32 county island of Ireland in NATO

[Pangur]

That's a big point, could Shorts be enlarged before WW2 if you had all Ireland involved? The naval repair yard in Cork would be running all the time supporting the Convoys. As for the infrastructure investment, certainly that would be massive and have ramifications, Airports all over for example, perhaps upgrades to the Ports which would reduce government spending. How any Marshall funds would be spent would be interesting as well, the 50's would be up in the air, depending on what investments they had chosen I would think there might still be levels of immigration but not the terrible levels of OTL. To be honest I think some level of immigration will happen one way or the other (War brides for example)

Totally agree with that. As for migration, it would have happened for sure but not the whole scale thing it was.

The couple of reason I say that was, one because of a plaque in Rosslare about a cargo/passenger ship lost in the War. It actually states that it was sunk by "unknown" aircraft. Lets be honest I really doubt the RAF was sinking ships in the Irish Sea. There's also the suggestion that the bombing of Dublin was a conspiracy from Churchill.

I had heard the rumors about the Dublin bombing and well its tad hard to believe to say the least of it. An uncle of mine sailed with both the British Merchant Navy and Irish shipping - he was sank three times once with the latter each time by U-boats

 

[sparky42]

If you have a situation with a 32 county Ireland there are some interesting options, Shorts built licenced Canberra's so they could be in service, there's the Belfast (would Ireland support it to support Shorts leading to a few more airframes) and the missile systems that Shorts built, were there any unfunded upgrade paths for the Sea/Tiger Cat that Ireland might help convince the UK to spend to support the company?

If you have H&W then Cork might stay as a service yard rather then a full shipyard, so maybe a % more hulls of each class of RN ship (again I'm presuming that any Irish navy would base off the RN).

Here's a question is there any firm idea of how much a difference Ireland could have made in WW2 or is it all guess work? Would the UK end the war in a quantifiable better position?

 

[Pangur]

If you have a situation with a 32 county Ireland there are some interesting options, Shorts built licenced Canberra's so they could be in service, there's the Belfast (would Ireland support it to support Shorts leading to a few more airframes) and the missile systems that Shorts built, were there any unfunded upgrade paths for the Sea/Tiger Cat that Ireland might help convince the UK to spend to support the company?

I don't know about any unfunded plans however I would surprised if there was not at least some dreams and crook scratching by engineers to develop them further.

If you have H&W then Cork might stay as a service yard rather then a full shipyard, so maybe a % more hulls of each class of RN ship (again I'm presuming that any Irish navy would base off the RN).

The RN would be the obvious choice as they have more experience in the waters where the Irish navy would operate.

Here's a question is there any firm idea of how much a difference Ireland could have made in WW2 or is it all guess work? Would the UK end the war in a quantifiable better position?

Irish involvement would surely have have helped with the war against the u-boats

 

[sparky42]

I don't know about any unfunded plans however I would surprised if there was not at least some dreams and crook scratching by engineers to develop them further.

The RN would be the obvious choice as they have more experience in the waters where the Irish navy would operate.

If Ireland uses RN designs perhaps about another half dozen frigates (at first and reducing as costs go up) and maybe a couple of resupply ships per cycle (Type 12's, Type 22s). What effect would that have on the RN if they had more hulls per design build?

If for example the SeaCat was improved assuming OTL Falklands might be different.

There was also a Shorts ASW Seamew in 53. (Why do all UK Carrier planes look a bit off?) It was cancelled after 24 production planes, they were scrapped by 57, would Ireland buy them cheap, particularly as the UK paid for them.

Irish involvement would surely have have helped with the war against the u-boats

I don't doubt that for a second, I was just wondering was there any firm studies, say Ireland reduces convoy loses by 5-10% that would have significant knock on effects to the UK surely.

Also if Ireland is in the Commonwealth you could see significant knock on's for the Battle of Britain (there was 15 pilots that were identified as Free State Irish, I don't know how many Ulster pilots served.) Even 60-75 pilots would be an improvement, using the Imperial flight training system for example.

 

[Pangur]

Also if Ireland is in the Commonwealth you could see significant knock on's for the Battle of Britain (there was 15 pilots that were identified as Free State Irish, I don't know how many Ulster pilots served.) Even 60-75 pilots would be an improvement, using the Imperial flight training system for example.

