During the WW1 of our world, Russia was a hot mess of underdevelopment, infighting and well, the Germans. Russia was caught unprepared and off guard for something it was not Ready for, costing it land, men and power. I seek to make the fewest changes in the latest timeframe to stop this Loss. I want to make Russia win WW1.
1900: in 1900 we will have the Russians be far more involved in the Bulgarian and Serbian states, helping with troops, arms, and government. If the Tsar played his cards right, Russia could put these states firmly in Russia orbit, having influence in their government. Considering Russian influence in Serbia, Russian Influence in Montenegro would also fall into Russia's Orbit. While Montenegro itself is not strong, it has a very interesting future, an Adriatic coastline, which while not useful now as Montenegro doesn't have a border with any other Pro-Russian state, when the Ottomans fall it could be very useful.
We will also have Russia build more Railroads around the nation, allowing for quick movement of People, troops and recourses, this allowing for natural recourses to be extracted. More specifically we will have a better and more significant east-west Railroads be built, this would not only secure the Russian Far East and allow for a larger Military presence, this also allows for the Far est to develop, increasing the future potential of Siberia.
To increase Russia's military power we will have France help it develop a modern military, sending commanders and advisors to the Russian's to help them create a cohesive and powerful military.
1904: When the Russo-Japanese war breaks out, to help Russia with a victory in WW1, we will have Japan lose. We can have this happen in many ways, but we will have the simplest occur. With Russia having more east west connectivity they can safely move their army to the east quicker. To increase Russia's Naval ability's we will have not all the Russian ships be destroyed at port Arthur, negating the need to bring the Baltic fleet to the Pacific. With a stronger Russian Presence and droves of better armed and supplied Russians its possible the Japan simply loses the conventional war. Assuming Russia manages a strong victory we can have one of 3 things happen: a status quo peace, keeping the pre-1904 borders, making Japan a humiliated but not ostracized power, this would allow Russia massive influence in Korea and Manchuria, making them near puppets, but this would be quite unlikely, especially if the casualty count is High; The second option is Russia annexing Hokkaido, the northern most Japanese island, which would massively increase russian presence in the pacific, and as the Island was a recent gain of Japan, it wasn't fully Japanese, making it a fair peace deal; the 3rd option is a full Russian revanchist victory, were they take not only Hokkaido but northern Japan as a spoil of war, but this is massively unlikely. We will go with the 2nd option to keep realism to a max. This was not only gains Russia land and Influence, but it also prevents the Tsar being discredited, allowing for a massive boost in his legitimacy.
Speaking of the Tsar we will have Rasputin not join the Royal family, to keep public opinion up. With French investment into Russia, a basic industry could be started,m, with natural recourses subsidising this industrial movement, we will have this be a great success, boosting Russian domestic production. This would not be a massive boost, but it would allow the Russians to arm some their own soldiers, though they would still need to by guns from outside nations.
1910: When the first Balkan war breaks out, we will have Russia assist their Allies in the war, never joining directly, but providing men and guns to increase influence in the new balkan states. Considering how quickly the Ottomans lost in our timeline, with Russian support they would lose fast with few casualty's. To increase Russian influence in this new Balkans, we will prevent the Great powers from joining in the Peace, which prevents Albania, as it was made by the Great powers, so it would be divided between Serbia and Greece. Other changes include: Macedonia being Split between Bulgaria and Serbia, as to keep good relations with both; Vulgaria and Serbia would gain lands that were parts of Greece, as Russian aid would allow them to Push further. With Russia overseaning the peace, the IInd balkan war would be avoided, meaning these borders would stick. With Russian troops in the States, Russia would gain yet more Influence in Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro, making them effective protectorates.
1911: We will have Russia see the tensions Growing in Europe and would begin to militarise, with French help, the Russian army would be more modernised and more prepared, meaning they could fight more effectively. We will also have Russia build defences near the Russo-German border, to make this easier we will have this happen over a strong river, im leaning towards the Vistula river in Warsaw, or the Bug river on the Polish outskirts. We will pick the Bug river as it is larger and more defensible. It is further east, meaning they would lose more lands before Germany gets to the Defences, hut the benefits are better than the costs.
