1898: Another view-TL

[martin76]

I´m going to try in this TL a total victory for the Spanish force. To make it credible I will trace a path to war since 1894 or rather 95. Basically I will drive the fall of Sagasta government in late 1894, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pr%C3%A1xedes_Mateo_Sagasta) so Canovas can start work in January 1895, and especially from 1896,( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Cánovas_del_Castillo), however, trough this TL, I will try to comply with the following rules:

a.- Nobody will enter the war with more forces which they had in reality. It is possible that more naval units can be added, like a second Colon cruiser, but won´t be in time to enter the war. But, of course, the Colon won´t reject their main guns (like in the Reality happened), opting for using with light load ammunition in the same way as It was done by the Army with Armstrong guns.

b.- I will extract the result of the actions from two Wargames:

Remember the maine for naval actions. http://www.avalanchepress.com/gameRememberMaine.php

A splendid little war for land actions:
http://www.victorypointgames.com/cuba-the-splendid-little-war.html


c.- There will be some concessions as the Peral submarine, but in case of success, they will be subtracted from the total number of the Marina Real successes.

Thanks to a friend for giving me the information.

 

[naraht]

Better 19th century for Spain...

I appreciated the comment that I read somewhere. About the only way that the 19th Century could be worse for Spain involve actual changes to the borders of the country (i.e. independent Catalonia)

 

[martin76]

I appreciated the comment that I read somewhere. About the only way that the 19th Century could be worse for Spain involve actual changes to the borders of the country (i.e. independent Catalonia)

Yes, it was a bad century. Early XIX century, The Spanish Empire was the biggest Seaborne Empire in that time... When It ended the XIX century, Spain was a secondary power.

 

[martin76]

Ferrol, August 11, 1894


That morning the training-Sloop “Nautilus” (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautilus_(1886)) docked at the docks after a voyage of circumnavigation of the globe what had lasted 1 year, 7 months and 11 days, during which the future officers of the Armada Real had learned the ancient art of sail navigation.Just before landing, his commander, Captain Fernando Villaamil (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Villaamil) picked up the sheaf of papers of what would soon become his book. “Journey of Circumnavigation of the Sloop Nautilus” (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viaje_de_circunnavegación_de_la_corbeta_Nautilus).




Days later, in Madrid, he met his friend, the composer and bullfighting reviewer Antonio Pena y Goni, (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Peña_y_Goñhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Peña_y_Goñi) with the intention that this friend prologue his work. Unfortunately, Pena y Goni was ill at the time and therefore may not prologue the work of his dear captain.





[FONT=&quot]Two days later, the captain Villaamil was looking for whom prefaces his book. It was then when in a lucky strike, he met the laureate Lt. General Don Valeriano Weyler y Nicolau http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeriano_Weyler,_1st_Duke_of_Rubí Captain General of Catalonia who had come to the capital by train to give his report to the Minister, Don Joaquin Lopez Dominguez http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Defence_(Spain). [/FONT]



Weyler was a soldier with a tough and frugal reputation. He was one of the best and most famous Spanish generals. The meeting was cordial. They admired each other. The former, one of the best naval officers, inventor of the Destroyer that was being widely copied in the most important navies in the world and instigator of the school trip. The latter, maybe the best general in the Army, with a hight reputation earned in many campaigns and in many peaceful destinations, in which he always distinguished as a reformist and hard and disciplined officer. That same day, Weyler accepted prologue the book of Villaamil, taking the manuscript.



At that moment, nobody noticed, but perhaps this meeting was going to change the history of the coming years and maybe the next XX century.

 

[martin76]

BARCELONA, September, 28, 1894.

The reading of the manuscript of Villaamil really drew the General Valeriano Weyler attention. As the book revealed, US was building in a rush a first class fleet. This fact together with the apparent increase of jingoism (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jingoism) in the high levels of the US policy caused him great concern, so he tried to gather whatever data he could about the growing industrial might of the US. However in those moments, the concern wasn´t there, but in the coming weeks the uneasiness caused by the unpleasantness news about the growing naval power of the US was increasing.



The conservative deputy and former minister Don Juan Navarro Reverter y Gomis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Navarro-Reverter_y_Gomis) took his trip to Barcelona to visit his old friend General Weyler. They met in Weyler´s home where they talked for hours about the city, the struggle against anarchism, in which the information system implemented by Weyler began to bear fruit, and about the international situation. It was in that moment when Navarro spoke of the great hardships suffered by the Cuban economy after US have approved the named Wilson – Gorman tariff Act (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilson–Gorman_Tariff_Act) in the past August.





To Weyler that attack the Cuban economy increased his fears. A country with a strong jingoistic sector, a country committed to the achievement of a powerful navy, was pressing and clearly damaging an island that had attempted to acquire twice in the last half century. Definitely dark clouds approaching in the future of Spain unless, in the coming years, the government achieve reverse the situation.

 

[martin76]

BARCELONA, September, 30, 1894.

That Sunday, General Weyler was in the Opera, being accompanied by Navarro. Weyler was merely there to show the anarchist terrorists that the situation was under control and he had no fear.

