masteroftheveiledthreat
Banned
Maybe this takes ASBs, but, I don't think so. What if Hitler, Goring, Lenin, Stalin, and Trotsky all die in 1916, does it make much difference over the next 97 years?
1916: Future despot die-off
- Thread starter masteroftheveiledthreat
- Start date
I don't know about that. Goring got a death sentence at Nuremburg, but maybe replace Trotsky with Tojo?
I can't speak for Goring but whilst Trotsky was often held up as the better alternative to Stalin, hardly a difficult achievement, he was no paragon of virtue either. From what I can remember of his actions when leading the military, working with the Cheka, and as part of the governing leadership he could be just as brutal and certainly didn't have clean hands.
Trostky could make the list being that he was still as radical and violent as Most Bolsheviks. If this doesn't do jack to war performance we are gonna see an even larger Russia screw. The Bolsheviks where the only Russian faction dedicated to a separate peace with Germany completely against aiding the Provisional Government, not only are the Bolsheviks nipped in the bud, with possibly no effective leaders, meaning that when the Tsar does flee, the provisional government is still going to keep fighting. Depending on what specifically happens we could have much different multi-sided Russian Civil War with SR's,Kadets,The Army,Monarchists,Anarchists and separatists.
As for other effects on the world it could butterfly Fascism as we know it or greatly kill it's support with no demonized threat from Communism, and Russian Civil War giving it a very bad image. On that no National Socialist German Workers party as we know them. We could have more states leaving the former Russian Empire, Japan could possibly try and expand it's influence more in the Far East of Siberia Everything in else would require at good deal of knowledge or it just butterfly madness.
As for other effects on the world it could butterfly Fascism as we know it or greatly kill it's support with no demonized threat from Communism, and Russian Civil War giving it a very bad image. On that no National Socialist German Workers party as we know them. We could have more states leaving the former Russian Empire, Japan could possibly try and expand it's influence more in the Far East of Siberia Everything in else would require at good deal of knowledge or it just butterfly madness.
ASB?
Why?
There is nothing of supernatural if five persons die in 1916!
There was a war in Europe,there was not antibiotics and all these guys lived a violent life.
Thousand and thousand of men are die in 1916,why not these five bastards?
All of them? Yeah that actually is pretty ASB. I mean Stalin, Hitler, and Goering could probably be taken out easily but Lenin and Trotsky where established figures in Russian Radical circles and both where very experienced at dealing with the Tsarist states secret police so they're not just gonna get caught in some raid. If you where a radical who survived in the Tsarist state for any ammount of time you where an atleast somewhat crafty person capable of outthinking the secret police.
But i still don't think its ASB(but damn close). I see no reason to believe that in some alternate history they all did. Not necessarily all by the same means. There could have be accidents, combat, disease,..etc. Just because they are historical figures doesn't mean probability stopped.
Similar people will replace them. The underlining issues that they took advantage of to gain power are still there. It might no be any better of a world. Just different.
Even if this is true, Hitler & Stalin had an tremendous influence on how their dystopias looked. Eliminating them from the timeline will change history drasticly.
While Hitler was in combat, the German army had 13M men under arms, of which 2M died. So that's less than a 1/6 of his dying. Also, about half of those losses had already happened, and missed him - so his chance of dying is even less (about 1 in 10).
Goering, being a flyer, would be at much greater risk - but he was an ace, an expert pilot who killed rather than being killed. At worst 1 in 5 chance of dying.
Lenin was safe in exile in Switzerland. 1 in 100 chance.
Trotsky was safe in exile in France. 1 in 100 chance.
Stalin was in prison in Siberia. 1 in 20 chance.
For all five of them, about 1 in (10 x 5 x 100 x 100 x 20) = 1 in 10,000,000, which is ASB territory.
Suppose the odds are substantially better: 2 in 10, 2 in 5, 5 in 100, 5 in 100, 4 in 20. That works out to 1x2x5x5x4 in 5x5x100x100x20 = 1 in 25,000 - still extremely long odds.
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RavenMM
Banned
What? So me winning the lottory (1:140000000) last week would count as ASB? 1:10000000 sounds good to me, you don't need magic for it to happen, it's just improbable
Well it will be different but the point im trying to get at is that even without these monsters, Europe isn't going to be peace and prosperity.
