1953 Iranian coup d'etat Operation Ajax fails

[FiendslayerPrime1976]

In 1953 the democratically-elected prime minister of Iran Mohammad Mossadegh was overthrown by the CIA in a coup d'etat.
Appointed prime minister in April 1951, Mossadegh was a popular leader, introducing numerous social reforms, and then nationalizing the AIOC (Anglo-Iranian Oil Company) on May 1; explaining in a speech that by doing so "Iran will have achieved it's economic and political independence".
This did not sit well with Britain or the United States, who were fearful of a communist takeover, and they put together a plot to overthrow Mossadegh - Operation Ajax - which was put into action in August 1953.
The end result was overthrow of the Iranian government on August 19, the Shah's return to power, and the imprisonment of Mossadegh, who died in 1967 still under house arrest. This also sowed the seeds for the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a nation hostile to both the United States and Israel.

Now… Suppose the coup didn't succeed? There had been a previous coup attempt shortly before which had failed after Mossadegh got wind of it. What if this coup failed too - for some reason or other? Would the CIA have attempted a third attempt? Would their involvement have been discovered? What would be the ultimate fate of Mossadegh? And how would this affect the Iran and the Middle East in the future? Would there have been an 1979-style Iranian Revolution, and would American/Iranian relations been better of worse than in OTL?

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Mossadegh goes Red (Soviet Camp) then things get interesting

 

[Nocrazy]

Actually, I have that the guy wasn't a communist, and Iran could have ended up being one of our closest allies in the war on terror. So, I expect that he would want to restore relations.

 

[NKVD]

Mossadegh goes Red (Soviet Camp) then things get interesting

In the sense that Egypt and Syria "went red", maybe, but Mossadeq wasn't a communist by any means. The communist crap that was behind Western support for a coup was an exaggeration of the fact that communists (Tudeh and maybe some other factions, I don't know) were part of the ruling coalition (or something like that).

 

[TinyTartar]

Iran going red would be interesting. Its likely that in this case, assuming the regime in place is long lasting, which it would be in this case, as unlike with the Shah, the fundies would have to deal with Russian tanks (which would have been so awesome had Iran been in a Mexico situation and our tanks could have smashed the mullahs).

It also means likely that the Mujihadeen get fucked in the 80s, as Iran would be right next door obeying the order of Moscow.

Iran sending support in the 60s against Israel might not be out of the realm of possibility. How effective that support is probably will be much like that of Iraq, too little, and too late.

Saddam would not fuck with Iran if it was a Soviet puppet. That might make him stronger for Gulf War I.

 

[Lalli]

Iran going red would be interesting. Its likely that in this case, assuming the regime in place is long lasting, which it would be in this case, as unlike with the Shah, the fundies would have to deal with Russian tanks (which would have been so awesome had Iran been in a Mexico situation and our tanks could have smashed the mullahs).

It also means likely that the Mujihadeen get fucked in the 80s, as Iran would be right next door obeying the order of Moscow.

Iran sending support in the 60s against Israel might not be out of the realm of possibility. How effective that support is probably will be much like that of Iraq, too little, and too late.

Saddam would not fuck with Iran if it was a Soviet puppet. That might make him stronger for Gulf War I.

Like previous posters have already said, Mossadeq wasn't communist so Iran wouldn't become communist state. It would probably end as constitutional monarchy or moderate left wing parliamentary republic if shah doesn't accept being just formal head of state. We wouldn't avoid Islamic republic and Iran would be friendly relationship with Israel and Western nations.

 

[GeneralInTheShell]

Civil War, Mossadegh's popularity had crashed in the months before the coup. His coalition was broken, the Tudeh and the Ayatollah (and by extension large amount of the Iranian populous) had turned against his increasingly authoritarian governance. If Ajax gets the go ahead and somehow fails it will mean civil war as the Soviet's aren't going to sit back and wait for another coup to be launched as it's clear that Mossadegh's regime is to unstable to survive at this point. Without the kind of support from many in the Iranian military that Ajax had, I doubt the communists will be able to take control of the entire nation and the country will descend into three sided civil war.