1914: Once arch duke Frans ferdinand is assassinated, the moment this occurs Russia begins to Mobilise. Its limited Industry would be turned into gun production, they would purchase military supplies from all of their neighbors, and they would inform their spherlings in the Balkans to mobilise. When the War is declare and Germany moves through Belgium the real war begins.
The Russians make some early gains in east Prussia and SIlesia, and Large Gains in Galicia. The push into Galicia forces Austria to direct troops there, which makes the Pressure on Serbia less extreme. After this Offensive Russia would retreat back to their Defences on the bug river. These offenses do Change German priority's in the east to taking back what was already lost, providing a distraction to give the Russians more time to mobilise. With both Bulgaria and Serbia fighting Austria, we can expect the Balkan front to never truly end, as the only way Austria took out Serbia was with Bulgarian help, with instead, Bulgaria assisting Serbia it would provide a 3rd front for Germany to fight.
The western front being largely the same, aside from a slightly weaker German force due to the extra distractions.
Austria would likley see defeat after defeat in the southern front, as the incompetent Austrian army has to fight a stronger enemy in Serbia and Bulgaria in lands that didn't want them, likley seeing large parts of Bosnia and southern Croatia lost to them.
Once the Ottomans Join they would likley see a small push into eastern Anatolia by Russia, as the Russians can move troops more effectively to the caucuses, expect more land to be taken there. The invasion of Gallipoli would likley be even more important, as Russian Bulgaria was on the doorstep of Constantinople which would be unacceptable to the UK. Russia may already have access to the mediterranean through Bulgaria and Montenegro, the UK would oppose the Russian desire of constantinople less, but it would still be important. To increase Russian power in the Balkans we will have the Gallipoli Invasion be decisively crushed. Along with the Russian sphere in the Balkans the ottomans would be in a tough spot, as Bulgaria is on the doorstep of Constantinople, assuming it isn't taken immediately, it would become a constant anxiety, forcing them to keep large forces in the city to hold off a future advance.
An interesting possibility is Greece could Join the central powers, as all of their land neighbors where in the Entente, and they would be angry with Bulgaria for holding lands they thought rightfully greek, the pro-German king could see more support to join the Central powers, however they bitter hatred towards the ottomans, the land they gained in Albania, and their ally of Britain, I still see them siding with the Entente. Though, if you want a more interesting scenario them siding with Germany could be thought up.
The Germans would eventually mop up Poland, seeing little resistance as the main Russian force was along their defences. With the Russian army in a defensive line, with better guns, and a more distracted Germany we can expect high German casualty's and a war much more similar to the western front than the eastern one of our timeline, with both in a stalemate.
Now, is this realistic? No, a war of attrition in the east would be quickly broken by the better German divisions. However, the Changes we have made, distracting Austria and Germany in Balkans with Serbia & Bulgaria, making a strong Russian defense, a better armed and industrialised Russia, these changes make this at the very least possible for a war of Attrition. And while it would be bloody, and while it would be painful, it would be stable. Russia could move wheat from Ukraine safely across their railroads to the front, no costly pushes that took Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic, it would only be by meters the front moved, pushes over the river being destroyed by the Russians and Vice Versa.
With a weakened Austria, with most of its army down south, we could expect Italy to Join a bit earlier, as the Distracted and failing Austria would make easier target, getting them in months earlier, sometime in January. This entry would spell disaster for Austria, making them fight of 3 fronts, with Italy making early gains as Serbia renews its offensive, taking all of Bosnia. With Austria in chaos, Germany would have to take troops of a front to deal with this, and, considering how much they feared Russia along with how well they have been doing, they would likley take it off the western font. I doubt the front would move, trench warfare and only small numbers leaving does that, so the main conquence would be less pressure on france and the UK. Once the Germans arrive and show the Austrians how to do their job and fight, so the Front stabilises.
Once 1916 rolls around, Austria would once again face more pressure, as The entry of Romania adds yet another front, and Yet another army for the Austrians to Hold. Along with Romania giving Russia a land route into their sphere into the Balkans, this allowing Russia to increase their offensives in the region, most notably, in thrace. With constantinople hanging in the balance, whatever Russian troops they could spare, along with men from the austrian front coming to assist as Austria now has to deal with Romania. I can imagine a Direct Russian conquest of Constantinople, occupying the city. With this the Ottomans would capitulate, freeing up key recourses to be used Against Austria and Germany.
