Another part of Post 165.
Of course, that leaves the issue of potential British reply which is out of his hand. How likely was it for the British political scene to be less favourable to the kind of shipbuilding spending in 1909, i.e. for the 8 ship program to be pared down to 4 or 5?
Germany building more ships before the middle 1900s would not have triggered an immediate response from HMG. The Two Power Naval Standard which was it's goal meant a fleet that was twice as big as the second and third largest naval powers. Until the middle 1900s this meant a navy that could fight the navies of France and Russia, which until the middle 1900s were also Britain's main potential enemies. IOTL some proposed a Three Power Naval Standard, but the Government's reply was that it would have been prohibitively expensive and not even a country as rich as the UK could afford 100% security.
Which is a long way of saying that provided your extra ships don't turn Germany into the second or third largest naval power before the Entente Cordiale and Battle of Tsushima it won't lead to the RN building more warships. But even if it did, they'd be obsolete or obsolescent by 1914 in any case.
IOTL the British Government had abandoned the Two Power Standard in favour of the what Germany built plus two (or what Germany built plus 60%) by the 1910s. However, as far as I know that only applied to capital ships.
For example in the 1890s the cruiser requirement in the Two Power Standard period was F + R + T = B or the number of cruisers that France & Russia had plus 42 trade protection ships equalled the number of cruisers the RN wanted. I don't know how the cruiser requirement from 1905-ish to 1914 was calculated. Has anyone read the relevant Norman Friedman book lately? That might tell us.
If we use the 1890s formula it would have been G + T = B or Germany plus the number needed for trade protection equalled the number of cruisers the RN wanted. I think it would have been 42-45 as the latter was the number of trade protection cruisers the RN wanted between the world wars. The 1906 Law was for 58 cruisers (20 large & 38 small) plus 42 trade protection cruisers equals a British requirement for 100 cruisers. The 1912 Law increased it to 102 cruisers because the number of small cruisers was increased from 38 to 40. Therefore, if the 1900 Law allows 45 small cruisers instead of 38 (which is what I want) the number of German cruisers under the 1906 Law would have been 65 which when the 42 trade protection cruisers were added the total would have been 107 instead of 100.
Another thing to bear in mind about British cruisers is that no small cruisers were built for a few years in the 1900s because Fisher wanted battle cruisers and large destroyers instead of smaller cruisers. Therefore, Germany building a few more cruisers at the same time won't result in the British building more because they weren't building any due to
"office politics".
I don't know how the RN calculated its destroyer requirement from 1905 to 1914. (Has anyone read that Norman Friedman recently too?) I do know that between the world wars it was the number needed to screen the fleet and the number needed for local defence & trade protection. So Germany building more destroyers after 1905 won't result in Britain building more destroyers. Except, I'm proposing that Germany build more destroyers before 1906 (when ) and the same number after 1906.
Germany building twice as many submarines won't make Britain build more submarines for two reasons. One the RN would still have had more submarines. Two the counter to a submarine isn't another submarine, it's more ASW ships, minefields and fixed defences. It also helps that IOTL both sides saw submarines as cost defence vessels.
A saying I read recently by someone involved in the political wrangling of the time was IIRC something like "we went asking for 6, expected 4 and got 8".
FWIW and AIUI the
"we want eight! We won't wait!" programme of 1909-10 was the four ships that were to have been built anyway plus the four missing ships from the Cawdor Programme. That is 12 capital ships should have been built under the three previous building programmes, but eight (12in gunned dreadnoughts) were built. So instead of the four 12in gunned dreadnoughts and battle cruisers of the Dreadnought & Invincible types it got four 13.5in gunned super-dreadnoughts and battle cruisers of the Lion and Orion classes. Which was a considerable improvement in terms of quality.
And on the issue of money, how can we give Tirpitz more money for this somewhat augmented naval program, preferably without affecting much what the army gets?
Light cruisers, destroyers and submarines are cheap or at least they are in relation to capital ships and armoured cruisers. Plus there's nothing to stop you improving the German economy while your at it so Germany can afford a larger navy. Plus (in common with Britain) it's a matter of (
votes) public support (e.g.
"we want eight! We won't wait!"). Therefore, if (
there were enough votes in it) there was enough public support for it the Reichstag would have approved the increases to the KM that Tirpitz wanted in 1912 as well as the increases to the Army.