1588 and its aftermath: Henri I de Bourbon-Condé survives, Henri IV of France dies in battle

[Brita]

So I've been wondering what the French succession would be like if Henri I de Bourbon-Condé didn't die in March 1588 and Henri IV, King of France, was killed in battle in 1589 leaving his uncle Charles, Archbishop of Rouen, as his heir. Charles, however, dies soon after as OTL.

So here are a few pretenders:
1 Henri I de Bourbon, Prince of Condé, a Protestant and fierce defender of his faith, certainly not the kind to decide that "Paris is well worth a mass". I can't see him converting, which means the Parliament would certainly choose the next heir.

2 François de Bourbon, Prince of Conti, Henri's brother. He's a Catholic but faithful to his Protestant brother, whom he supported OTL. Would he betray his elder brother there? I'm not sure, as OTL he supported Henry IV and never claim the throne, even though he was one of the candidates considered to succeed.

3 Charles II de Bourbon, Cardinal of Bourbon, their brother. He claimed the throne against Henry IV OTL so I can see him doing so ITTL too, especially as he didn't receive ordination. However, this time he'd be challenging his brother, not his cousin. Not to mention that he suffered from dropsy and would probably die as OTL.

4 Isabella Clara Eugenia of Spain, the late King Henri III's niece and the King of Spain's daughter. A woman, but a Catholic. Her father could offer her as a bride for François in the hope that it will convince him to change sides, or to Charles if he leaves the Church.


So how do you think things would evolve in this context?

 

[SunZi]

The direct consequence would be the secession of the royalist camp between the Catholics and the Protestants. Condé as the eldest of the royal house would try to maintain the loyalty of his younger brothers Conti and Soissons (for the second, would he even be inclined to accept his union with Queen Catherine (II) of Navarre, sister of Henri IV, in order to be able to maintain such an important ally as the Bearnese crown), but indeed with the Cardinal, the break would be certain but perhaps not directly after the ascension of Condé to the throne.

OTL, Henry IV seemed to be attached to his Protestant faith and refused to recant but more as a sign of independence and authority in the face of the great aristocrats who demanded it and he gave in only because of unfavorable circumstances - Henry of Navarre was convinced that he could become Protestant king of a Catholic France thanks to Providence, in which he believed a lot and which is close to the dogma of Calvinist predestination in which he was immersed but his political sense prevailed over the religious. Thus, Henri de Condé has faith out of a similar desire to remain independent of the great royalist aristocracy but sincerely a believer, except that unlike Henri IV, Condé is a pitiful war captain (like his son Henri II, and unlike his father Louis I and his grandson Louis II, amusing recurrence) and it is surely this incompetence which led him to the grave, when he was injured at Coutras.

Although assured of obtaining good lieutenants in the royalist army, both Catholic and Protestant, his stubbornness in remaining Protestant will bring him many supports who will go to the Cardinal's side. Thus, when Henry IV decided to abjure in 1593 it was the events of 1592 which convinced him when he almost got killed at Aumale at the beginning of February, that his army did not succeed in taking Rouen therefore alienating the support of the English and that Marshal de Biron threatens to leave the siege, to join the Cardinal who remained in Tours. ITTL, the defeats of Condé coupled with his denominational loyalty will swell the Cardinal's party, add to that the distrust of the Duke of Mayenne, head of the League royalty, against the Spanish as well as his rivalry with his nephew Guise, official head of the League , so that both unite and the political sense of "Charles XI" prevails over the crude brutality of "Lieutenant General of the State and Crown of France", but must he not die like OTL. Alongside, François of Conti is a character loyal to his brother Condé because he is above all totally insignificant, deaf, mute and lame as if manipulable while Soissons would be in his Navarrese idyll although he is often described as a good captain, strong as a bull but inconstant and thus side with Charles XI (with the aim perhaps of becoming king).

 

[Brita]

Interesting. I don't think "Charles XI" would live long though, given his health problems.
I also wonder: would Condé let Soissons marry Catherine of Navarre? With the King of Spain claiming France for his daughter, he might fear Soissons would do the same in Catherine's name.

