1898 Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of Austria, what next ?

[Michel Van]

Let assume Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph dies in 1898
(Either dies during hunting accident, or get assassinate)

And Franz Ferdinand become Emperor of Austria
He is reformist, with modernisation of AH Army and armament of their Fleet.
and clear out the court in Vienna
political he wanted to concentrate on German speaking part of AH Empire, that become Federalised.
much to anger of Hungarians, he despise (In some ways he is like German Emperor Wilhelm II.)
possible POD for AH civil war ?

This would disrupt the power balance in Europe.
For British is the AH fleet build up, for Russia the modernisation of AH Army.
while French getting nervous about Wilhelm II. and Franz Ferdinand could become best buddy.

but on longterm, how will effect this WW1 ?
There will be WW1 in one or another way do European power politic.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

For one thing, if he becomes Emperor-King before marrying Sophie Choutek (in 1900 OTL), it won't be a morganatic marriage.

 

[Nivek]

For one thing, if he becomes Emperor-King before marrying Sophie Choutek (in 1900 OTL), it won't be a morganatic marriage.

That might be even butterflied away too

 

[Flosgon78]

It would maybe save the empire by giving nationalities the autonomy they desire and oppose maybe to the pretention of germany siding with France

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

That might be even butterflied away too

No; Franz Ferdinand met Sophie in 1894, and by 1898 they had already determined to marry. It was the opposition of Franz Josef that compelled them to wait (and forced a morganatic marriage).

 

[Nivek]

It would maybe save the empire by giving nationalities the autonomy they desire and oppose maybe to the pretention of germany siding with France

Wtf? He was Willy II personal friend, plus his plans to work needed Willy II support.

Plus forget autonomies, FF dream was to create a supra Habsburg identity, when linguistic emancipation could be a carrot, he wanted to unify the political power at Vienna and with him at the helm.

No; Franz Ferdinand met Sophie in 1894, and by 1898 they had already determined to marry. It was the opposition of Franz Josef that compelled them to wait (and forced a morganatic marriage).

Good for them. The side effect is that willy II might need a new duke for his plans

 

[Aphrodite]

The first thing he does is cut a deal with Russia. At the time he was a strong advocate of General Beck's proposal that Austria recognize Russian predominance I the Eastern Balkans, roughly Bulgaria and Romania, in exchange for Russia recognizing Austrian predominance in the Eastern Balkans, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania.

Britain and Italy would scream but suck it up and take it.

Eliminating the Balkan rivalry would greatly strengthen both powers, avoid World War One and probably lead to Russia winning the Manchurian War.

Certainly Austria would fare better with out the war.

 

[farmerted555]

As long as he avoids a trip to Sarajevo in 1914, he should be fine.

 

[Sarthak]

Wtf? He was Willy II personal friend, plus his plans to work needed Willy II support.

While he was personally a friend to willy, he was more than willing to throw him under the bus like in 1908 when FF seriously pushed the idea of detente with Russia and France which was only stopped by the Ministry of War. And no, his ideas of reforming the gov needed money, which Britain and France were more than willing to give, more than even Germany with the 1906 letters than FF sent being outbidded by Britain against Germany almost 7 to 1.

 

[Nivek]

While he was personally a friend to willy, he was more than willing to throw him under the bus like in 1908 when FF seriously pushed the idea of detente with Russia and France which was only stopped by the Ministry of War. And no, his ideas of reforming the gov needed money, which Britain and France were more than willing to give, more than even Germany with the 1906 letters than FF sent being outbidded by Britain against Germany almost 7 to 1.

Didn't France already was using all that money in Russia anyway? If anything the last thing he wants is losing Germany, as he will truly be all along later on anyway

 

[Sarthak]

Didn't France already was using all that money in Russia anyway? If anything the last thing he wants is losing Germany, as he will truly be all along later on anyway

Not at all. France's international investments were high in Russia, but in France itself, they were comparatively low, with only 4% of capital going to Russia. They had more than enough to spare, and Britain even more so. Austria-Hungary could afford to lose Germany if FF got his plans of detente with Russia (which was very nearly accepted by NII as well) Germany would not provoke a 3 front war and Italy alone could not stand up to Austria-Hungary's military strength.

 

[Michel Van]

The first thing he does is cut a deal with Russia. At the time he was a strong advocate of General Beck's proposal that Austria recognize Russian predominance I the Eastern Balkans, roughly Bulgaria and Romania, in exchange for Russia recognizing Austrian predominance in the Eastern Balkans, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania.

I not think that Tsar Nicholas II of Russia would accept this, he wanted all slavic nations under Russian dominance.
but

1908 when FF seriously pushed the idea of detente with Russia and France which was only stopped by the Ministry of War.

under this proposal he could reconsider, special if this would have isolated Germany.
This could delay WW1 considerable for years, even a decade.

