1554: D. Sebastião Is Stillborn. Now What?

Alcacer Quibir would still happen anyways, I dont think any Portuguese King would let the Ottomans vassalize Morocco.
Even if it does, theres no reason to suspect that D. Carlos would be present at the battle, or even if he was and was killed, that he would leave no child(ren).

That being said, what would the chances be of either D. Juan of Austria or Farnese (both of whom were basically raised with D. Carlos OTL) following him to Portugal TTL?
 
Alcacer Quibir would still happen anyways, I dont think any Portuguese King would let the Ottomans vassalize Morocco.
Carlos would NOT be there and in any case he would be 33 years old and married for more than 15 years to Elisabeth of France meaning who he would most likely have heirs
Even if it does, theres no reason to suspect that D. Carlos would be present at the battle, or even if he was and was killed, that he would leave no child(ren).

That being said, what would the chances be of either D. Juan of Austria or Farnese (both of whom were basically raised with D. Carlos OTL) following him to Portugal TTL?
Pretty great, specially if Carlos‘ health is not the best, he would want his cousins and friends as commanders (and both Juan and Alessandro had talent in military matters… I can see both of them involved in the Portuguese wars in Africa, Juan as head of the navy and Alessandro as head of the army).
 
Pretty great, specially if Carlos‘ health is not the best, he would want his cousins and friends as commanders (and both Juan and Alessandro had talent in military matters… I can see both of them involved in the Portuguese wars in Africa, Juan as head of the navy and Alessandro as head of the army).
I'm guessing Juan and his son avoid their OTL deaths then? The latter rumoured to be at the hands of Felipe's poisoners.
 
I'm guessing Juan and his son avoid their OTL deaths then? The latter rumoured to be at the hands of Felipe's poisoners.
Yes. Juan would still be involved in Lepanto but neither he or Alessandro would have the time for adventures in the Netherlands as they would be too busy fighting Ottomans, specially if Carlos take a liking to that
 
Even if the battle happens again, having competent military leaders instead a bunch of idiots directing it as in OTL can result in a different outcome. Even more if the campaign is supported by Castilian armies. The utter disaster that was the original battle is very improbable to happen here.
 
What it says on the tin. In January 1554, still grieving the loss of her husband, D. Juana, Dowager Princess of Portugal is delivered of a dead infant. To simplify the matter, let's assume Juana dies in childbirth as well.

AFAIK, the next "heir" to Portugal is D. Carlos, D. Felipe II's problematic son. Assuming that he's disqualified because his mother married a foreigner (was that a rule yet?), then that pulls up D. Luiz. Who dies the next November. Not sure if that's enough time for him to get married (to who?) and knock out a kid (assuming he still can). Followed by the OTL Cardinal King.

There is one bright spot here: King Joao III might decide to arrange the Guimaraes' children's marriages. Not sure why he didn't OTL, since the eldest, Maria (b.1538) would've already been nearly eighteen when he died.

Thoughts?

@RedAquilla @Karolus Rex @Viriato @Lusitania @any other Lusophone specialists

The married a foreigner is most likely an invention and wasn't considered, there were no laws of successions regulating how the crown should be passed in Portugal, which is how after Cardinal-King Henry was alive Filipe of Spain and Catarina of Portugal spent their time arguing in court over who had the best claim to being the heir. The only laws regulating to a degree would be the Mental Laws of King Duarte, but even those are debatable.

If all those die then there's still the Cardinal who counts for this as far as the Portuguese succession cares, but past him there's the Duke of Guimarães, Duarte of Portugal, who is very much alive and a grandson of Manuel, one of the most influential lords in Portugal and the Constanble of the Kingdom, its very cut and dry who would be sworn in as heir IMHO, its Duarte.
 
Alcacer Quibir would still happen anyways, I dont think any Portuguese King would let the Ottomans vassalize Morocco.