 

[TinyTartar]

Like previous posters have already said, Mossadeq wasn't communist so Iran wouldn't become communist state. It would probably end as constitutional monarchy or moderate left wing parliamentary republic if shah doesn't accept being just formal head of state. We wouldn't avoid Islamic republic and Iran would be friendly relationship with Israel and Western nations.

Mossadegh was actually quite unpopular by the time of the coup, and had alienated substantial portions of the population with actions seen as either too liberal, or too authoritarian. He was making a lot of people angry with him, and some attempt at a coup was likely inevitable, however, it succeeded because of the foreign help. A foreign coup that somehow fails would complicate things radically, and mean that Mossadegh appeals to help, and he won't get that help from the Iranian people, many of whom hated him, but rather from the Soviets, who saw pragmatic opportunism in helping him.

Mossadegh may not have been a Communist, but he was a survivalist and would go Communist to maintain power, and therefore, Iran would be a Soviet Puppet in this case.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Mossadegh was actually quite unpopular by the time of the coup, and had alienated substantial portions of the population with actions seen as either too liberal, or too authoritarian. He was making a lot of people angry with him, and some attempt at a coup was likely inevitable, however, it succeeded because of the foreign help. A foreign coup that somehow fails would complicate things radically, and mean that Mossadegh appeals to help, and he won't get that help from the Iranian people, many of whom hated him, but rather from the Soviets, who saw pragmatic opportunism in helping him.

Mossadegh may not have been a Communist, but he was a survivalist and would go Communist to maintain power, and therefore, Iran would be a Soviet Puppet in this case.

Yup. Mossadegh was a pragmatist and would have gone red to stave off his ousting.
A Red Iran would be an excellent TL btw

Major Butterflies for the Region

 

[hzn5pk]

In a funny twist of fate if Iran would be in the Soviet camp in the 50's, 60's and 70's is that the revolution sstill occurs but instead of the USA being the great Satan, it is the USSR.

1979 or 1980 - The Iranian Revolution still occurs. The Soviet embassy is over ran by Iranian students and hostages are taken.

The Soviets will not have any of this, Soviet and Iraqi tanks roll on Tehran. Soviets wind up being tied down in Afghanistan and Iran. They are seen as evil occupiers.

Charlie Wilson has a field day.

Soviets get sanctioned by West. Iran gets weapons from West.

Soviet economy crumbles as they cannot fight both Afghan and Iranian insurgency as well as keep up with the USA in an arms race. Something has to give. When people do not have toilet paper and their sons are coming home in body bags they want change.

Late '80's - After Soviets leave, Iranian Republic set up as a theocracy. Closer ties with USA.

Iraq invades Kuwait as Saddam wants more territory after gaining the Sunni portion of Iran and some of the Iranian oil fields. He gets greedy.

USA steamrolls Iraq with global coalition that includes Iran.

Iran gets back original borders in peace deal. Kuwait restored.

USA gets bases in gulf states and Iran as USA seen as lesser of evils. No USA bases in Saudi Arabia.

Osama Bin Laden is not pissed off at USA because there are no infidels in the holy land of Islam.

World Trade Center does come down because it is demolished for newer, skyscrapers to go up.

No Iraq War in 2003

 

[GeneralInTheShell]

Iraq invades Kuwait as Saddam wants more territory after gaining the Sunni portion of Iran and some of the Iranian oil fields. He gets greedy.

If the Soviet's have control over Iran, I doubt that Saddam will come to power in Iraq. In the summer of 1959 Abd al-Karim Qasim ordered a minor crackdown on the Iraqi Communist Party because of its growing strength. Some in the Iraqi Communist Party suggested that they launch a coup against Qasim, but ultimately the conservatives in the party one out and no coup was ever launched resulting in the slow dismemberment of the party and growing repression. If Iran is communist then the radicals that supported deposing Qasim may very well have enough support to overthrow Qasim.

 

[takerma]

Civil war probably. There is a wide variety of people who really hate him. Depending on how coup fails lots of them will give it another go. USSR will not just sit an wait and might either support him or see if they can launch a coup of their own relying on some other military faction.

Idea that Iran was some sort of Western Democracy in waiting that evil CIA and UK destroyed comes from the other players in this game, they had their offices in Moscow.

US would look for another player in the region to balance things out. I would bet that if things develop around Suez US would be on Israeli side. Egypt will get crushed and become US puppet?