Lebanon/Syria, I wonder whether you'd simply see Jews join the British Military as individuals, this means no Palmach, which also means the Jews are unlikely to be as militarily prepared for any later fight.
The question becomes whether concentrating all of both the British and French forces far enough north that they've breached the Westwall (which is more or less North of the Rhine plus areas that the Germans have been squeezed out of as the British moved south) would no longer be viewed as a broad front. So the French would leave some of their forces on the Maginot Line, plus defensively on the Benelux/German border north of the Rhine and shove the rest of them as far north as they can, which is an area that the British couldn't really advance with all of their armies? Presumably leaving the Dutch Army as Occupation troops behind them?
They also don't have a deadline to finish the war by. Quicker is better because even just doing nothing costs you men, but not as much as fighting a major engagement in midwinter where the German disadvantages are minimised. They can do so, however, and will if forced to.
A certain amount of internal full-contact politics, but that's it. They're not going to join the war.Which reminds me, how are the Greeks doing at this point? It seems like most of Southeast Europe (I'm of the opinion that any group that includes Hungary can't be called the Balkans) are at least temporarily putting their issues on hold. In 1940 & 1941 the French and to some degree the British have been distracted from the area, but 1942 should be better (unless the British Army is fighing in some lovely place like Burma, Hainan or Kyushu.
In the circumstances I really can't see the Palmach being formed, although the Irgun will still be about. With a highly concentrated Holocaust in Poland and the vast majority of European Jewish populations unaffected, I'm not envisaging anything like the OTL levels of Aliyah which is likely to lead to a much weaker potential insurgency.
Narrow/Broad front is all about the risk of the spearheads being cut off. With that many troops, you essentially can't fit them on a narrow front and the remaining problem is one of logistics.
Be surprised if any of them joined the war, they need their armies do deal with local enemies (though Hungary *might* jump in at the end)
Paradoxical, the more Jews surviving in Europe, the fewer travel to Palestine. I wonder what sequence of events after 1939 would lead to the most Jews fleeing to Palestine (or trying to), a 1944 Bomb Plot success?
So a broad front starting from a *relatively* narrow area, but no spearheads.
But the question is where do the French start out in the spring and which direction do they go. How much of the French Army can line up north of the Ruhr along with the British in the Spring.
The Avenger
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I suspect that it would have made more sense for Romania to ally with Italy in the hopes of eventually kicking Italy out after Britain and France finish dealing with Germany. Since Britain and France gave Romania a guarantee in 1939, they might be willing to protect it from the USSR after they're done with Germany. Then again, though, maybe not since they'd be exhausted.
Also, what you said doesn't actually contradict with what I said. Specifically, if Hungary makes territorial gains in both the north (in 1938-1939) and Romania, then it might be disinclined to give up either of these territorial gains even if Britain and France ask them to.
The Hungarian military can't match Italy's, can it?
Probably more like the combined Hungarian/Romanian military can deter the Italians the same way the combined Italian/Romanian forces can deter the Soviets. So if the Romanians don't want to do something the Italians want them to then hopefully the Italians will be less inclined to simply say.. "Nice little country you have here, shame if something were to happen to it".
The Avenger
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Would that mean that Yugoslavia and Greece would also want security guarantees against Italy? If so, could Yugoslavia give up the Hungarian part of Vojvodina to Hungary in exchange for an alliance with Hungary (and perhaps with Romania as well)?
The main external threat for Yugoslavia and Greece is none other than Italy. At least both have gotten lucky that Benny has not decided it was a good time for a parallel war. Of course as it increasingly looks that Germany is going down and he will want to show Italy got something out of the war there might be a window of danger still. Hopefully not though, liberating Austria in the spring... and accidentally making an Italian puppet out of it will be looking less risky.
Of course by the same token I wouldn't be surprised if Entente diplomats were over Belgrade and Athens trying to convince their Balkan Entente allies spring will be a good time to finally open another front. The Entente isn't exactly short of material to reinforce both armies and where will Germany find the men to deal with another million plus men driving into Austria? For that matter someone being in Bucharest trying to convince the Romanians that joining the Entente and liberating Poland ahead of the Soviets is also logical to be happening.
The 'problem' regarding Italian influence is also the fact that it's one of their major trading patner (even more now that Germany has 'problems') and supplier of weapons; the romanian oil industry before the OTL soviet ultimatum and later entering of Romania in the German sphere, had seen a lot of investment from Italy, so Benny and co. have more mean to make their wish know.
What it comes down to in the Balkans is that taking either the Italians or the Soviets for an ally for a guarantee of Security against the other is poisoned, though in inverse to the distance Both Hungary and Romania and maybe Bulgaria can handle the poison of an Italian alliance, Greece and Yugoslavia can maybe handle the Soviets and Turkey is just screwed. France is viewed as non poisonous by pretty much everyone (except maybe Turkey) and the British are even better.
In regards to an attack from a previous Neutral...
The following Neutrals border the 3R and its conquests:
Sweden (/Finland), USSR, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia and Italy.
The only way to get Entente Troops to Sweden is on the railroad and I don't think the shipping volume is there to make it work. The USSR doesn't need or want help. The Romanian border is *tiny* though they would be happy to host the Entente Troops, the Slovakians would probably could be overrun before they get things started. The Hungarians are a possibility, but like the Yugoslavs and the Italians, any attack would be through mountainous terrain. The area of attack into the 3R where the terrain helps the 3R the *least* is on the easternmost end of the current British position.
In regards to an attack from a previous Neutral...
The following Neutrals border the 3R and its conquests:
Sweden (/Finland), USSR, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia and Italy.
The only way to get Entente Troops to Sweden is on the railroad and I don't think the shipping volume is there to make it work. The USSR doesn't need or want help. The Romanian border is *tiny* though they would be happy to host the Entente Troops, the Slovakians would probably could be overrun before they get things started. The Hungarians are a possibility, but like the Yugoslavs and the Italians, any attack would be through mountainous terrain. The area of attack into the 3R where the terrain helps the 3R the *least* is on the easternmost end of the current British position.
The French and the British are also seen as the one that had done nothing in Austria, sold Czechoslovakia and taken a lot of time in supporting Poland in practice; for good or bad Italy at least had put troops on the terrain
But they do Poland as they did not give up that territory in this ATL
Romania at this moment ITTL borders only Soviet-occupied part of Poland.
Also between Slovakia and Romania lies Hungarian territory.
So Romania is a non-factor when considering additional fronts against Germany.
Why it would? Yugoslavia has two to three times the size of the Hungarian army. Besides Hungary is far closer to Italy than to either of the former, not really former in TTL, Balkan Entente nations. The logical set of alliances is for Bulgaria and Hungary to gravitate towards Rome while Greece, Yugoslavia and Turkey aside from the alliance between them look to Britain and France, which after all have given them security guarantees in 1939... which now with Germany going down can honour again. The outlier is Romania that start as Balkan entente under French influence but also had a goodly bit of Italian influence and TTL had to get even closer to Italy due to the Soviet threat. I suspect it might try distancing itself from Italy post war but we shall see.