Would it possible for pilots that have done their training in Canada & else where to have them spend say 4/6 weeks flying from Irish bases to get more familiar with flying in Irish/British conditions? If you did that there would be zero chance of a newbie unarmed pilot meeting up with a German aircraft

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

I once read a book where Ireland joined NATO as a dialogue partner as part of France's contribution, it adressed all the problems in one elegant swoop.

Third World War: The Untold Story, by Gen Sir John Hackett.

Second book of his about a speculative (largely) conventional WW3 fought in August 1985, both written some years before that date. The second book also includes an 'alternative' ending.

For those who've not read it, Irish Army is equipped as a part of French forces in Germany and NATO aircraft fly from Irish bases.

 

[sparky42]

Would it possible for pilots that have done their training in Canada & else where to have them spend say 4/6 weeks flying from Irish bases to get more familiar with flying in Irish/British conditions? If you did that there would be zero chance of a newbie unarmed pilot meeting up with a German aircraft

I don't see why not (why didn't they use the North for that in the first place?).

Either way, a Dominion or a Free State would have the potential to support the RAF during the Battle of Britain with both pilots and ground crew to serve as a reserve for them at the very least.

 

[Pangur]

Third World War: The Untold Story, by Gen Sir John Hackett.

Second book of his about a speculative (largely) conventional WW3 fought in August 1985, both written some years before that date.

For those who've not read it, Irish Army is equipped as a part of French forces in Germany and NATO aircraft fly from Irish bases.

I read both that book and the one before, must get a copy and read it again

 

[Falkenburg]

Intriguing thoughts all.

IMHO the only prayer of a 32 County State is one where Home Rule squeaks in before the Great War.

Unrest is inevitable in the 'Infancy' of the new State but could be contained (for the few months before the Guns of August let rip) by swift and decisive action.

Once the War begins Ireland forms a National Government (with British pressure on the Unionists as required).
Conscription may not be as much of an issue as the War drags on, as long as it is an 'Irish' Government seeking to introduce it.

Wartime Coalition forges political bonds that, if anything, are more important than the shared sacrifices of the men at the Front.

Ireland as an active belligerent would demonstrate its willingness to play a constructive role within the Empire, allaying (some) Unionist fears.
The inevitable perception of British disregard for 'Colonial/Dominion' Forces would bind the 'Irish' ever closer.

If there were to be a Rising in such a Dominion of Ireland (which is possible but even more unlikely than OTL) the Government would probably be even more ruthless in suppressing it than the British, for obvious political reasons.

The only significant difference I can imagine is that the Ringleaders would be hanged rather than shot.

So, with or wthout a Rising, Ireland emerges from the Great War having redeemed its liberty with the blood sacrifice of the Western Front.

The Inter-War Years, the difficult 'Adolescence' of Ireland, are ones of economic hardship and political bickering but (compared to OTL) relative social harmony.

Keeping the two main communities on board would lead to the Irish State being a champion of Non-Sectarian Constitutionalism.
Opponents on both sides could be painted as 'Throwbacks', seeking to keep the People oppressed, clinging to the comforting shackles of history.

The rise of Fascism presents the greatest threat to the emerging State.
Irreconcilable Republicans/Loyalists might find themselves attracted to the ideology as an alternative to the 'Abominable Dominion'.
Obviously each would have very different ideas of their eventual goals but both might view the movement as the best way to abolish the Irish State.

Again the Common Enemy could help strengthen National Identity and social cohesion.
Given the Catholic Church's penchant for supporting Fascist regimes the eventual outbreak of the Second World War could be the final nail in the coffin of Heirarchical influence in Ireland.

The Second World War marks the end of Irelands' 'Adolescence' as a Nation State.
Given Irelands' experiences with Domestic Fascism they are a belligerent from the start, smoothing over whatever residual animosities may have persisted between Britain and Ireland.

During the War, Irelands' main contributions are manpower and foodstuffs.
Efforts would undoubtedly be made to add muscle to the economy but probably wouldn't show much return before the end of the War in Europe.

Nonetheless, Ireland finds itself with a surprising amount of influence Post War as the unofficial representative of the Minor Powers.
The ramifications of this would depend on how the War Effort itself had played out.
It would be conceivable that there could be significant Butterflies for the United Nations as well as NATO.

