1942 on the Eastern Front...

Romulus Augustulus

1942 on the Eastern Front was quite a bad year for the Axis, as they suffered numerous various reverses at Soviet hands. They were able to hold off the Soviets until 1943 however, due to various strategic mistakes on the part of the Soviets.

Now, what if the Soviets had done better in 1942 and had managed to exploit their gains even further? What PODs or combinations of PODs would be required in order to allow the tide to turn permanently in favor of the Soviet Union in 1942, perhaps with an earlier Kursk-like scenario, and what PODs would this scenario result in? What effect would this have on the post-war situation, and how would relations between the US and the USSR have been? Finally, what of the effect on the War in the Pacific? Assume it goes just as well for the Allies as in OTL...
 

DMA

I think any successful large Soviet counter-attack is probably impossible until the Axis armies have run out of puff. The only exception is that Stalin keeps out of military planning & allows Zhukov to conduct the 1941 "Christmas Offensives" around Moscow his way instead of Uncle Joe's way. This could push the Germans back a considerable distance with fewer Soviet casualites.

Yet in 1942 the Germans will attack once again. However, with more troops & equipment, the Soviets could try a number of things including a fighting withdrawal in the south, instead of the fighting to the last man routine. This could be especially the case around Stalingrad, where I'd imagine the Germans would attack again (in one way or another). But because they have far more troops, the Soviets may not have to wait until winter to conduct the Stalingrad counter-offensive, but commence it early autumn. If they can thus encircle the 6th German Army earlier, they'll open a hole in the German lines, which the Soviets could go pouring through before the weather restricts large scale movement. Thus the southern front is forced back towards the Romanian border.

With such a disaster on their southern front, the Germans would have to cease offensive operations on the northern front, with the defenders of Leningrad given a much needed rest. Meanwhile the German Centre comes under a great deal of pressure due to the fact that it's being outflanked to the south. This, in turn, ensures that Moscow is relieved of any further attacks. And all this before the 1942 winter sets in.

Then things can get interesting as the Soviets, copying the tactics from the previous winter, could once again counter attack around Leningrad, particularly along the coast, pushing the Germans back towards Estonia, whilst at the same time forcing the Germans together into the centre. If the Soviets are good enough, they may even take much of Estonia by Feburary 1943. This will mean that the German centre will stick out like a sore thumb between the Dvina River to the north & the Pripyat Marches to the south. Hitler will obvious repeat his no retreat order, so the German Centre could suffer the same OTL fate as it did in 1944 during Operation Bragation, but a year earlier.
 

Redbeard

Banned
AFAIK the Soviets were extremely stretched in early 1942, both on trained manpower and materiel. I actually think they were outnumbered on most essential accounts. In that context you could fear that most PoD's would have the Soviets collapse in 1942.

But a larger part of the Soviet 1941 Army surviving the onslaught in 1941 would be interesting. Could be by Stalin actually believing the warnings he got about a German attack and deploys the 150+ Divisions more sensibly (i.e. deeper). The Soviet Army retreating in good order eastward while inflicting casualties on the Germans will have the whole world say: "1812 one more time!". That would indeed take self-confidence out of even the Germans, but on the other hand also have them start winter preparations much earlier.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard
 

Tom_B

Romulus Augustulus said:
1942 on the Eastern Front was quite a bad year for the Axis, as they suffered numerous various reverses at Soviet hands. They were able to hold off the Soviets until 1943 however, due to various strategic mistakes on the part of the Soviets....
Click to expand...

The is an not completely accurate oversimplification of the Russian Front in 1942. After recovering from the Russian winter offensive the Germans did have the initiative. Initially their offensive was successful but

1] Stalin for the first and last time was willing to authroize large sacale withdrawals to prevent encirclement and destruction.

2] Hitler set too many conflicting objectives and changed his mind repeatedly about what was the #1 priority

3] Mountains offer advantages for the defenders

4] Stalngrad

Some suggestions for how to make the Russians do better in 1942:

1] DMA's suggestion about Stalin not overruling Zhukov on the narrow vs broad counteroffensive has some merit

2] Read Glantz's book on Operation Mars. There are several points in that battle where things could've turned in the Soviets way though not to the extent of the grand destruction of most of Army Group Center.

3] Have Hitler get pissed at Manstein and remove him. It was the brilliance of Manstein at Kharkov in 1943 that let the Germans stabilize the line.

Tom
 

Romulus Augustulus

DMA said:
I think any successful large Soviet counter-attack is probably impossible until the Axis armies have run out of puff. The only exception is that Stalin keeps out of military planning & allows Zhukov to conduct the 1941 "Christmas Offensives" around Moscow his way instead of Uncle Joe's way. This could push the Germans back a considerable distance with fewer Soviet casualites.

Yet in 1942 the Germans will attack once again. However, with more troops & equipment, the Soviets could try a number of things including a fighting withdrawal in the south, instead of the fighting to the last man routine. This could be especially the case around Stalingrad, where I'd imagine the Germans would attack again (in one way or another). But because they have far more troops, the Soviets may not have to wait until winter to conduct the Stalingrad counter-offensive, but commence it early autumn. If they can thus encircle the 6th German Army earlier, they'll open a hole in the German lines, which the Soviets could go pouring through before the weather restricts large scale movement. Thus the southern front is forced back towards the Romanian border.

