First of all, very interesting. Quick question, how pacified is the internal situation? that is, compared to the height of the cultural revolution and where China would be at that point OTL.
Thanks. It's kind of a difficult question to answer at this point. Keep in mind that the height of the Cultural Revolution has already come and gone; the peak years were 1966-69, and by 1971, where I am now, some small measure of sanity was beginning to be restored. Of course, the current power struggle will change all that . . . how much so will be revealed in the next update.
IMO if Lin sacks the Gang of Four and moves closer to the moderates he will guarantee his position as national leader. OTOH if he sticks with the ultra-leftists he will find himself at odds with nearly all the surviving Marshals and senior party leaders (since they all got screwed by the ultra-leftists), which can only end in a military coup and Lin Biao cannot guarantee that he will come out on top.
So however this story ends, it will be quick and decisive. Not at all a continuation of the Cultural Revolution.
Well, right now there are three distinct factions struggling for power: Lin Biao, the Maoists, and the Zhou Clique. Lin will definitely not make common cause with the Maoists at this stage of the proceedings; after the events that I've previously described, the bridges are pretty well torched there. I agree with you that if Lin could engineer a rapprochement with the moderates, he'd be pretty well set. That's not out of the realm of possibility by any means. Zhou Enlai is in a much weaker position than the other two factions, and if he realizes that soon enough, he may be driven to cut a deal with Lin. But yeah, ultimately the PLA will be the kingmaker. Of course, given the disarray under which they were operating (ranks had been abolished), it may take a bit of time for everything to get sorted out.
Great Stuff! This is a real nail-biter! You've got a real sense of drama here, with the Night of Three Speeches and all. Gives the real-life CR a run for its money.
And though I was optimistic at first, I've got to agree with the "China looks pretty screwed" gang. Since Zhou Enlai has antagonized both the radical and military wings, it looks like any moderate/pragmatic influence isn't likely to survive if he loses
Thanks! In the short term, things don't look all that bad. For example, it's very unlikely that there will be any kind of protracted civil war. But in the long term, as you said, things aren't looking so positive right now. It's uncertain what position the "moderates" will be in when the dust settles, and the whole affair may lead to a presumption on the part of the PLA that they have a right to decide who becomes the Paramount Leader in the future, as well. And that would be very bad news.
Not an expert on China but for any degree of stability not only does it need one faction to win but also to win quickly and decisively. You do not want a large fraction of dissatisfied losers. They might be a source of later unrest and possibly for Lin in particular draw in external intervention. As such, under the best of results there is likely to be a good bit of instability and probably another round of purges of some kind or another to remove potential opponents from dangerous positions of influence.
I couldn't agree more. This is exactly what's likely to happen, no matter who wins. Even the "moderates" would be purging people left and right if they won, which is unlikely, and a prolonged conflict would be disastrous. But for all the reasons listed above by tallwingedgoat, it's probable that the power struggle will be nasty, brutish, and short (apologies to Thomas Hobbes). Of course, that's assuming that no Unforeseen Events occur . . .
Hmm, Jiang Jieshi would still be in power at this point (that is, until he drops dead in 1975 from renal failure), and I don't think that Jiang would be willing to pick a side (since he still has his delusions about "recovering" the Mainland, which at this point is ASB). As for Jiang Jingguo - we shall see, though I believe he also may not pick a side, even if he does his political reforms either as in OTL or earlier.
Yeah, I can't see either of the Jiangs doing much. In fact, for reasons that will be explained in the next update, no foreign power is going to do much.
*The next update will hopefully be ready by tomorrow. I just have to write it.