Waffling now.
Suffice to say Home Rule in Late 1913/Early 1914 seems the only way to a 32 County Ireland that doesn't descend into internicine conflict.
Active participation in the Great War provides the clearest route to that State surviving (and thriving).
Active participation in WWII would seem the most plausible means of Ireland as a Charter Member of NATO.

Falkenburg

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

Almost certain that a 'NATO Ireland' wouldn't be as militarised as the Mediterranean counterparts with similar scale populations and economies.

I'd imagine they'd be pushed to focus their main efforts on -

1 - mine countermeasure vessels, given their location and the fact that such vessels require small crews, are relatively cheap, and can be used effectively as patrol vessels, so serve Irish peacetime needs.

A dozen or so of the above, alongside perhaps a couple of simple corvettes such as the French A69 class.

Presumably a NATO Ireland would've qualified for financial/military assistance from the USA during this period, so presumably 50% or more of capital costs paid direct by USA, so these become far more affordable.

2 - Support infrastructure for NATO, especially as a base for ASW and surveillance aircraft, and secondary/tertiary airfields for strike aircraft.

Can't imagine the Irish bothering with a tactical air force since they'd not be able to afford sufficient decent aircraft by the 1970s/80s, which in terms of numbers would contribute very little alongside other NATO air forces.
Some larger ASW and mine sweeping helicopters, some maritime reconnaissance aircraft and a transport wing.

(A squadron of F5s or A4s - or latterly F16s - would be understandable if Ireland was hundreds of miles from allies, or entirely independent of others and wished to deter incursions, but she sits slap bang behind the rest of NATO's air forces.)

 

[sparky42]

That's pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking for the Dominion solution. I would say that perhaps Ireland could convince the UK to help a bit in the Economy perhaps under the guise of protecting the Western Approaches.

I also think there is a bit of muscle that Ireland could add, could Ireland be included in the Shadow industry program? If Shorts was supporting Coastal Command in Ireland before the war they may have better production runs of the Sunderland for example or some more Sterling's being built and used by the Irish for longer range patrols . You have a couple of Graving docks in Cork as well that might be used for maintenance freeing up some capacity in the UK perhaps.

 

[sparky42]

Almost certain that a 'NATO Ireland' wouldn't be as militarised as the Mediterranean counterparts with similar scale populations and economies.

I'd imagine they'd be pushed to focus their main efforts on -

1 - mine countermeasure vessels, given their location and the fact that such vessels require small crews, are relatively cheap, and can be used effectively as patrol vessels, so serve Irish peacetime needs.

A dozen or so of the above, alongside perhaps a couple of simple corvettes such as the French A69 class.

Presumably a NATO Ireland would've qualified for financial/military assistance from the USA during this period.

2 - Supportinfrastructure for NATO, especially as a base for ASW and surveillance aircraft, and secondary/tertiary airfields for strike aircraft.

Can't imagine the Irish bothering with a tactical air force since they'd not be able to afford sufficient decent aircraft by the 1970s/80s, which in terms of numbers would contribute very little alongside other NATO air forces.
Some larger ASW and mine sweeping helicopters, some maritime reconnaissance aircraft and a transport wing.

(A squadron of F5s or A4s - or latterly F16s - would be understandable if Ireland was hundreds of miles from allies, or entirely independent of others and wished to deter incursions, but she sits slap bang behind the rest of NATO's air forces.)

Problem with that Fellatio is Irish sea conditions, we bought 2 Ton class sweepers and they were rated only as Coastal Ships, the domestic ships of the time were larger at 1000ish tons and still marginal sea boats (the Peacocks while larger than the Ton's they replaced are still marginal coastal ships and will go unreplaced). The modern Irish OPV's are 1500-1900 tons and 80-90m hulls.

Ireland is also different as they would have access to RN designs perhaps at RN costings, it would suit the UK and Ireland to support H&W. Why not the Type 14 or the Type 12M's if you want a cheapish hull to support NATO

As to aircraft I agree with you, those were the suggestions I made in Pangur's thread, like I said there's 24 ASW's going cheap in the 50's along with a canceled 18 out of 150 Canberra's ( could they be used as maritime surveillance and strike as well), there's the Belfast transport in the 60's. There's also the Shorts Sherpa.

