First after both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush being one term presidents, I don't see the Republicans nominating Jeb Bush in 2008 even if he ran. Also we should remember the economy didn't become a really major issue in the 2008 campaign until September. Remember before the economy took over as the biggest issue in the 2008 election, Iraq and foreign policy was still the major story early in the 2008 election cycle. One of the reasons in OTL that Obama was able to beat Hillary was because of her yes vote on the Iraq war resolution.
Iraq & Afghanistan
Now going back to 2004 Kerry flips 120,000 votes in Ohio and he wins. He likely would've appointed somebody like Sam Nunn to be his Secretary of Defense. Calls from liberals for him to end the Iraq war would be strong in 2005 as it continued to become a quagmire. By late 2005/early 2006, Kerry would have had to announce a draw down of troops and a withdrawal by the end of 2007. The pressure would be too strong if the casualties continued to rise through Kerry's first year in office. Kerry would likely say the focus needs to be on Afghanistan and destroying al-Queda. Of course Republicans in congress would've opposed Kerry on this, especially John McCain. This would've the basis behind McCain's run for president in 2008. Kerry would have drawn down troops in Iraq and increased the number of troops in Afghanistan. But al-Queda has already spread around the world and by mid-2007 Kerry would decide to focus on counter-terrorism. For many of the same reasons Obama in OTL pulled out fully in Iraq, Kerry does the same and the Iraq war ends in August of 2007. Iraq eventually falls into civil war.
Hurricane Katrina
Kerry would have likely appointed Richard Serino to be head of FEMA. Serino was Boston's EMS chief and is currently the Deputy Administrator of FEMA in OTL and Kerry supported his nomination in 2009. Serino's experience with state and local emergency management would have helped Kerry more than Michael Brown's experience as International Arabian Horse Association commissioner helped Bush. If Kerry had been on vacation like Bush was when Katrina hit, Kerry would've likely have been at his home in Massachusetts. So there would have no photo of Kerry looking out the window of Air Force One as it flies over the disaster area. Kanye West would not have said on live TV that John Kerry doesn't care about black people. But there still would have been a slow response. Under the Bush administration FEMA was made a part of the Department of Homeland Security, so both departments had overlapping staffs. Kerry likely would not have changed that after taking office because of the issue of counter-terrorism. So much the federal response after the storm would have been the same. But Kerry would have avoided the appearance of looking uncaring because he wouldn't have had an unqualified crony at FEMA and wouldn't have flown over the Gulf Coast on his way back to the White House.
Congress & the Supreme Court
Tom DeLay's scandals still happen and he is gone by the end of 2005. House Speaker Dennis Hastert and new Majority Leader John Boehner are not as partisan as DeLay and have a good working relationship with President Kerry. Considering Kerry's ties with senate he has a good relationship with the GOP controlled senate. They are able to get a few small domestic things done but nothing major. When Justice O'Connor announces her retirement in June of 2005, the battles with the senate would began. Kerry nominates Sonia Sotomayor to replace her and conservatives are strongly opposed to her confirmation. Liberals who had been upset with Kerry over Iraq come to Kerry's and Sotomayor's defense. The confirmation hearings are long and brutal. During Sotomayor's confirmation battle, Chief Justice Rehnquist dies. Kerry not wanting to have another battle on his hands with the senate decides to pick somebody who could be easily confirmed by the GOP controlled senate, while also keeping liberals and Democrats happy. He nominates Senator Patrick Leahy to be the next Chief Justice. Leahy is the ranking Democrat on the Senate's Judiciary committee and because of his ties to the senate his confirmation goes smoother than Sotomayor's. Having no legitimate reason to hold up Sotomayor's nomination any further, she finally is approved by the Judiciary committee and confirmed by the senate. By October of 2005 the Leahy court goes into session shifting the court from conservative to liberal. In the spring of 2008 David Souter decides to retire. President Kerry feeling pressure from African-American supporters who fear the black voters are disillusioned with President Kerry, encourages him to appoint a black nominee. Kerry nominates his Attorney General Deval Patrick to replace Justice Souter. Since this would be a liberal replacing a liberal, conservatives don't put up much opposition. Deval Patrick is confirmed by the senate in August of 2008.