Alcacer Quibir was a project solely of Sebastião, everyone in the kingdom was against it, everyone told him that it was lunacy and already by João III's reign Portuguese policy in Morocco was to abandon most of the possessions there and just hold to a few enclaves that for political reasons. Portuguese involvement in Morocco to that scale at that stage is by no means a certainty.
 
The married a foreigner is most likely an invention and wasn't considered, there were no laws of successions regulating how the crown should be passed in Portugal, which is how after Cardinal-King Henry was alive Filipe of Spain and Catarina of Portugal spent their time arguing in court over who had the best claim to being the heir. The only laws regulating to a degree would be the Mental Laws of King Duarte, but even those are debatable.

If all those die then there's still the Cardinal who counts for this as far as the Portuguese succession cares, but past him there's the Duke of Guimarães, Duarte of Portugal, who is very much alive and a grandson of Manuel, one of the most influential lords in Portugal and the Constanble of the Kingdom, its very cut and dry who would be sworn in as heir IMHO, its Duarte.
So King Duarte II and not King Carlos I then?

Would this affect the marriages of Duarte's sisters any?
 
So King Duarte II and not King Carlos I then?

Would this affect the marriages of Duarte's sisters any?

By what few regulations there were on the succession on royal property, and even those it's iffy if they would even apply, Duarte is the most likely candidate to be acknowledged as King in the Cortes. He's a rich and influential Duke, from his father's side he's the grandson of Manuel I and from his mother's side he's related to the Dukes of Bragança. In the immediate aftermath the heir would be the Duke of Beja, Luis, but he dies in 1555 anyway, after that the only person who could contest him on having a better claim to present would be Cardinal Henry. IMHO there's no reason why Carlos would even be considered at this stage, there are still legitimate male descendants of Manuel.

I have absolutely no clue, but doubt would change much the OTL marriages were the usual for Portuguese royalty.
 
So King Duarte II and not King Carlos I then?

Would this affect the marriages of Duarte's sisters any?
By what few regulations there were on the succession on royal property, and even those it's iffy if they would even apply, Duarte is the most likely candidate to be acknowledged as King in the Cortes. He's a rich and influential Duke, from his father's side he's the grandson of Manuel I and from his mother's side he's related to the Dukes of Bragança. In the immediate aftermath the heir would be the Duke of Beja, Luis, but he dies in 1555 anyway, after that the only person who could contest him on having a better claim to present would be Cardinal Henry. IMHO there's no reason why Carlos would even be considered at this stage, there are still legitimate male descendants of Manuel.

I have absolutely no clue, but doubt would change much the OTL marriages were the usual for Portuguese royalty.
NO. You are forgetting @Karolus Rex who Portugal’s succession was simply a male preference one, without ANY kind of Salic preferences meaning who don Carlos would became King AFTER his grandfather as Beja, the Cardinal and Guimaraes are simply descendants of Manuel I while don Carlos here is the ONLY surviving descendant of John III meaning who he is ahead of everyone who descend only from Manuel. Nobody would put Duarte over Carlos in the same way in which nobody would have put OTL Manuel I (or his father) ahead of Joana (John II’s sister) or Luiz of Beja ahead of Maria Manuela… and keep in mind who both Joana and Maria Manuela had the title of Princess of Portugal before the birth of their younger brothers who replaced them as heir
 
John III would live for three more years, who would he have designated as successor, Carlos or Duarte?
 
NO. You are forgetting @Karolus Rex who Portugal’s succession was simply a male preference one, without ANY kind of Salic preferences meaning who don Carlos would became King AFTER his grandfather as Beja, the Cardinal and Guimaraes are simply descendants of Manuel I while don Carlos here is the ONLY surviving descendant of John III meaning who he is ahead of everyone who descend only from Manuel. Nobody would put Duarte over Carlos in the same way in which nobody would have put OTL Manuel I (or his father) ahead of Joana (John II’s sister) or Luiz of Beja ahead of Maria Manuela… and keep in mind who both Joana and Maria Manuela had the title of Princess of Portugal before the birth of their younger brothers who replaced them as heir

I never referenced any kind of salic law or anything of the like. I very much even pointed out that Portugal did not have any laws regulating succession, with only the Mental Law of King Duarte regulating to a degree inheritance of Royal Estates. The main reason why Duarte would be the main contender would be he is a highly popular and influential royal duke, he's the Constable of the Realm, he's in the Royal Council and was at the time of Sebastão ascension as King considered the young boy's heir, at no point was Carlos of Spain considered by the Portuguese Royal Council or the Cortes.