 

[Nivek]

Not at all. France's international investments were high in Russia, but in France itself, they were comparatively low, with only 4% of capital going to Russia. They had more than enough to spare, and Britain even more so. Austria-Hungary could afford to lose Germany if FF got his plans of detente with Russia (which was very nearly accepted by NII as well) Germany would not provoke a 3 front war and Italy alone could not stand up to Austria-Hungary's military strength.

I not think that Tsar Nicholas II of Russia would accept this, he wanted all slavic nations under Russian dominance.
but

under this proposal he could reconsider, special if this would have isolated Germany.
This could delay WW1 considerable for years, even a decade.

That is if he survives 1907, Austria would be Alone and Magyar and anyone would open Revolt now, more that Germany wouldn't support them.

 

[Sarthak]

That is if he survives 1907, Austria would be Alone and Magyar and anyone would open Revolt now, more that Germany wouldn't support them.

I really hate this 'Hungarian Revolt 2.0' trope. None of the common people really supported the idea, and the Hungarian Elections without governmental interference always showed a clear majority in favor of the Unionists. And if Germany does not support them in the case of Detente, then France and Britain will. Geopolitics is not a game of simple statements. For all intents and purposes, even Russia and Italy would support the Austrians in such a case, to keep the Balance of Power and the region Stable, and to restart the Hungarian agricultural exports, which were controlled by the Austrian Customs Office.

 

[Nivek]

I really hate this 'Hungarian Revolt 2.0' trope

Because they did and Magyars prove they always march their own way? FF wasn't stupid and people remember...once Russia lost is RJ war they goes full war drum mode as their prestige was next to zero and that will still happen, just people here hate to shit on germany a lot

 

[Sarthak]

Because they did and Magyars prove they always march their own way? FF wasn't stupid and people remember...once Russia lost is RJ war they goes full war drum mode as their prestige was next to zero and that will still happen, just people here hate to shit on germany a lot

The facts on the ground (the restricted suffrage General Elections and the near universal suffrage Local Elections both of which saw overwhelming majorities for Unionists since 1870) disagree. Including the fact that the Hungarians were more loyal to the A-H than Austrians themselves. The Polls conducted by Népszava in 1889, 1902, 1910 and 1913 all show at the minimum 80% unionism. (From Die Krone von Ungarn). If you're going to make assertions, back them up with facts please.

 

[Michel Van]

I really hate this 'Hungarian Revolt 2.0' trope.

in OTL the situation was a clear majority in favor of the Unionists
But here is issue that FF show clearly a despise to ward the Magyars
that could let to uprise in Hungary, but that dependent how they accept the Federalism under FF.

 

[Aphrodite]

I not think that Tsar Nicholas II of Russia would accept this, he wanted all slavic nations under Russian dominance.
but

under this proposal he could reconsider, special if this would have isolated Germany.
This could delay WW1 considerable for years, even a decade

Nicholas certainly would have accepted it. He really had no love of the pan-Slavists. He sided with the Ottomans against the Armenians during the Hamidian massacres in 1894-97, backed the Ottomans against the Greeks in 1897, signed the Balkan detente with Austria in 1897.

Nicholas had no desire to confront Germany and also felt Germany had no ambitions on Russia. Russia, Germany, Austria and the Ottomans are on very good terms with each other until Abdul Hamid is overthrown.

Nicholas, like his father, saw the Russo-Turkish quarrel as weakening both powers. His main concern was the straits. He wanted them open to Russian trade and closed to foreign warships. Abdul Hamid was happy to make such an agreement.

Certainly, Nicholas would have preferred Russian control over the straits and would have cut a deal with anyone who would make it happen. If that means giving Austria Serbia, he'd make the deal in a heartbeat

 

[Michel Van]

Franz Ferdinand had also this plan,
The creation of Südslawien (Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dalmatia) or better say a Yugoslavia without Serbia.

On European alliance politic.

1882 the tripple alliance (Germany, AH and Italy) against
1904 the Triple Entente (France, Russia and Britain) against the tripple alliance
This constellation kept stable until FF got assassinated in 1914

Now with FF as Emperor and his detente politic in 1908 things could see like this:
The quadruple Detente (France, Russia, Britain, Austrian-Hungary)
Germany remain in alliance with Italy, but need stronger Allies
I wonder if Wilhelm II seeks contact with Japanese Empire as Allies against Russia ?

 

[Michel Van]

Looking on the Russian-Japanese War of 1905
Under a quadruple Detente, It would make sense if Germany would take alliance with Imperial Japan.
Also that Japan take the offer in mutual benefit.

First recognition of Japan as great power in Asia by Germany, much to annoyance of other grate powers (including the USA)
Access to German hardware and technology for Japan
And both have ally in case of war with Russia, to push it in two front War with them.