The 2006 Midterm elections
Rep. Ed Markey would have likely ran for and won Kerry's senate seat in a special election in 2005. With Kerry in the White House and the Democratic base upset about the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Democrats are nowhere near as enthused as they were in OTL in 2006. But the GOP scandals still happen (Tom DeLay, Jack Abramoff, Mark Foley). The Republican voters are a little more enthused than Democratic voters and the Republicans pick up a small number of seats in the House (maybe 3 or 4). Giving them a 236-199 majority. In the senate there is still a YouTube and cable news and the "Mecaca" gaffe for George Allen still happens. So he still loses narrowly to Jim Webb. DeWine in Ohio, Santorum in Pennsylvania, and Chafee is Rhode Island all still lose. Howard Dean wins the special election to fill Leahy's old senate seat. But Jim Talent in Missouri and Conrad Burns in Montana both win re-election. Giving the Republicans a 51 seat majority in the senate after the 2006 elections.
The Financial crisis of 2008
Kerry appoints Stuart Eizenstat (Clinton's last Deputy Treasury Secretary) to be his his Secretary of the Treasury. Kerry would have wanted to appoint James A. Johnson or Roger Altman to head the Treasury. But their scandals would have prevented them from being able to get confirmed by the Republican controlled senate in early 2005. So Kerry chooses the scandal-less Eizenstat, wanting to avoid a political battle over cabinet nominees. But he still would have nominated Robert Rubin later in 2005 to replace Alan Greenspan and Federal Reserve Chairman. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 still happens (since Rubin played a major roll in it going back to his days as SotT under Clinton). But with Eizenstat at treasury TARP is less likely to focus primarily on the big banks and more of the money would go to smaller local banks who would be more willing to make loans to small businesses. The auto bailout still happens but months earlier.
The 2008 elections
Now considering the financial crisis didn't really hit until the fall of 2008, the primaries and conventions were over by then. The biggest issue from fall of 2007 to spring of 2008 is Kerry ending the Iraq war (and their civil war) and his handling of Afghanistan. During this time (like in OTL) the unemployment rate hovers around 5%. John McCain wins the Republican primaries beating Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani and locks up the nomination by early April of 2008. But conservatives criticize McCain for not being conservative enough. Republican voters are not enthused and Kerry leads McCain in most polls by a small margin going into the summer of 2008. McCain feels pressure to pick a more conservative running mate even though he wants to choose Joe Lieberman, Colin Powell, or Lindsay Graham. McCain chooses Kansas Senator Sam Brownback to be his running back to appease the social conservatives in the Republican party. After Labor Day in 2008 the economy and rising unemployment rate starts to become more of an issue. The McCain campaign starts to criticize the Kerry administration on the economy. The Kerry campaign runs ads with a newspaper quote from McCain saying
"I’m going to be honest. I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated."
The banking crisis hits and the economy becomes the number one issue. McCain tries to put the blame on the Kerry and Clinton administrations. Kerry puts the blame on Bush and economic policies going back to the Reagan years. Kerry also points out the Phil Gramm is McCain's top economic adviser and Gramm's role in deregulating the banks. The voters believe both parties had a hand in causing the financial crisis. But Kerry and MCain are both in agreement about TARP. Brownback privately voices his opposition to TARP but to shows solidarity with McCain and votes for it. The finacial crisis gives Kerry the chance to use the bully pulpit and the power of incumbency. Kerry in an Oval Office address proposes New Deal type of stimulus policies to get Americans back to work. McCain and congressional Republicans criticize Kerry's "big government" plans but they offer no concise message as an alternative plan. McCain position on Iraq and his lack of details on fixing the economy hurts him going into election day. Kerry defeats McCain in the general election. This time he wins the popular vote also.
John Kerry/John Edwards (284)
John McCain/Sam Brownback (254)