 

[SunZi]

I also wonder: would Condé let Soissons marry Catherine of Navarre? With the King of Spain claiming France for his daughter, he might fear Soissons would do the same in Catherine's name.

There will be no valid reason for Catherine to claim the throne or Soissons in her name. The suitor recognized by all would be by default Condé, at least by the Protestants and even the moderates of the said party would not take Catherine as a candidate in view of her sex and her religious inflexibility, similar in every way to Condé. Likewise, Soissons would not have the social or partisan base for, certainly he was Protestant during his childhood but he was affiliated with the League before the death of the Duke of Anjou in 1584, therefore suspect for Protestants as well as for Catholics who do not loath to have a Protestant queen. Soissons is with the election of "Charles XI", the heir apparent or at least the most likely candidate for the throne. Furthermore, in a situation of elective monarchy his role will be increased due to his military skills that the Cardinal does not have as well as his dynastic and political position as King of Navarre.

 

[Brita]

There will be no valid reason for Catherine to claim the throne or Soissons in her name. The suitor recognized by all would be by default Condé, at least by the Protestants and even the moderates of the said party would not take Catherine as a candidate in view of her sex and her religious inflexibility, similar in every way to Condé. Likewise, Soissons would not have the social or partisan base for, certainly he was Protestant during his childhood but he was affiliated with the League before the death of the Duke of Anjou in 1584, therefore suspect for Protestants as well as for Catholics who do not loath to have a Protestant queen. Soissons is with the election of "Charles XI", the heir apparent or at least the most likely candidate for the throne. Furthermore, in a situation of elective monarchy his role will be increased due to his military skills that the Cardinal does not have as well as his dynastic and political position as King of Navarre.

True, I forgot Catherine refused to convert OTL. Which makes me think: is it plausible that Condé agrees to the marriage hoping that Soissons will change sides again?
Also, even if I can't see "Charles XI" living much longer, I guess he would leave the Church and marry. Any idea who his wife would be? Would he choose Isabella to get Spanish support, or someone else?

 

[SunZi]

is it plausible that Condé agrees to the marriage hoping that Soissons will change sides again?

The said change of camp will take place gradually, Charles de Soissons is then a tertiary actor in the certain struggle between Condé and Vendôme (the name given to the Cardinal) because although king of Navarre, he is not necessarily accepted by the Bearnese nobility and can stay away from these said territories. If the king's agreement is required for Soissons to marry, he can very well choose the king who will accept thus if Condé refuses then he turns to Vendôme or vice versa, while Catherine, as sovereign, has not need someone's permission.

Any idea who his wife would be? Would he chose Isabella to get Spanish support, or someone else?

If I am not mistaken, Philippe had refused such a compromise, at least if my memory serves me correctly he had refused the proposal of marriage between a member of the house of Guise and the Infanta. Personally, I imagine as a candidate for “Charles XI” a person that everyone forgets, either out of contempt for the individual or through her absence during the conquest of the king by Henry IV, namely Margaret of Valois.

We often ignore that she was close, or even supported the League, partly in opposition to her husband Henri de Navarre but above all, as the last living Valois and daughter of Henri II, she was then the most legitimate to obtain the throne because Philip II, after the death of Henry III, designated it to the League as depositary of the French crown but due to the religion of Henry IV, these rights were then void. It is obviously a rhetoric to open the way for the Infanta, but with Henry of Navarre dead and Condé a Protestant, Margaret regains all her dynastic importance and therefore her ambition. In a certain sense, she is the French counterpart of Anna Jagiellon still alive at this time, being able to become the tool of the French nobility to impose on Charles XI an alter-rex or on the contrary a powerful ally to the candidate, like both. Obviously, Charles XI would see the disadvantages of such a union; unpopularity of the Queen, inclination towards adultery and affairs, old age and obvious sterility but he is 9 years younger, so wait for her to die, and the situation is perilous enough to accept this sacrifice.

