2018 Presidential Election

[fox~ringo]

Excellent work all around on this TL. Looking forward to the election.

Since it came up, I've been working on a Vinick wins WWTL, but it'll probably come after my TL that fleshes out the WW universe from Nixon to Bartlet (and I'm also hoping to explain the histories of Kumar and Kundu). I've binged watched the series twice with the captions on so I don't think I'll have missed a single detail. It's been exhausting but it should debut this winter.

 

[lord caedus]

politico.com, August 15

Inboden: "I'll stand up to Sam Seaborn" on defense

Chair of the House Armed Services Committee Charles Inboden has thrown down a direct challenge to the person his party wants to make the next president. "I'll stand up to Sam Seaborn," Inboden says in a new campaign ad that begun airing this morning in his southern Mississippi district. "When Senator Seaborn says we need to cut military spending, I'll remind him that unlike him, I've actually put on a military uniform and have spent years after my service working on behalf of veterans and current military personnel. I'll continue to stand up for the people of Mississippi's fourth district and for our military."

Inboden is perhaps the most conservative Democrat in the House, one of the few remaining white southern Democrats that formerly dominated the party's congressional leadership until the 1970s. Like much of the South, Inboden's district has become increasingly Republican as his career has progressed, and now the eleven-term congressman faces his toughest challenger yet in state representative Greg Fournier, who has spent much of his campaign tying Inboden to Seaborn. Although there has not been much polling of the individual race since Fournier won a contested primary to challenge Inboden, the race is currently considered a "toss-up" by almost all political forecasters, including Politico.

Seaborn campaign chairwoman C.J. Cregg issued a terse statement in response to the ad: "Senator Seaborn is grateful for Congressman Inboden's service in the United States Army and for being a strong ally for all veterans and active-duty military members. We look forward to working with him after the election to address the problems in our military that the current administration has neglected to fix."

---------------------

OOC: Here is the list of House committee chairs for the 115th Congress:

Agriculture: Thom Grunder (MN-07)
Appropriations: Tom Peterson (IN-01)
Armed Services: Charles Inboden (MS-04)
Budget: Caroline Martin (MA-03)
Education and the Workforce: Gene Kramer (IL-17)
Energy and Commerce: Arthur Carney (OR-01)
Ethics: Karen Lawson (NY-04)
Financial Services: Jacob Klein (PA-01)
Foreign Affairs: James Gatsby (NY-05)
House Administration: Arthur Conforth (PA-02)
Judiciary: Martin Hallifax (CA-02)
Natural Resources: Kellen Cahill (CA-32)
Oversight and Government Reform: Elijah Mays (MD-07)
Rules: Mary Maskaleris (IL-05)
Science, Space and Technology: Julius Schreibman (NC-13)
Small Business: Jeff Johnson (FL-18)
Transportation and Infrastructure: Walt Hubbard (NJ-01)
Veterans' Affairs: Landon Carmen (CA-35)
Ways and Means: Drake Headley (WI-03)
Intelligence: Alan Trent (MA-07)

 

[lord caedus]

Here's an infobox of the Prime Ministers of Canada from when Canada patriated its constitution in 1982 onwards:

Photos by:

Pierre Trudeau
John Colicos
Geneviève Bujold
Nick Mancuso
André Melançon
Bruce Greenwood
Stefan Brogren
Peter Outerbridge

-----------------

OOC: Most of the broad strokes had been established before. Brogren and Greenwood were previously cast, Dallaire was mentioned in the show itself (although his first name was a thread creation and casting my own), Sansellfort was established as being a former Liberal prime minister so I put him as Dallaire's immediate predecessor (and Jean Chrétien analog). Trudeau is obviously OTL (although I moved his death up a few years so that he passed away before the first season of the show airing), while Corr and Niveau are new, as are most castings. I picked Van Merhalls as Gardner's successor since Kenst had him as what seemed like the frontrunner in his write-up on the subject.