On the rest of that Manuel OTL was considered ahead of Joana, João II already considered him in 1484 his heir if Afonso died. And Luis de Beja was always assumed to be João III's heir if something happened to João's sons. It wasn't a matter of laws blocking women from the kingship, historical precedent and tradition in the Portuguese succession going back to King Fernando had established that if there were no more male legitimate descendants available then the crown would go to King's daughters. Duchess Catarina of Bragança's all legal argument was based on that as the heir of Duarte of Guimarães and as such the closest living legitimate relative of Manuel via the male line she was the rightful heir, the full argument back in 1578-80 was over who had the closest legitimate link via the male line to Manuel, I don't see why that would change in this.
 
I never referenced any kind of salic law or anything of the like. I very much even pointed out that Portugal did not have any laws regulating succession, with only the Mental Law of King Duarte regulating to a degree inheritance of Royal Estates. The main reason why Duarte would be the main contender would be he is a highly popular and influential royal duke, he's the Constable of the Realm, he's in the Royal Council and was at the time of Sebastão ascension as King considered the young boy's heir, at no point was Carlos of Spain considered by the Portuguese Royal Council or the Cortes.
That do not mean who Carlos would NOT become King if Sebastian died before him. Keep in mind who in OTL Philip was able to get the Kingship after Cardinal Henry’s death and so I doubt who he would not do his best for claiming Portugal for his son
On the rest of that Manuel OTL was considered ahead of Joana, João II already considered him in 1484 his heir if Afonso died. And Luis de Beja was always assumed to be João III's heir if something happened to João's sons. It wasn't a matter of laws blocking women from the kingship, historical precedent and tradition in the Portuguese succession going back to King Fernando had established that if there were no more male legitimate descendants available then the crown would go to King's daughters. Duchess Catarina of Bragança's all legal argument was based on that as the heir of Duarte of Guimarães and as such the closest living legitimate relative of Manuel via the male line she was the rightful heir, the full argument back in 1578-80 was over who had the closest legitimate link via the male line to Manuel, I don't see why that would change in this.
Joana was a nun at that point and in any case far too old for being able to have children and likely to die before her brother. Catarina’s claim would be inferior to that of Carlos and also her brother, descendent of Manuel but not of John III would have an inferior claim to Carlos, who was a descendant of both John III and Manuel
 
That do not mean who Carlos would NOT become King if Sebastian died before him. Keep in mind who in OTL Philip was able to get the Kingship after Cardinal Henry’s death and so I doubt who he would not do his best for claiming Portugal for his son

Joana was a nun at that point and in any case far too old for being able to have children and likely to die before her brother. Catarina’s claim would be inferior to that of Carlos and also her brother, descendent of Manuel but not of John III would have an inferior claim to Carlos, who was a descendant of both John III and Manuel

Filipe was able to get the Kingship after paying off Duchess, both monetarily and granting her and her husband giant concessions that basically turned the domain of the Dukes of Bragança a fully autonomous domain inside the kingdom, and granting considerable concessions to the Portuguese Cortes and even then it still took him marching with an army into Lisbon. And this was after 2 years of legal disputes in which no agreement was reached.