 

[Brita]

The said change of camp will take place gradually, Charles de Soissons is then a tertiary actor in the certain struggle between Condé and Vendôme (the name given to the Cardinal) because although king of Navarre, he is not necessarily accepted by the Bearnese nobility and can stay away from these said territories. If the king's agreement is required for Soissons to marry, he can very well choose the king who will accept thus if Condé refuses then he turns to Vendôme or vice versa, while Catherine, as sovereign, has not need someone's permission.


If I am not mistaken, Philippe had refused such a compromise, at least if my memory serves me correctly he had refused the proposal of marriage between a member of the house of Guise and the Infanta. Personally, I imagine as a candidate for “Charles XI” a person that everyone forgets, either out of contempt for the individual or through her absence during the conquest of the king by Henry IV, namely Margaret of Valois.

We often ignore that she was close, or even supported the League, partly in opposition to her husband Henri de Navarre but above all, as the last living Valois and daughter of Henri II, she was then the most legitimate to obtain the throne because Philip II, after the death of Henry III, designated it to the League as depositary of the French crown but due to the religion of Henry IV, these rights were then void. It is obviously a rhetoric to open the way for the Infanta, but with Henry of Navarre dead and Condé a Protestant, Margaret regains all her dynastic importance and therefore her ambition. In a certain sense, she is the French counterpart of Anna Jagiellon still alive at this time, being able to become the tool of the French nobility to impose on Charles XI an alter-rex or on the contrary a powerful ally to the candidate, like both. Obviously, Charles XI would see the disadvantages of such a union; unpopularity of the Queen, inclination towards adultery and affairs, old age and obvious sterility but he is 9 years younger, so wait for her to die, and the situation is perilous enough to accept this sacrifice.

You're right, I'd forgotten Margaret.

So here's a family tree for the Bourbon family:
Louis I de Bourbon, Prince of Condé (1530-1569) m. a) Eléonore de Roy (1535-1564) b) Françoise d'Orléans-Longueville (1549-1601)

1a) Henri I de Bourbon, Prince of Condé, aka Henry V of France (1552-1605) m. a) 1572 Marie de Clèves (1553-1574) b) 1586 Charlotte-Catherine de La Trémoille (1565-1629)​

1a) Catherine de Bourbon-Condé (1574-1595)​

2b) Eléonore de Bourbon-Condé (1587-1619)​

3b) Henri de Bourbon-Condé, Dauphin of France (1588-1646)​

4b) Charlotte de Bourbon-Condé (1590-1631)​

5b) Françoise de Bourbon-Condé (1593-1642)​

2a) Marguerite de Bourbon (1556)​

3a) Charles de Bourbon (1557)​

4a) François de Bourbon, Prince of Conti (1556-1614) m. 1581 Jeanne de Coësmes (1560-1601)​

no issue​

5a) Charles II de Bourbon, Cardinal of Vendôme, aka Charles XI of France (1562-1594) m. 1590 Margaret of Valois (1553-1615)​

no issue​

6a) Louis de Bourbon (1562-1563)​

7a) Madeleine de Bourbon (1563)​

8a) Catherine de Bourbon (1564)​

9b) Charles de Bourbon, Count of Soissons, King of Navarre jure uxoris (1566-1612) m. 1590 Catherine II, Queen of Navarre (1559-1604)​

1a) Charles de Bourbon, Prince of Viana (1591-1652)​

2a) Catherine de Bourbon (1593-1643)​

3a) Antoine de Bourbon (1596-1661)​

10b) Louis de Bourbon (1567-1569)​

11b) Benjamin de Bourbon (1569-1573)​

So things would reach an impasse with Charles XI's marriage being childless and Henry V's refusal to convert. After Charles's death The Catholics would either turn to Conti, who has no sons, or Soissons, married to a fiercely Protestant queen (btw, would it be plausible for Soissons to convert when he marries Catherine?)

 

[SunZi]

The conversion of Soissons to Protestantism seems unlikely to me. He is certainly inconstant but not to the point of abjuring a faith to which he is attached, especially since it did not pose a problem to Catherine, when they flirted openly in front of Henry IV.