[FONT=&quot]It was there where Weyler met the senator-elected from Lerida, admiral and former minister, Don Manuel de la Pezuela y Lobo-Cabrilla. (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manuel_de_la_Pezuela_y_Lobo-Cabrilla). The general took the chance to state his fears, the political leadership[/FONT][FONT=&quot] of the US government, and especially the american public opinion, manipulated from the yellowed newspapers, was extremely worrying.[/FONT]
If it is not made efforts to remedy, in a few years, the American and Spanish interests would collide in Cuba. So, the question was clear and concise. If the US tried and conquering Cuba, Would Spain any chance to defend the Island?




The following conversation is extractedd from the book "Memoirs" of Don Juan Navarro Reverter, witnessed , that night at the Opera:


Admiral Pezuela: Right now, we have some balance but in two or three years, they will clearly overtaken us. (...) Unfortunately our navy has many problems (...) but a few years ago, we chose the concepts of the French Jeune École (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeune_%C3%89cole) but unfortunately many people still support the need for battleships to face the enemy in decisive battles. So, now we have a Navy swim between two streams. We have one battleship and six armored cruisers launched or building and very short number of torpedo boats, most of then outdate and of poor military value. Still worse, the peace Budgets have not helped us.


A navy consisted by doubtful combat value units as it was reflected last year in a memorandum written by the liberal Deputy Maura (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonio_Maura).
A few large units suitabled to do cruiser warfare following the concept of the Jeune Ecole but unfortunately they aren´t supported by the light torpedos boats that the said doctrine required to keep our own coast safe from the enemy battleship.
[FONT=&quot]To make matters worse, the most advanced technologically design in the World, the submarine designed by Peral [/FONT][FONT=&quot]([/FONT][FONT=&quot]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Peral) was rejected because of the pressures of the “Czar of the Arms industry”, Basil Zaharof. [/FONT](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basil_Zaharoff).




[FONT=&quot]Navarro: Then we would need to change it. But I don´t know when the conservatives will arrived the govermment, as later in next spring, although if we don´t find that US intentions are hostile, It would be very hard to take drastic measures. (...)[/FONT]






Weyler: So, the first we must do It´s to find out those intentions. We will need to send some men to collect information in the US..(...)




The talking continued about the US industrial potential, abouth their expansionist ambitions etc etc.

 

[Namayan]

The peral subs would have made the battleships and dreadnoughts not as strong when fighting spain.

With your 1894 pod,Another factor would be making philippines loyal. Philippines would have provided significant manpower at the other Side of the world. Giving the filipino illustrados what they wanted would do this. Rizal was still alive to make philippine autonomy possible and any future rebellions almost insignificant or without Any support.

A good otl pattern for this is making philippines a dominion. Or philippine commonwealth in otl 1930s. This would solve the rebellion and the loss to usa in Asia.

 

[martin76]

The peral subs would have made the battleships and dreadnoughts not as strong when fighting spain.

With your 1894 pod,Another factor would be making philippines loyal. Philippines would have provided significant manpower at the other Side of the world. Giving the filipino illustrados what they wanted would do this. Rizal was still alive to make philippine autonomy possible and any future rebellions almost insignificant or without Any support.

A good otl pattern for this is making philippines a dominion. Or philippine commonwealth in otl 1930s. This would solve the rebellion and the loss to usa in Asia.

Yes, the Peral sub would have made difficult the task of the US Navy battleships.

In this What if, I want to win the war and it is very difficult... I am using what existed in 1898 but in a different way...if I make a mistake I wish you'd say.

About Philippines... It is very difficult what to do... Don Jose Rizal wanted the Philippines became in Spanish metropolitan land as the Canary... He said "Philippines with Spain, not under Spain". But on the other side are the religious orders ...

 

[martin76]

[FONT=&quot]MADRID[/FONT][FONT=&quot], October, 4, 1894[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

Mr. Navarro Reverter, concerned about the talking with Valeriano Weyler and Admiral Pezuela days ago requested the attention of the leader of his party, Mr. Canovas del Castillo. For several days he hold several meetings with him, in which he exposed the aforementioned soldiers fears regarding the hostile intentions of the US in the coming years. As he hoped he didn´t achieve any commitment of Mr Canovas del Castillo, because the latter considered unlikely for a conflict with that country. However, Navarro achieved permission to investigate in depth about the US intentions and that, eventually, invest in the reform of the navy and the army once they were removed the calle peace budgets. The only concession that he really achieved it was to resume the submersible project, as he had become a staunch defender of its production after the conversation with Admiral Pezuela.
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The task was[/FONT][FONT=&quot] daunting. First it needed to know what were the accurate needs of the army and navy in order not to waste efforts. Secondly it was necessary to have a plan of action, if necessary, to employ the own forces in the best of circumstances. Last but not least, it was necessary to have an adequate system of information to understand the intentions and capabilities of the potential enemy. Certainly too much work for one person, so he tried to attract discreetly several different graduation servicemen.
[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Although[/FONT][FONT=&quot] the Conservative Party was still in opposition , the duality of Spanish policy allowed certain freedoms to the major parties. Using these capacities, the minister Navarro met with the Reserve General, spy and politician, José Gómez Arteche, (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/José_Gómez_de_Arteche) and Deputy and army colonel Vicente López Puigcerver, (http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vicente_López_Puigcerver) both near to the Conservative Party. They would be responsible for finding out the real intentions of the US towards Cuba and, ultimately, the creation of the Military Intelligence Service[/FONT].