I mean, João became King in his full reign in 1481 so whom he considers the heir in 1484 is important in this context. Also this next one is a direct quote from Rui Ramos História de Portugal, Part II, Chapter 3 - D. Sebastião e Álcacer Quibir

Probably the most striking event of this brief reign, which in many ways resembles a politically tumultuous interregnum, was the legal dispute between the various candidates for the crown of Portugal, triggered and raised by the cardinal-king himself. In fact, although Philip II did not formally respond to the request because he considered his rights to be indisputable and not subject to scrutiny by any court, the fact is that, for some time, the various candidates were able to make arguments in their favour, mobilising jurists and the peninsular and French universities to do so. In the absence of clear rules of succession, an unusual legal and political debate took place. Apart from the hypothetical and unfounded candidacy of Catarina de Medicis, there were five candidates. All of them were descended from King Manuel I, whose first-born line of succession had been extinguished with the death of King Sebastião: Filipe II, as the son of the monarch's first-born daughter, Isabel; Manuel Felisberto, Duke of Savoy, as the son of the former's immediate sister, Beatriz; Rainuncio, Duke of Parma, as the son of the eldest daughter with descendants of Prince Duarte, Duke of Guimarães and the only surviving male son with descendants of King Manuel; Catherine, Duchess of Bragança by marriage, the younger sister of the former's mother; and, finally, António, Prior of Crato, bastard son of Prince Luís, also a son of King Manuel. For political and proximity reasons, only the candidacies of Filipe II and D. Catarina would be seriously supported, while the candidacy of the prior of Crato still had important support, although with little basis in law, precisely the area in which the cardinal-king endeavoured to see the issue settled.

It's impossible to summarise in a few lines all the allegations mobilised by the two candidacies, which did indeed make systematic use of legal arguments. In Catherine's favour was the fact that, although she was a woman, she would accede to the throne by the right of her father, who, in the previous generation, would unquestionably have precedence over all women. This was called the right of representation, in other words, Catherine would represent her father's right. In Philip II's favour was the fact that, although he had a female line, he was a man and the closest male descendant to the aforementioned monarch. The arguments rarely revolved around the exclusion of women (generally without expression in the peninsular law of Portugal or Castile), but rather about whether the law of the people or Roman law applied, about whether in kingdoms one succeeded as an heir, about the analogies between succession in the kingdom and Mental Law, etc. In fact, there was a legal vacuum, so it was debatable who was entitled to succession in the kingdom, a question that would be clarified and rectified by later law. But it should be noted that, in the light of some aspects of the law that were enshrined later, the Duke of Savoy's candidacy had far more arguments than the support he was given at the time.

The heirs of Manuel's male line of descendants were always favored over the heirs of the female line.
 
The heirs of Manuel's male line of descendants were always favored over the heirs of the female line.
That is true but Carlos will always be favoured over all of them because he is a grandson of João III, all the others are grandsons of Manuel I. His claim is better.

I think a Morrocan Expedition is possible even without Sebastião as it was provoked by the Ottomans getting closer to the Atlantic and a Moroccan succession dispute but the outcome could be very different. Sebastião's expedition had many mistakes that could have been easily averted though the outcome could still be poor.
 
NO. You are forgetting @Karolus Rex who Portugal’s succession was simply a male preference one, without ANY kind of Salic preferences meaning who don Carlos would became King AFTER his grandfather as Beja, the Cardinal and Guimaraes are simply descendants of Manuel I while don Carlos here is the ONLY surviving descendant of John III meaning who he is ahead of everyone who descend only from Manuel. Nobody would put Duarte over Carlos in the same way in which nobody would have put OTL Manuel I (or his father) ahead of Joana (John II’s sister) or Luiz of Beja ahead of Maria Manuela… and keep in mind who both Joana and Maria Manuela had the title of Princess of Portugal before the birth of their younger brothers who replaced them as heir
Portugal had a long history of the Cortes being the defining decider of succession in complex cases like this.

The argument for D. Duarte being preferred over D. Carlos is quite solid. Saying succession law says otherwise is treating history like a Paradox game where succession happens automatically via computer code.
 
That is true but Carlos will always be favoured over all of them because he is a grandson of João III, all the others are grandsons of Manuel I. His claim is better.