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

Problem with that Fellatio is Irish sea conditions, we bought 2 Ton class sweepers and they were rated only as Coastal Ships, the domestic ships of the time were larger at 1000ish tons and still marginal sea boats (the Peacocks while larger than the Ton's they replaced are still marginal coastal ships and will go unreplaced). The modern Irish OPV's are 1500-1900 tons and 80-90m hulls.

That is a consideration, but a trade off for having a NATO navy able to assist in a very important (and quite neglected) role - being able to operate inshore in keeping the ports of Ireland and western UK and France open for resupply.

In any case, larger ocean going MCMVs and corvettes would be able to undertake more distant operations. You can pretty much turn any boat into a minesweeper.

If you want 1950s designs for this NATO/dominion navy, then I'd agree the Type 14s would be very useful to fulfil both roles. Presumably being replaced by similar corvettes in the 1980s.

 

[sparky42]

That is a consideration, but a trade off for having a NATO navy able to assist in a very important (and quite neglected) role - being able to operate inshore in keeping the ports of Ireland and western UK and France open for resupply.

In any case, larger ocean going MCMVs and corvettes would be able to undertake more distant operations. You can pretty much turn any boat into a minesweeper.

If you want 1950s designs for this NATO/dominion navy, then I'd agree the Type 14s would be very useful to fulfil both roles. Presumably being replaced by similar corvettes in the 1980s.

I can see your point about it being a valuable hardware for NATO, I suppose it would come down to decisions within NATO, I was think about some frigates and maybe RFA hulls but maybe MCMVs might work. What's the hull life of the GRP hulls in Atlantic conditions? Or would going up to the size of the US Avenger's make sense. ( the problem being nobody else has that size). The other question I have is many fishing boats out ran the Flowers in the 70's and only stopped due to the 4". If Ireland is relying on the MCMV's I don't see that being a solution, their not fast enough or equipped enough to "encourage" fishing boats.

If you have a full Ireland you're talking about somewhere between 6-7 million (depending on many different factors) so crew sizes may not be the most pressing issue (depends on whether Ireland also fields a continental land force). Could NATO decide on a sea and Airsupport role along with maybe a Marine force leveraging off the Commando's and their equipment?

What about some more of the Type 21's to replace the Type 14's when you get to the 70's, they would give Ireland some for of Frigate hulls, yes it's about a 50% crew increase but by the time they're coming into service this shouldn't be a massive ask.

 

[Fellatio Nelson]

The RAN was involved in the development of the Type 21 alongside the RN, but changed their minds (can't recall why, but sensible to have gone for the OHP class instead) so could see the Irish involved in that.

Hull life depends on a whole range of issues from design to construction, to refits, to how it's used, etc. It'd be at a disadvantage in those waters compared to the Mediterranean or somewhere. For example, the Canadians kept their 1950s frigates in service until the 1980s.

I'd imagine it would be quite possible for them to have designed and built a class of MCMVs for domestic patrol and secondary wartime role. You can also convert a lot of civilian vessels for this rule, to be minesweepers at least.

If this Ireland needed replacement frigate vessels during the late 1970s it might start looking further afield than just the UK for its designs: even build their own, maybe based on foreign designs: simple, rugged corvettes that could police, rescue and, during WW3, provide ASW support.

Something like this http://www.netmarine.net/bat/avisos/destiennedorves/caracter.htm would seem ideal.

 

[sparky42]

The RAN was involved in the development of the Type 21 alongside the RN, but changed their minds (can't recall why, but sensible to have gone for the OHP class instead) so could see the Irish involved in that.

Hull life depends on a whole range of issues from design to construction, to refits, to how it's used, etc. It'd be at a disadvantage in those waters compared to the Mediterranean or somewhere. For example, the Canadians kept their 1950s frigates in service until the 1980s.

I'd imagine it would be quite possible for them to have designed and built a class of MCMVs for domestic patrol and secondary wartime role. You can also convert a lot of civilian vessels for this rule, to be minesweepers at least.

If this Ireland needed replacement frigate vessels during the late 1970s it might start looking further afield than just the UK for its designs: even build their own, maybe based on foreign designs: simple, rugged corvettes that could police, rescue and, during WW3, provide ASW support.

Something like this http://www.netmarine.net/bat/avisos/destiennedorves/caracter.htm would seem ideal.