 

[Marky Bunny]

UKPolitics.com
Friday August 17th 2018

Second Televised Debate round-up

So to round two in Birmingham last night. It was less crowded on the stage with only four leaders taking part, Richard Samuels, Andrea Benn, Robert Richardson and Robert Webster. The shorter format of only an hour and less contenders made for a faster more pacey debate. Andrea Benn was far less scripted than a week ago, and less long winded, Richard Samuels performed much the same as a week ago, whilst it was Robert Webster who again landed blows.

He pushed the Prime-Minister on a what he called his "fudge" over a second EU referendum after the Conservative manifesto this week refused to commit to a second vote whilst not ruling it out if the "European Union continued on the path towards a Federated super state. "The British deserve a straight answer to a straight question, are you for a second referendum, yes or no" Samuels hedged his bets whilst Webster launched to a bitter attack on the EU "We where sold a lie five years ago, that the EU would reform, not continue on a path towards a United States of Europe, but what has happened since, they have continued on that path publically, whilst all these three here, hope you haven't noticed".

Webster has been painted in the past as an extremist, but he clearly isn't, he is appealing to Thatcherite Conservatives whilst also appealing to the working class man who in the past voted for Labour, he also deflected well attacks on his past by Robert Richardson over Webster's involvement in the in-famous 1977 "Battle of Lewisham". Webster and his party got a six point bump in the polls after his first debate performance and his second go will not have harmed his chance either. Again I cannot see anything from the debate last night that will change the course of the election result, Labour will make gains, and so will the NPP, but because of the re-drawing of the boundaries of some of the seats (we now have four more seats) that actually will help the Conservatives gain some seats as well.

 

[Marky Bunny]

BBC.CO.UK/Politics
Wednesday August 22nd 2018
General Election Polling
Conservative 39% (+1) 360 seats (+11)
Labour: 26% (-2) 226 seats (-13)
NPP: 19% (+2) 14 seats (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (n/c) 16 seats (n/c)
Socialist Alliance 2% (n/c) 1 seat (n/c)
Green 2% (n.c) 0 seats (n/c)
SNP: 2.5% (n/c)10 Seats (n/c)
PC: 0.5% (n/c) 4 Seats (+1)
Speaker: N/A 1 Seat (n/c)
Northern Ireland: 18 seats (n/a)
Conservative Majority: 70 Seats (+22 seats)
Overall National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 2.64%

 

[RRusso1982]

When are you going to release the next State Of The Race poll? The last one was on July 30th.

 

[Marky Bunny]

When are you going to release the next State Of The Race poll? The last one was on July 30th.

Soon!!

 

[Marky Bunny]

Friday August 24th 2018

75 Days from Election Day
Seaborn v Shallick v Straus

Popular Vote
Seaborn & Hollis 45% (+1)
Shallick & Hunter 44% (+2)
Straus & Buckner 5% (first polling appearance)
Undecided 6%
1.5% swing from Seaborn to Shallick since July 30th poll

Electoral Vote
Shallick & Hunter 206 ev (+26: Arizona 11 ev & North Carolina 15 ev)
Seaborn & Hollis 189 ev (+10: Nevada 6 ev & New Hampshire 4 ev)
Toss-up 143 ev

 

[Marky Bunny]

When are you going to release the next State Of The Race poll? The last one was on July 30th.

It's up

 

[Marky Bunny]

UKPolitics.com
Friday August 24th 2018

Third Televised Debate round-up

So onto Leeds for the third debate, and this was by far the best performance from Andrea Benn. With all the polls pointing to Labour losing ground since the campaign started, she had to had to give a improved performance and she did that. She was less robotic in her answers and they seemed less prepared.

"I am not a revolutionary, and can see the good points from what this Government has achieved, but I know we can do far better and far more, a fairer society, a society where we don't have a "fake court" run by the Department of Justice, where we don't have "fake bailiffs" working on behalf of that court, and a fair welfare system, all the things I know a Labour Government headed by me can achieve" Benn replied on a question about what sort of Government she would lead.