I think a Morrocan Expedition is possible even without Sebastião as it was provoked by the Ottomans getting closer to the Atlantic and a Moroccan succession dispute but the outcome could be very different. Sebastião's expedition had many mistakes that could have been easily averted though the outcome could still be poor.

That would be a matter for the Cortes that would most likely swear in Duarte, thanks to his claim and his long list of connections, but if you want to debate which claim is better, there's no better as there's no law or ordinance regulating this, the only ordinance comes from the Mental Law that simply regulates donations of royal estates and that was done under King Duarte I and integrated into the Ordinances of King Manuel:

determined and commanded that all the lands, goods and inheritances of the crown of his kingdoms, which were given and donated by him or by the kings to any persons [...] should always remain entirely, on the death of the possessor of such goods and lands, to his legitimate eldest male son who remained of him, and not to the grandson son of the deceased eldest son [...] That the lands of the crown of the kingdom should not be divided among the heirs [...] and when on the death of the possessor of the lands [...] no such male son remained of him [...]. ...] That the lands of the crown of the kingdom should not be divided among the heirs [...] and when, on the death of the possessor of the lands [...], there was no son [...] to whom they should be left, if any daughter remained, she could not inherit them

Which claim would be better would be up to whom the King declares as his favored heir in his will and testament, or whom he has sworn in as heir during a session of the Cortes. Duarte has all the connections and needed rights to ensure a very easy recognition of his statute as heir in the Cortes. By contrast Carlos has none, Filipe has some but the spanish claims in this are being contested by a far more likely candidate to be accepted by the Cortes and the spanish crown is near its first declaration of insolvency so how willing they will be to provide more than OTL concessions and bribes is quite in the open.

All captains involved in the expedition warned Sebastião that it was going to be a disaster, Filipe warned him that it was going to be a disaster. Portugal in the 1570s was in no state to engage in more giant dreams of Morocco domination, it was purely Sebastião who pushed for it against everyone's advice. Everyone since João III's time knew it and the abandonment of the wars in Morocco started under him, Sebastião very much went against the trend in Morocco that had been to abandon and consolidate around a handful of fortresses since the 1530s.
 
Alcacer Quibir was a project solely of Sebastião, everyone in the kingdom was against it, everyone told him that it was lunacy and already by João III's reign Portuguese policy in Morocco was to abandon most of the possessions there and just hold to a few enclaves that for political reasons. Portuguese involvement in Morocco to that scale at that stage is by no means a certainty.
Poeple have this misconception that João III simply gave up on Morocco, but this is not true, he only gave up on the less wealthed cities, but this doesn't automatically mean he didnt want to get involved in Moroccan Affairs, he still kept Moroccan Cities for Military actions and to keep a eye on Morocco, even in a letter he told the rest of Europe to keep a eye on Morocco, he wasnt that involved as the other previous Kings, but he wasnt planning on letting Morocco get reunified either. And I dont think if y'all know this
But Originally, Sebastian I was meant to have military involvements in Ireland and then Morocco, Thomas Stukley wanted to become King of Ireland and he swore sovereiganty
Sebastian I against England, and Sebastian basically scammed Thomas Stukley but Sebastian realized that breaking alliances with England was a bit too far.

How would Carlos I or Duarte II feel about this? would they actually support Thomas Stukley and betray England or not? if Portugal wins against England there is probably a possibality for a Irish portuguese puppet, ((but Obviously Sebastião knew this was impossible that is why he didn't support Stukleys mission.

Y'all hate on Sebastião for no reason he isn't any worse then Fernando I 💀💀💀💀💀💀
And I wouldn't take Filips advice any seriously aswell, I mean this is the same guy who ghosted against the Low Countries and in North Africa altough of course very notable
Literally every General in the court including Thomas Stukley knew this guy couldnt be trusted
And Joaõ III is so mid cmon now 💀💀💀💀💀💀
 
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