Austria was already in a weak state before the war, once the war started they were hanging in the balance, with renewed Italian, Romanian, Serbian/Bulgarian and Russian advances they would be in anarchy. Revolts in Hungry, Transylvania, Czechia, Slovakia and Galicia would shock the nation as other nations watch in Horror and Glee. Hundreds of Years of Multi-Ethnic oppression, Centuries of Austrian, Hungarian and Austro-Hungarian rule finnlay comes to a boiling point. The one and a half thousand year Empire falls to the nations both inside and out, that wanted it gone. In the power vacuum German troops would cross into Galicia from their positions in Poland, and take Bohemia and Austria from Bavaria and Silesia. Italy would move into Tyrol and Istria, while seizing the Dalmation islands. Russia would Push into Bosnia, Croatia and Vojvodina, while challenging German and Italian armies in Slovenia. Other states would seize other lands while Hungry goes into a full on Communist revolt. With their main ally gone the Germans would begin to consider surrender, though not close to it in reality.
When 1917 begins the West would begin to make some headway, while the Russians prepare for a large offensive into Hungry to crush the communists, this coming through Russian held Vojvodina. Considering the Anarchy in Hungry this would be relatively swift, with Romanian help as Russia promises to move their borders as far west as the Tisa rover, Slovakian and Ukrainian revolts wouldn't help the Hungarian situation. Many people might welcome the Russians as a fellow eastern state here to help.
When the US joins, which I see no reason why they wouldn't, US troops would be a much more supportive force, as Germany is already on the Verge of collapse. As the west makes their Push into German France and Belgium,m the Russians would Finally leave their defensive lines, Pushing into Poland, East Prussia and Galicia, this offensive would be assisted by Balkan divisions entering over the Carpathians. With Germany being Pushed into from all sides we can expect Germany to surrender months before they did in our timeline, likley in June or July 1918.
Now that this war is over, we have to think of the peace deal. Some General themes to expect are:
France:
Considering Frances position, Germanys weaker negotiating power, and the higher revanchism, they directly annex the tsarland. We could also see not only the Rhineland, but also Hesse be demilitarised, meaning there is no German Military on the Franco-German border. We could also see even higher reparations to France.
Britain & USA:
I put these two together as nothing major changes for them, however they would be anti-Russian expansion, and heavily oppose Russian demands on Constantinople.
Serbia:
I can imagine Serbia gets all the lands it got in our timeline, plus maybe some parts of Austria with Slovenian minority's. Perhaps they also gains some more concessions from Hungry, but considering how harsh the Punishment of Hungry would be, with the border being at the Tisa river, this is unlikely. I don't see Italian IStra changing, as Serbia, or now, Yugoslavia would not want to annex further lands which Italy wanted to keep relations up.
Bulgaria:
They don't change much, aside from some concessions in thrace, they remain largely the same as pre war, maybe getting some Reparations.
Russia:
Russia, as I have said, loses no land, instead they gain a lot. Being the focus of this scenario they will have their gains in bullet points as to not make your eyes belled from a wall of text:
Russia would now have solidified itself as the dominant eastern power. With Relatives of the Tsar on the throne of Hungry and Czechoslovakia, Massive european land gains and the Capital of the Byzantine Empire now a Russian land. The Tsars popularity would explode. With Russia a huge state stretching from Kamchatka in the east to Czechia in the west. The double headed eagle of the Romanovs have now decisively won the Great war, and what a great war it was.
1900: in 1900 we will have the Russians be far more involved in the Bulgarian and Serbian states, helping with troops, arms, and government. If the Tsar played his cards right, Russia could put these states firmly in Russia orbit, having influence in their government. Considering Russian influence in Serbia, Russian Influence in Montenegro would also fall into Russia's Orbit. While Montenegro itself is not strong, it has a very interesting future, an Adriatic coastline, which while not useful now as Montenegro doesn't have a border with any other Pro-Russian state, when the Ottomans fall it could be very useful.
We will also have Russia build more Railroads around the nation, allowing for quick movement of People, troops and recourses, this allowing for natural recourses to be extracted. More specifically we will have a better and more significant east-west Railroads be built, this would not only secure the Russian Far East and allow for a larger Military presence, this also allows for the Far est to develop, increasing the future potential of Siberia.