"I know I am not exciting or even should I say it "sexy"" which prompted Richard Samuels to reply to laughs "I am the only here who can say you are sexy Andrea, without of being accused of being sexist".

Samuels was Samuels, nothing changed, as for Webster well it was not best performance so far, but he made no major missteps, although he looked more nervous than before, the thought is that the fact the party is increasing in the polls is putting increased pressure on. Robert Richardson again was much the same, he refused to say if he would support either the Conservatives or Labour in the event (which looks unlikely) of a hung parliament.

This will be the last we will see of Webster and Richardson debating, the final debate next Thursday is a "Town Hall" question and answer session followed by a straight debate between Samuels and Benn.

 

[Pastor Dean]

Friday August 24th 2018

75 Days from Election Day
Seaborn v Shallick v Straus

Popular Vote
Seaborn & Hollis 45% (+1)
Shallick & Hunter 44% (+2)
Straus & Buckner 5% (first polling appearance)
Undecided 6%
1.5% swing from Seaborn to Shallick since July 30th poll

Electoral Vote
Shallick & Hunter 206 ev (+26: Arizona 11 ev & North Carolina 15 ev)
Seaborn & Hollis 189 ev (+10: Nevada 6 ev & New Hampshire 4 ev)
Toss-up 143 ev

Seaborn can win without FL if he runs the table in the rust belt -- PA, OH, MI, WI, MN (gives him 263 EV) and wins OR for a grand total of 270. That's the magic number needed!

 

[Pastor Dean]

That's the classic DEM strategy... win the Northeast, the rust belt states, and the Pacific coast. Florida would be close (and nice to win), but it's not needed if he can run the table as outlined.

 

[heatmaster]

With Straus in the race, his presence could be as a spoiler, particularly in Ohio, need to see state by state polling to see how his being in the race stacks up in individual state's. 2018 could have echoes of 1998, where like Bartlet, one of the contenders wins with less than 50% of the vote. The labor day polling could be interesting. If Bartlet was alive, no doubt he'd get a kick out of seeing Seaborn as his party's nominee, as I recall during an episode of the show while they played chess, of he, Bartlet telling Seaborn that one day he would run for President or would be President. I'm not sure how he phrased it. Seems like the old guy's in the storyline had intuition, e.g. McGarry knowing that C.J. Cregg would be the ideal WHCOS & that Bartlet knew that Seaborn had POTUS written all over him. Go figure.

 

[Excelsior]

If Bartlet was alive, no doubt he'd get a kick out of seeing Seaborn as his party's nominee, as I recall during an episode of the show while they played chess, of he, Bartlet telling Seaborn that one day he would run for President or would be President. I'm not sure how he phrased it.

Sam, you're going to run for president one day. Don't be scared. You can do it. I believe in you.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Sam, you're going to run for president one day. Don't be scared. You can do it. I believe in you.

That's the line by which has guided me, I always knew I had to have Sam Seaborn run for the Presidency!!

 

[Marky Bunny]

With Straus in the race, his presence could be as a spoiler, particularly in Ohio, need to see state by state polling to see how his being in the race stacks up in individual state's. 2018 could have echoes of 1998, where like Bartlet, one of the contenders wins with less than 50% of the vote. The labor day polling could be interesting. If Bartlet was alive, no doubt he'd get a kick out of seeing Seaborn as his party's nominee, as I recall during an episode of the show while they played chess, of he, Bartlet telling Seaborn that one day he would run for President or would be President. I'm not sure how he phrased it. Seems like the old guy's in the storyline had intuition, e.g. McGarry knowing that C.J. Cregg would be the ideal WHCOS & that Bartlet knew that Seaborn had POTUS written all over him. Go figure.

I have state by state polling as it stands, I just haven't had time to post it all yet.
Although in Ohio Straus is on around 10% of the vote, also polling well (above 10%) in Vermont, Washington State, and Alaska (Green issues of course).