Hitler had two close encounter with death during WWI
a grenade impact in trench were he was, second was a gas attack. both of them could kill him
Göring could die during air combat.
Göring had major role in history of NSDAP and Hitler rise to power,
because as decorated War Hero, Herman Göring had the connection that Hitler needed for his Political plans.
take the two out of the equation history of Germany go another direction
the NDAP is a minuscule bavarian political party in Weimar Republic.
there will be power struggle between the Right & conservative and Communist
either on of them win this and Weimar Republic become a authoritarian monarchy or Communist nation
or Weimar Republic to play off both and survived ?
USSR
With Stalin out of the equation, either he shot by police during bank robbery or during Revolution and Civil war.
get the spanish flu or he drink bottle of vodka with too much Methanol in it
the USSR will still be authoritarian, but not bloody dictatorship of Stalin.
i think that USSR would even start reforms in 1940s either to more democratic or in economic.
Long term historical evolution
If Weimar Republic become a authoritarian monarchy then there will be revenge war with France and Britain, because the Treaty of Versailles.
A Communist German nation would sires allot Political tension, because they break up the Treaty of Versailles
but this necessarily not lead to a War, but it could let to a war because Poland, the Nation stuck between Communist German nation and USSR, who want closer cooperation and Free transit to it.
a grenade impact in trench were he was, second was a gas attack. both of them could kill him
Göring could die during air combat.
Göring had major role in history of NSDAP and Hitler rise to power,
because as decorated War Hero, Herman Göring had the connection that Hitler needed for his Political plans.
take the two out of the equation history of Germany go another direction
the NDAP is a minuscule bavarian political party in Weimar Republic.
there will be power struggle between the Right & conservative and Communist
either on of them win this and Weimar Republic become a authoritarian monarchy or Communist nation
or Weimar Republic to play off both and survived ?
USSR
With Stalin out of the equation, either he shot by police during bank robbery or during Revolution and Civil war.
get the spanish flu or he drink bottle of vodka with too much Methanol in it
the USSR will still be authoritarian, but not bloody dictatorship of Stalin.
i think that USSR would even start reforms in 1940s either to more democratic or in economic.
Long term historical evolution
If Weimar Republic become a authoritarian monarchy then there will be revenge war with France and Britain, because the Treaty of Versailles.
A Communist German nation would sires allot Political tension, because they break up the Treaty of Versailles
but this necessarily not lead to a War, but it could let to a war because Poland, the Nation stuck between Communist German nation and USSR, who want closer cooperation and Free transit to it.
masteroftheveiledthreat
Banned
I think Mussolini, Mao, or Franco can do little without the others. Goring probably is not not needed. But Trotsky had abilities such as organizing armies, IIRC that were quite toublesome, that might have won the Russian Civil Wars or whatever they were called. You take out Hitler, Stalin, Trotsky, and Lenin in 1916 you strangle Naziism and Communism, the twin scourges of 1919 thru circa 1990, in the cradle, and how far could the human race advance in those years? There might still be a WWII in those years but nothing like the WWII of our time line. A right wing German military dictatorship causes a comparatively minor ruckus.
Holocaust, what holocaust?
Well maybe with Germany making good use of the talents of its Jews, things might get a bit too interesting.
One possible (and as far as I can see, never used) POD for getting rid of both Lenin and Stalin (and a number of other future Bolsheviks, Vorošilov and Rykov included) at one fell swoop would be the grounding of the S/S Oihonna on the Finnish coast in spring 1906. The ship was carrying 90 people en route to the 4th Congress of the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party in Stockholm, ran aground in fog and had to be evacuated. With just a small tweak in the timeline, we could make the ship sink instead, taking down a number of future Communist/Socialist leaders.
Don't under estimate the 1918 flu pandemic
H1N1 influenza virus infected 500 million people across the world in 1918.
killing around 50 to 100 million of then, that 3 to 5 percent of the world's population!
so one of more potential dictators could become victims of flu.
H1N1 influenza virus infected 500 million people across the world in 1918.
killing around 50 to 100 million of then, that 3 to 5 percent of the world's population!
so one of more potential dictators could become victims of flu.