To increase Russia's military power we will have France help it develop a modern military, sending commanders and advisors to the Russian's to help them create a cohesive and powerful military.
1904: When the Russo-Japanese war breaks out, to help Russia with a victory in WW1, we will have Japan lose. We can have this happen in many ways, but we will have the simplest occur. With Russia having more east west connectivity they can safely move their army to the east quicker. To increase Russia's Naval ability's we will have not all the Russian ships be destroyed at port Arthur, negating the need to bring the Baltic fleet to the Pacific. With a stronger Russian Presence and droves of better armed and supplied Russians its possible the Japan simply loses the conventional war. Assuming Russia manages a strong victory we can have one of 3 things happen: a status quo peace, keeping the pre-1904 borders, making Japan a humiliated but not ostracized power, this would allow Russia massive influence in Korea and Manchuria, making them near puppets, but this would be quite unlikely, especially if the casualty count is High; The second option is Russia annexing Hokkaido, the northern most Japanese island, which would massively increase russian presence in the pacific, and as the Island was a recent gain of Japan, it wasn't fully Japanese, making it a fair peace deal; the 3rd option is a full Russian revanchist victory, were they take not only Hokkaido but northern Japan as a spoil of war, but this is massively unlikely. We will go with the 2nd option to keep realism to a max. This was not only gains Russia land and Influence, but it also prevents the Tsar being discredited, allowing for a massive boost in his legitimacy.
Speaking of the Tsar we will have Rasputin not join the Royal family, to keep public opinion up. With French investment into Russia, a basic industry could be started,m, with natural recourses subsidising this industrial movement, we will have this be a great success, boosting Russian domestic production. This would not be a massive boost, but it would allow the Russians to arm some their own soldiers, though they would still need to by guns from outside nations.
1910: When the first Balkan war breaks out, we will have Russia assist their Allies in the war, never joining directly, but providing men and guns to increase influence in the new balkan states. Considering how quickly the Ottomans lost in our timeline, with Russian support they would lose fast with few casualty's. To increase Russian influence in this new Balkans, we will prevent the Great powers from joining in the Peace, which prevents Albania, as it was made by the Great powers, so it would be divided between Serbia and Greece. Other changes include: Macedonia being Split between Bulgaria and Serbia, as to keep good relations with both; Vulgaria and Serbia would gain lands that were parts of Greece, as Russian aid would allow them to Push further. With Russia overseaning the peace, the IInd balkan war would be avoided, meaning these borders would stick. With Russian troops in the States, Russia would gain yet more Influence in Serbia, Bulgaria and Montenegro, making them effective protectorates.
1911: We will have Russia see the tensions Growing in Europe and would begin to militarise, with French help, the Russian army would be more modernised and more prepared, meaning they could fight more effectively. We will also have Russia build defences near the Russo-German border, to make this easier we will have this happen over a strong river, im leaning towards the Vistula river in Warsaw, or the Bug river on the Polish outskirts. We will pick the Bug river as it is larger and more defensible. It is further east, meaning they would lose more lands before Germany gets to the Defences, hut the benefits are better than the costs.
1914: Once arch duke Frans ferdinand is assassinated, the moment this occurs Russia begins to Mobilise. Its limited Industry would be turned into gun production, they would purchase military supplies from all of their neighbors, and they would inform their spherlings in the Balkans to mobilise. When the War is declare and Germany moves through Belgium the real war begins.
The Russians make some early gains in east Prussia and SIlesia, and Large Gains in Galicia. The push into Galicia forces Austria to direct troops there, which makes the Pressure on Serbia less extreme. After this Offensive Russia would retreat back to their Defences on the bug river. These offenses do Change German priority's in the east to taking back what was already lost, providing a distraction to give the Russians more time to mobilise. With both Bulgaria and Serbia fighting Austria, we can expect the Balkan front to never truly end, as the only way Austria took out Serbia was with Bulgarian help, with instead, Bulgaria assisting Serbia it would provide a 3rd front for Germany to fight.
The western front being largely the same, aside from a slightly weaker German force due to the extra distractions.
Austria would likley see defeat after defeat in the southern front, as the incompetent Austrian army has to fight a stronger enemy in Serbia and Bulgaria in lands that didn't want them, likley seeing large parts of Bosnia and southern Croatia lost to them.