With such a disaster on their southern front, the Germans would have to cease offensive operations on the northern front, with the defenders of Leningrad given a much needed rest. Meanwhile the German Centre comes under a great deal of pressure due to the fact that it's being outflanked to the south. This, in turn, ensures that Moscow is relieved of any further attacks. And all this before the 1942 winter sets in.

Then things can get interesting as the Soviets, copying the tactics from the previous winter, could once again counter attack around Leningrad, particularly along the coast, pushing the Germans back towards Estonia, whilst at the same time forcing the Germans together into the centre. If the Soviets are good enough, they may even take much of Estonia by Feburary 1943. This will mean that the German centre will stick out like a sore thumb between the Dvina River to the north & the Pripyat Marches to the south. Hitler will obvious repeat his no retreat order, so the German Centre could suffer the same OTL fate as it did in 1944 during Operation Bragation, but a year earlier.
Click to expand...

Okay...so the POD is that Stalin gets a minor cold for a few days in late 1941. He recovers, but as a butterfly, he allows Zhukov to have his way in the counteroffensives around Moscow, although I'm not exactly familiar with what than entails...

As a ripple from that, the German attack on Moscow goes significantly worse than in OTL, their gains being somewhat smaller and attained at a higher cost than in OTL, and as a further ripple, the Soviet counteroffensive is more succesful than in OTL, pushing the Germans back even further and inflicting even greater casualties on the Germans than in OTL. With more Soviet troops available, what DMA outlined does in fact occur...by late 1943/early 1944, Soviet troops will have reached the border of the Soviet Union at the outbreak of hostilities with Germany, and perhaps victory for the Soviets on the Eastern Front might just come in 1944, with all the ripples THAT entails...
 

DMA

Romulus Augustulus said:
Okay...so the POD is that Stalin gets a minor cold for a few days in late 1941. He recovers, but as a butterfly, he allows Zhukov to have his way in the counteroffensives around Moscow, although I'm not exactly familiar with what than entails...
Click to expand...


As Tom B posted, it requires several narrow front "small" offensives with limited objectives, which are though continuous, instead of the one huge broad front types. Essentially you don't attack major defensive centres, but around them in order to outflank them, thus forcing them to retreat overall.


Romulus Augustulus said:
As a ripple from that, the German attack on Moscow goes significantly worse than in OTL, their gains being somewhat smaller and attained at a higher cost than in OTL, and as a further ripple, the Soviet counteroffensive is more succesful than in OTL, pushing the Germans back even further and inflicting even greater casualties on the Germans than in OTL. With more Soviet troops available, what DMA outlined does in fact occur...by late 1943/early 1944, Soviet troops will have reached the border of the Soviet Union at the outbreak of hostilities with Germany, and perhaps victory for the Soviets on the Eastern Front might just come in 1944, with all the ripples THAT entails...
Click to expand...


Yeah - very interesting from the West's point of view. Maybe all of Germany has been occupied by the end of 1944 (meaning WWII is over), which means the UK & USA have only liberated France, Belgium & maybe Holland, whilst even Denmark is under Soviet occupation. Makes for an interesting Cold War...
 

Romulus Augustulus

Maybe because of ripples from the better Soviet performance in the war, we see nuclear weapons tested earlier? It would be interesting to see the first tests in 1944, with some series production of them by early 1945? Maybe they come early enough to enable more of them to be used? or maybe they aren't used in warfare in WW2, but everyone nonetheless gets them, and with no Hiroshima or Nagasaki to warn them of the dangers...
 

DMA

Romulus Augustulus said:
Maybe because of ripples from the better Soviet performance in the war, we see nuclear weapons tested earlier? It would be interesting to see the first tests in 1944, with some series production of them by early 1945? Maybe they come early enough to enable more of them to be used? or maybe they aren't used in warfare in WW2, but everyone nonetheless gets them, and with no Hiroshima or Nagasaki to warn them of the dangers...
Click to expand...


Well the Americans will get them first as the Russians had nothing like the Manhattan Project until later. So I can't see Stalin pulling a nuclear rabbit out of his butt. :D And, considering the very nature of the science involved, I'd say that they could only get them about 6 months earlier. So they're still too late to use on Germany.

It also depends if Japan has entered the war. If so, they'll get used on Japan.

Now, if you're thinking about a nuclear war in Europe, just after Germany is defeated, well it wouldn't be much of one as the USA only has two to use, as the first two took a few months to construct. Furthermore, it doesn't get much better than that, say one a month, for a couple of years.
 

Straha

Banned
DMA said:
So I can't see Stalin pulling a nuclear rabbit out of his butt. :D
Click to expand...
now I know some people are into gerbilling but wouldn't a rabbit hurt since its a bit big to be put THERE? :eek: :eek: :eek:
 

backstab

Banned
Do you think that if the Russians got a larger chunk (or the lot) of Germany and may be even Denmark this might have led to a Soviet - Allied conflict once the US finished off Japan ?
 

Straha

Banned
backstab said:
Do you think that if the Russians got a larger chunk (or the lot) of Germany and may be even Denmark this might have led to a Soviet - Allied conflict once the US finished off Japan ?
Click to expand...
probalby not although we have a more hardline cold war
 
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