1379 Castilian succession crisis

[Jan Olbracht]

Lets say, that quick end came to the House of Trastamara in 1379: in January of that year John only son and heir of king Henry II, dies without issue, followed by father (who IOTL died in May 1379, son's death could hasten it).

What happens then? War of Castilian Succession?

Henry II of Castile still had one legitimate daughter, Eleanor, married to Charles of Navarre, but the throne of Castile is claimed also by monarchs of Portugal and Aragon and by John of Gaunt. Trastamaras ruled Castile for mere decade at this point and legitimacy of their claim was questioned. John of Gaunt would try to exploit situation and launch invasion of Castile few years earlier than IOTL. With what result? IOTL he had Portuguese backing, but in 1379 Portugal had a king, who had his own claim to Castilian throne.

 

[30PrincesAndAKing]

John of Gaunt would try to exploit situation and launch invasion of Castile few years earlier than IOTL.

John had (on paper) started making plans to invade Castile as early as Henry II's death OTL. This materialized into his brother Edmund's Portuguese venture of 1381-1382, the plans for which were probably hashed out around 1380. John's aim then had been to exploit the underaged King Juan and launch an attack on Castile with help from Ferdinand of Portugal and Edmund earl of Cambridge.

Even though Juan's death is a great divergence, I don't think John would have realistically been able to put things in motion any earlier than he did for the Portuguese campaign, since they would have started around the same time; the only difference is that John's exploiting a situation of 'no king at all,' rather than an underaged king. But he still can't charge in willy-nilly. These things take time.

Perhaps Juan's death will be the push John needs to actually commit to the Portuguese venture this time around? Despite his reputation of incompetence, Edmund actually seems to have played his part well OTL. The plan just hinged on John showing up and John never did; he was waiting for Parliament to give him funds. That said, it's my opinion that John's affinity and wealth were large enough (he was the richest man in England!) that he could have probably paid for troops out of his own pocket if he wanted to. Edmund made arrangements to that effect, and he was much poorer and less well-connected.

 

[material_boy]

John had (on paper) started making plans to invade Castile as early as Henry II's death OTL. This materialized into his brother Edmund's Portuguese venture of 1381-1382, the plans for which were probably hashed out around 1380. John's aim then had been to exploit the underaged King Juan and launch an attack on Castile with help from Ferdinand of Portugal and Edmund earl of Cambridge.

Even though Juan's death is a great divergence, I don't think John would have realistically been able to put things in motion any earlier than he did for the Portuguese campaign, since they would have started around the same time; the only difference is that John's exploiting a situation of 'no king at all,' rather than an underaged king. But he still can't charge in willy-nilly. These things take time.

Perhaps Juan's death will be the push John needs to actually commit to the Portuguese venture this time around? Despite his reputation of incompetence, Edmund actually seems to have played his part well OTL. The plan just hinged on John showing up and John never did; he was waiting for Parliament to give him funds. That said, it's my opinion that John's affinity and wealth were large enough (he was the richest man in England!) that he could have probably paid for troops out of his own pocket if he wanted to. Edmund made arrangements to that effect, and he was much poorer and less well-connected.

Langley's reputation for military incompetence is well-earned, but the Portuguese campaign was more the fault of Portugal. Ferdinand was totally unprepared to go to war when he invited the English in -- and he was still unprepared when they arrived months later. He had no horses for the English to ride, no food for them to eat, no place for them to winter, and then didn't bother to pay them the money he had promised. Honestly, it doesn't matter if Langley or Gaunt or even if the Black Prince comes back from the dead to lead the English, it's just very difficult to imagine a 1381 campaign being successful when this is your key ally.