I suppose it comes down to if Ireland is a Dominion or a Republic. If it's a Dominion that given the proximity to the UK I would see them using the UK training institutes, which might colour their thinking. There's also the industry inertia, Shorts made the SeaCat so would Ireland want to pick a design that's built using that. I've no doubt that Ireland could pay to develop their own designs (and do it far better than OTL and I know people involved in the designs of the OPV's) but I just think that it would be cheaper to take a design that the RN has paid for and use it.

Maybe you might see an earlier OPV/multirole design along the lines of Eithne that could support a helicopter as well. Ireland originally tried hard to find an export market for them, perhaps they could get more traction for such a design if they were in NATO. An advantage of the Type 21 over the A69 is the helicopter deck, this could share with the OPV something like the Lynx.

If Ireland is an Independent Republic then the options would be larger but I think it might depend on what offsets they might get for the new ships.

 

[sparky42]

Looking at some rough numbers for forces that Ireland might deploy Portugal would seem to be a fair comparison, they have about 2 million more in population and 20 billion more in GDP (assuming best case for Ireland).

They have about 39,000ish (wiki but I'm just spitballing) with 21,000 in the Army, including MBT's

They field 5 Frigates, 7 Corvettes, 1 Resupply ship, 2 Subs and 17 OPV's of varying types today.

They have around 25 F-16's, 5 Orions and 6 Hercules, plus others equipment.

If Ireland reduced the Army to something like a Mechanised Brigade and an Amphibious force, they could field a fair naval and air force OOB, which I think would make more sense to NATO given Ireland's position.

 

[NHBL]

To get 32 counties...

One way to get 32 counties, IMVHO, is this:

POD: Archhduke Franz Ferdinand doesn't get shot on schedule, lighting the powder train.

Thus, Home Rule doesn't get postponed due to the war.

Carston had plans to rebel against an Irish government--which would have been a bloody mess. There would have been dificulty putting his rebellion down, as there might have been British soldiers unwilling to fight.

As things are brewing--a Parliament in Dublin is formed, there's unrest, or even rebellion, in Protestant portions of Ulster, and things are on the edge of blowing up...someone else lights Europe's fuse.

With Europe going up in flames, Britian HAS to squelch the problems FAST--and the Dublin government now has firepower to make it easier for Britain to squish the Protestant rebels than the legitimate Dublin government.

Things could go from there, leading to a united Ireland postwar.

This would ned LOTS of work to make it a timeline--but perhaps something could be done...

 

[Pangur]

Almost certain that a 'NATO Ireland' wouldn't be as militarised as the Mediterranean counterparts with similar scale populations and economies.

I'd imagine they'd be pushed to focus their main efforts on -

1 - mine countermeasure vessels, given their location and the fact that such vessels require small crews, are relatively cheap, and can be used effectively as patrol vessels, so serve Irish peacetime needs.

A dozen or so of the above, alongside perhaps a couple of simple corvettes such as the French A69 class.

Presumably a NATO Ireland would've qualified for financial/military assistance from the USA during this period, so presumably 50% or more of capital costs paid direct by USA, so these become far more affordable.

Mine counter measures vessels is certainly a big area where an Irish navy would be of use. One way this could play out would be to have Ireland as one of the major European destinations for Reforger

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_REFORGER

This would imply both mine clearing abilities to cover the Irish coast and the assistance clearing keeping the Western UK British coast open as well. I am thinking along the lines of Shannon being the main destination- major roads then between Bantry bay and Shannon in the west and Rosslare and Dún Laoghaire in the east.

All of this implies some heavy US and UK investment

2 - Support infrastructure for NATO, especially as a base for ASW and surveillance aircraft, and secondary/tertiary airfields for strike aircraft.

That's implied in my comment above

(A squadron of F5s or A4s - or latterly F16s - would be understandable if Ireland was hundreds of miles from allies, or entirely independent of others and wished to deter incursions, but she sits slap bang behind the rest of NATO's air forces.)

If Ireland is a main REFORGER destination then fighter cover would be vital and aircraft like the F-5 would surely be of use for the Irish with right enough US F-4s and later F-15 to keep unwelcome ivans away - Heck I love the irony of this seeing as Aeroflot set up shop in Shannon in the 80`s in OTL - Perhaps we would have seen this in Irish skies (many thanks to Petike's for the art work)

 

[Pangur]

I don't see why not (why didn't they use the North for that in the first place?). .

I have no idea, the idea came to be out of the blue as it were and yeah your question crossed my mind as well.