Once the Ottomans Join they would likley see a small push into eastern Anatolia by Russia, as the Russians can move troops more effectively to the caucuses, expect more land to be taken there. The invasion of Gallipoli would likley be even more important, as Russian Bulgaria was on the doorstep of Constantinople which would be unacceptable to the UK. Russia may already have access to the mediterranean through Bulgaria and Montenegro, the UK would oppose the Russian desire of constantinople less, but it would still be important. To increase Russian power in the Balkans we will have the Gallipoli Invasion be decisively crushed. Along with the Russian sphere in the Balkans the ottomans would be in a tough spot, as Bulgaria is on the doorstep of Constantinople, assuming it isn't taken immediately, it would become a constant anxiety, forcing them to keep large forces in the city to hold off a future advance.
An interesting possibility is Greece could Join the central powers, as all of their land neighbors where in the Entente, and they would be angry with Bulgaria for holding lands they thought rightfully greek, the pro-German king could see more support to join the Central powers, however they bitter hatred towards the ottomans, the land they gained in Albania, and their ally of Britain, I still see them siding with the Entente. Though, if you want a more interesting scenario them siding with Germany could be thought up.
The Germans would eventually mop up Poland, seeing little resistance as the main Russian force was along their defences. With the Russian army in a defensive line, with better guns, and a more distracted Germany we can expect high German casualty's and a war much more similar to the western front than the eastern one of our timeline, with both in a stalemate.
Now, is this realistic? No, a war of attrition in the east would be quickly broken by the better German divisions. However, the Changes we have made, distracting Austria and Germany in Balkans with Serbia & Bulgaria, making a strong Russian defense, a better armed and industrialised Russia, these changes make this at the very least possible for a war of Attrition. And while it would be bloody, and while it would be painful, it would be stable. Russia could move wheat from Ukraine safely across their railroads to the front, no costly pushes that took Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic, it would only be by meters the front moved, pushes over the river being destroyed by the Russians and Vice Versa.
With a weakened Austria, with most of its army down south, we could expect Italy to Join a bit earlier, as the Distracted and failing Austria would make easier target, getting them in months earlier, sometime in January. This entry would spell disaster for Austria, making them fight of 3 fronts, with Italy making early gains as Serbia renews its offensive, taking all of Bosnia. With Austria in chaos, Germany would have to take troops of a front to deal with this, and, considering how much they feared Russia along with how well they have been doing, they would likley take it off the western font. I doubt the front would move, trench warfare and only small numbers leaving does that, so the main conquence would be less pressure on france and the UK. Once the Germans arrive and show the Austrians how to do their job and fight, so the Front stabilises.
Once 1916 rolls around, Austria would once again face more pressure, as The entry of Romania adds yet another front, and Yet another army for the Austrians to Hold. Along with Romania giving Russia a land route into their sphere into the Balkans, this allowing Russia to increase their offensives in the region, most notably, in thrace. With constantinople hanging in the balance, whatever Russian troops they could spare, along with men from the austrian front coming to assist as Austria now has to deal with Romania. I can imagine a Direct Russian conquest of Constantinople, occupying the city. With this the Ottomans would capitulate, freeing up key recourses to be used Against Austria and Germany.
Austria was already in a weak state before the war, once the war started they were hanging in the balance, with renewed Italian, Romanian, Serbian/Bulgarian and Russian advances they would be in anarchy. Revolts in Hungry, Transylvania, Czechia, Slovakia and Galicia would shock the nation as other nations watch in Horror and Glee. Hundreds of Years of Multi-Ethnic oppression, Centuries of Austrian, Hungarian and Austro-Hungarian rule finnlay comes to a boiling point. The one and a half thousand year Empire falls to the nations both inside and out, that wanted it gone. In the power vacuum German troops would cross into Galicia from their positions in Poland, and take Bohemia and Austria from Bavaria and Silesia. Italy would move into Tyrol and Istria, while seizing the Dalmation islands. Russia would Push into Bosnia, Croatia and Vojvodina, while challenging German and Italian armies in Slovenia. Other states would seize other lands while Hungry goes into a full on Communist revolt. With their main ally gone the Germans would begin to consider surrender, though not close to it in reality.