 

[Marky Bunny]

Sunday August 26th 2018

States Polling

Alabama
Shallick 65%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 3%
Alaska
Shallick 58%, Seaborn 30%, Straus 12%
Arizona
Shallick 49%, Seaborn 43%, Straus 8%
Arkansas
Shallick 64%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 5%
California
Seaborn 65%, Shallick 26%, Straus 9%
Colorado
Seaborn 48%, Shallick 46%, Straus 6%
Connecticut
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 35%, Straus 5%
DC
Seaborn 90%, Shallick 6%, Straus 4%
Delaware
Seaborn 57%, Shallick 37%, Straus 6%
Florida
Seaborn 47%, Shallick 46%, Straus 7%
Georgia
Shallick 58%, Seaborn 37%, Straus 5%
Hawaii
Seaborn 70%, Shallick 22%, Straus 8%
Idaho
Shallick 66%, Seaborn 28%, Straus 6%
Illinois
Seaborn 56%, Shallick 38%, Straus 6%
Indiana
Shallick 56%, Seaborn 38%, Straus 6%
Iowa
Shallick 49%, Seaborn 46%, Straus 5%
Kansas
Shallick 67%, Seaborn 27%, Straus 6%
Kentucky
Shallick 66%, Seaborn 29%, Straus 5%
Louisiana
Shallick 64%, Seaborn 32%, Straus 4%
Maine
Seaborn 49%, Shallick 40%, Straus 11%
Maryland
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 34%, Straus 6%
Massachusetts
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 33%, Straus 7%
Michigan
Seaborn 47%, Shallick 46%, Straus 7%
Minneosta
Shallick 46%, Seaborn 45%, Straus 9%
Mississippi
Shallick 66%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 3%
Missouri
Shallick 73%, Seaborn 22%, Straus 5%
Montana
Shallick 57%, Seaborn 37%, Straus 6%
Nebraska
Shallick 63%, Seaborn 32%, Straus 5%
Nevada
Seaborn 49%, Shallick 43%, Straus 8%
New Hampshire
Seaborn 50%, Shallick 42%, Straus 8%
New Jersey
Seaborn 56%, Shallick 39%, Straus 5%
New Mexico
Shallick 48%, Seaborn 47%, Straus 5%
New York
Seaborn 62%, Shallick 31%, Straus 7%
North Carolina
Shallick 52%, Seaborn 45%, Straus 3%
North Dakota
Shallick 62%, Seaborn 29%, Straus 9%
Ohio
Shallick 46%, Seaborn 44%, Straus 10%
Oklahoma
Shallick 65%, Seaborn 29%, Straus 6%
Oregon
Seaborn 46%, Shallick 45%, Straus 9%
Pennsylvania
Seaborn 48%, Shallick 47%, Straus 5%
Rhode Island
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 31%, Straus 9%
South Carolina
Shallick 55%, Seaborn 41%, Straus 4%
South Dakota
Shallick 60%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 9%
Tennessee
Shallick 61%, Seaborn 34%, Straus 5%
Texas
Shallick 56%, Seaborn 40%, Straus 4%
Utah
Shallick 75%, Seaborn 20%, Straus 5%
Vermont
Seaborn 62%, Shallick 27%, Straus 11%
Virginia
Shallick 49%, Seaborn 47%, Straus 4%
Washington
Seaborn 52%, Shallick 37%, Straus 11%
West Virginia
Shallick 63%, Seaborn 35%, Straus 2%
Wisconsin
Seaborn 45%, Shallick 44%, Straus 11%
Wyoming
Shallick 72%, Seaborn 25%, Straus 3%

The Electoral Map if all States fell as above:

Seaborn 280 ev
Shallick 258 ev

 

[Mark Kennedy Gallagher]

Sunday August 26th 2018

States Polling

Alabama
Shallick 65%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 3%
Alaska
Shallick 58%, Seaborn 30%, Straus 12%
Arizona
Shallick 49%, Seaborn 43%, Straus 8%
Arkansas
Shallick 64%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 5%
California
Seaborn 65%, Shallick 26%, Straus 9%
Colorado
Seaborn 48%, Shallick 46%, Straus 6%
Connecticut
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 35%, Straus 5%
DC
Seaborn 90%, Shallick 6%, Straus 4%
Delaware
Seaborn 57%, Shallick 37%, Straus 6%
Florida
Seaborn 47%, Shallick 46%, Straus 7%
Georgia
Shallick 58%, Seaborn 37%, Straus 5%
Hawaii
Seaborn 70%, Shallick 22%, Straus 8%
Idaho
Shallick 66%, Seaborn 28%, Straus 6%
Illinois
Seaborn 56%, Shallick 38%, Straus 6%
Indiana
Shallick 56%, Seaborn 38%, Straus 6%
Iowa
Shallick 49%, Seaborn 46%, Straus 5%
Kansas
Shallick 67%, Seaborn 27%, Straus 6%
Kentucky
Shallick 66%, Seaborn 29%, Straus 5%
Louisiana
Shallick 64%, Seaborn 32%, Straus 4%
Maine
Seaborn 49%, Shallick 40%, Straus 11%
Maryland
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 34%, Straus 6%
Massachusetts
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 33%, Straus 7%
Michigan
Seaborn 47%, Shallick 46%, Straus 7%
Minneosta
Shallick 46%, Seaborn 45%, Straus 9%
Mississippi
Shallick 66%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 3%
Missouri
Shallick 73%, Seaborn 22%, Straus 5%
Montana
Shallick 57%, Seaborn 37%, Straus 6%
Nebraska
Shallick 63%, Seaborn 32%, Straus 5%
Nevada
Seaborn 49%, Shallick 43%, Straus 8%
New Hampshire
Seaborn 50%, Shallick 42%, Straus 8%
New Jersey
Seaborn 56%, Shallick 39%, Straus 5%
New Mexico
Shallick 48%, Seaborn 47%, Straus 5%
New York
Seaborn 62%, Shallick 31%, Straus 7%
North Carolina
Shallick 52%, Seaborn 45%, Straus 3%
North Dakota
Shallick 62%, Seaborn 29%, Straus 9%
Ohio
Shallick 46%, Seaborn 44%, Straus 10%
Oklahoma
Shallick 65%, Seaborn 29%, Straus 6%
Oregon
Seaborn 46%, Shallick 45%, Straus 9%
Pennsylvania
Seaborn 48%, Shallick 47%, Straus 5%
Rhode Island
Seaborn 60%, Shallick 31%, Straus 9%
South Carolina
Shallick 55%, Seaborn 41%, Straus 4%
South Dakota
Shallick 60%, Seaborn 31%, Straus 9%
Tennessee
Shallick 61%, Seaborn 34%, Straus 5%
Texas
Shallick 56%, Seaborn 40%, Straus 4%
Utah
Shallick 75%, Seaborn 20%, Straus 5%
Vermont
Seaborn 62%, Shallick 27%, Straus 11%
Virginia
Shallick 49%, Seaborn 47%, Straus 4%
Washington
Seaborn 52%, Shallick 37%, Straus 11%
West Virginia
Shallick 63%, Seaborn 35%, Straus 2%
Wisconsin
Seaborn 45%, Shallick 44%, Straus 11%
Wyoming
Shallick 72%, Seaborn 25%, Straus 3%

The Electoral Map if all States fell as above:

Seaborn 280 ev
Shallick 258 ev

Seeing New Mexico blue (red) gave me a heart attack. Btw, Straus in enough of a spoiler to make Seaborn lose NM but not enough to make him lose NV?

 

[lord caedus]

Seeing New Mexico blue (red) gave me a heart attack. Btw, Straus in enough of a spoiler to make Seaborn lose NM but not enough to make him lose NV?

Could you please not quote the entire post when it's huge like this one?

 

[Mark Kennedy Gallagher]

Could you please not quote the entire post when it's huge like this one?

Oky