When 1917 begins the West would begin to make some headway, while the Russians prepare for a large offensive into Hungry to crush the communists, this coming through Russian held Vojvodina. Considering the Anarchy in Hungry this would be relatively swift, with Romanian help as Russia promises to move their borders as far west as the Tisa rover, Slovakian and Ukrainian revolts wouldn't help the Hungarian situation. Many people might welcome the Russians as a fellow eastern state here to help.
When the US joins, which I see no reason why they wouldn't, US troops would be a much more supportive force, as Germany is already on the Verge of collapse. As the west makes their Push into German France and Belgium,m the Russians would Finally leave their defensive lines, Pushing into Poland, East Prussia and Galicia, this offensive would be assisted by Balkan divisions entering over the Carpathians. With Germany being Pushed into from all sides we can expect Germany to surrender months before they did in our timeline, likley in June or July 1918.
Now that this war is over, we have to think of the peace deal. Some General themes to expect are:
- The US has a less important role, meaning, while wilson still gets listened too, self determination would be less important
- Russia would not lose any land as they are a winning power, likley gaining influence, puppets and direct annexations
- Russia would be able to act upon the commitment from France and Britain to give them Constantinople
- France would be a stronger power as they didn't lose as much land to Germany in the initial invasion
- There would be a more revanchist view on the war, as Russia and France are in a better position to make demands, while the US is in a weaker position
France:
Considering Frances position, Germanys weaker negotiating power, and the higher revanchism, they directly annex the tsarland. We could also see not only the Rhineland, but also Hesse be demilitarised, meaning there is no German Military on the Franco-German border. We could also see even higher reparations to France.
Britain & USA:
I put these two together as nothing major changes for them, however they would be anti-Russian expansion, and heavily oppose Russian demands on Constantinople.
Serbia:
I can imagine Serbia gets all the lands it got in our timeline, plus maybe some parts of Austria with Slovenian minority's. Perhaps they also gains some more concessions from Hungry, but considering how harsh the Punishment of Hungry would be, with the border being at the Tisa river, this is unlikely. I don't see Italian IStra changing, as Serbia, or now, Yugoslavia would not want to annex further lands which Italy wanted to keep relations up.
Bulgaria:
They don't change much, aside from some concessions in thrace, they remain largely the same as pre war, maybe getting some Reparations.
Russia:
Russia, as I have said, loses no land, instead they gain a lot. Being the focus of this scenario they will have their gains in bullet points as to not make your eyes belled from a wall of text:
- Russia would gain large concessions from Germany, taking parts of East Prussia, Mhemal, and Parts of silesia. They would also see Great expansion into Posen and Parts of Brandenburg, pushing the Russo-German border closer to Berlin, making any future war a job of simply marching across the planes into their Capital. They would also gain Reparations, and would demilitarise their Russian border, and would demilitarise all the way to Berlin.
- Austria-Hungry would also not be spared, with Russia taking the Majority Polish land of western Galicia, and the Majority Ukrainian land of eastern Galicia. Carpathian Ruthenia would also be taken as it was Majority Ukrainian too. They would also Set up a puppet state in a reduced Hungry, with their borders shrunk even more than in our timeline, giving them a way to their balkan puppets without Romania. They would also set up a new Czechoslovak state, as a puppet of course.
- The Ottomans are interesting. Russian gains in Armenia would Remain unopposed, and even an expansion into Anatolia would be largely accepted. But the issue comes with Constantinople. France and the US would be largely neutral in the affair but the UK vehemently oppose a Russian annexation of the city, though I doubt they could stop the. Russia owned and occupied the city, whether or not Britain denied them they couldn't force Russia out any way short of war, a war which they would have no friend in and the public would have no appetite for. What soldier would fight to stop Russia from gaining more access to the mediterranean, they already had access at 2 points, why fight over a 3rd? I guess Britain would allow the annexation, maybe Russia makes some trade concessions there, but they secure the city of the worlds disieres.
Russia would now have solidified itself as the dominant eastern power. With Relatives of the Tsar on the throne of Hungry and Czechoslovakia, Massive european land gains and the Capital of the Byzantine Empire now a Russian land. The Tsars popularity would explode. With Russia a huge state stretching from Kamchatka in the east to Czechia in the west. The double headed eagle of the Romanovs have now decisively won the Great war, and what a great war it was.
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