Żelazny król: Frederick the Iron succeedes Vladislaus Jogaila

[Jan Olbracht]

Frederick the Iron on Polish throne appeared in TLs before as secondary POD (used for example by @The Undead Martyr in his Visconti TL) so that is not very original idea. Although I'm going to focus on Frederick's succession in Poland as main POD here.
So change is not very complicated-Jogaila's fourth wife has no kids with him, it became clear after few years that King would not have a son, thus his daughter from second marriage with Anna of Cili remains his heiress.
Jogaila's daughter Hedwig was born in 1408, through her mother she was great-granddaughter of Casimir the Great. In 1413 she was proclaimed heiress of the Kingdom in Jedlnia. She was betrothed to Frederick, later called the Iron, second son of Elector of Brandenburg Frederick I Hohenzollern. Young Frederick was send to Poland to learn language and customs of the Kingdom he was planned to rule as husband of Hedwig. Things changes were Hedwig's half brothers were born and Jogaila had to disinherit his daughter (which wasn't easy, because they were born from wrong mother) his struggle was partially successfull-he secured throne for his male heir, but unlike Hedwig, his sons were denied hereditary rights to the Polish throne. Something like this would not happen ITTL. Jogaila's daughter is proclaimed heiress already, with stronger rights to the throne than his OTL sons. Thus Frederick's succession in Poland would be less problematic than that of Vladislaus III IOTL (especially taking into account his age-he was 11 years older than Vladislaus III was). @krieget Lithuania-that is another story. Unlike Poland Lithuania lacks tradition of female succession and there are plenty of male Gediminids around. Vytautas accepted Frederick as heir of Lithuania as well and Frederick was for a while under his custody in Vilnius. Thus after Vytautas' death Jogaila would want his son-in-law to succeede Vytautas as next Grand Duke. IOTL Jogaila attempted to retake personal rule in Lithuania after death of Vytautas and his attempt inflicted rebellion of Švitrigaila and civil war in Lithuania. Frederick is not the same person as Jogaila, so if he is installed in Vilnius Lithuania would still have separate Grand Duke, but:
-Frederick is Jogaila's obvious heir in Poland
-he is not Gediminid
So there would still be a war with Švitrigaila and his supporters, question is: would it start immediately after death of Vytautas or would it happen after death of Jogaila, after Frederick takes Polish Crown and leave Vilnius for Cracow? @Augenis ?

Would Polish-Lithuanian union survive in such circumstances?

Brandenburg is another question. Frederick I had enough sons to appoint another one as successor of his Electoral title, Frederick IOTL was selected by father despite not being oldest, so nothing impossible about this.

 

[Augenis]

Lithuania-that is another story. Unlike Poland Lithuania lacks tradition of female succession and there are plenty of male Gediminids around. Vytautas accepted Frederick as heir of Lithuania as well and Frederick was for a while under his custody in Vilnius. Thus after Vytautas' death Jogaila would want his son-in-law to succeede Vytautas as next Grand Duke. IOTL Jogaila attempted to retake personal rule in Lithuania after death of Vytautas and his attempt inflicted rebellion of Švitrigaila and civil war in Lithuania. Frederick is not the same person as Jogaila, so if he is installed in Vilnius Lithuania would still have separate Grand Duke, but:
-Frederick is Jogaila's obvious heir in Poland
-he is not Gediminid
So there would still be a war with Švitrigaila and his supporters, question is: would it start immediately after death of Vytautas or would it happen after death of Jogaila, after Frederick takes Polish Crown and leave Vilnius for Cracow? @Augenis ?

I haven't heard about Vytautas accepting Frederick as his heir, but I don't see why the initial years after his death should be significantly different. Ultimately, no matter whom Vytautas wished to see as his successor, it didn't matter, because he died suddenly, without a will or a designated heir. The Lithuanian nobility would thus still elect Švitrigaila as the new Grand Duke, Poland would still demand Švitrigaila to swear fealty to Jogaila and he would decline, leading to the Polish-Lithuanian War. Assuming the war goes the same course as it did OTL, the Treaty of Staryi Chortorysk would still be signed and the Lithuanian Civil War would break out nonetheless.

The question then is who gets to succeed Žygimantas Kęstutaitis when/if he dies in 1440. In OTL, he made it certain that he will be succeeded by a Jagiellon, and that's what happened - but there are no Jagiellons, only a King of Poland connected to him through marriage ties, and no other children of Jogaila, so I'm not sure if the same compromise of electing Casimir could take place.

Maybe, if Frederick and Jadwiga already have a child by 1440, the Lithuanians could hand the crown to him.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

IIRC the issue with Brandenburg is that Federicks older son was ma firstly unsuited and thus willingly abdicated.

In practice I suspect it could have easily gone any way one wanted, but a dynastic union with Brandenburg makes a fair bit of geopolitical and dynastic sense- it combines a royal title with an electoral one and would thus potentially put the dynasty in the running for the HRE (remember that the Habsburgs still relatively weak, having just lost hungary and regained the HRE and a unified Austria proper; spain and Burgundy are well in the future if they still happen at all) particularly if Poland is pursuing westward expansion towards eg Silesia or Pomerania as the Hohenzillerns have dynastic claims on those lands which would be reinforced by medieval polands vestigial claim to the territories.

Lithuania initially might go along as indeed they had nominally agreed to, but whether the union persists as long as it did OTL is another question. If Lithuania is overly rambunctious it may well make sense (and would be well grounded in inheritance law) to split it off under a cadet line. This could perhaps lead even to a Hohenzollern Russia-Lithuania union if say the eastern dynasty is willing to pull a Henry and convert to orthodoxy during the time of troubles.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

I haven't heard about Vytautas accepting Frederick as his heir, but I don't see why the initial years after his death should be significantly different. Ultimately, no matter whom Vytautas wished to see as his successor, it didn't matter, because he died suddenly, without a will or a designated heir. The Lithuanian nobility would thus still elect Švitrigaila as the new Grand Duke, Poland would still demand Švitrigaila to swear fealty to Jogaila and he would decline, leading to the Polish-Lithuanian War. Assuming the war goes the same course as it did OTL, the Treaty of Staryi Chortorysk would still be signed and the Lithuanian Civil War would break out nonetheless.

The question then is who gets to succeed Žygimantas Kęstutaitis when/if he dies in 1440. In OTL, he made it certain that he will be succeeded by a Jagiellon, and that's what happened - but there are no Jagiellons, only a King of Poland connected to him through marriage ties, and no other children of Jogaila, so I'm not sure if the same compromise of electing Casimir could take place.

Maybe, if Frederick and Jadwiga already have a child by 1440, the Lithuanians could hand the crown to him.

Frederick's child likely would not be older than 10 at the time, although Casimir was send to Lithuania at age 12, so it could work. Magnates of GDL should be happy, because for few years young Duke would not be able to rule personally (that was true also for Casimir).

That is propably best option-Švitrigaila was old and already tried solution while Mykolas Žygimantaitis is hardly acceptable after 1440-he could seek for revenge for his father's assassination. It may become custom over time, that heir to the throne rules in GDL and then leaves Lithuania to his own heir upon taking Polish throne.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

IIRC the issue with Brandenburg is that Federicks older son was ma firstly unsuited and thus willingly abdicated.

In practice I suspect it could have easily gone any way one wanted, but a dynastic union with Brandenburg makes a fair bit of geopolitical and dynastic sense- it combines a royal title with an electoral one and would thus potentially put the dynasty in the running for the HRE (remember that the Habsburgs still relatively weak, having just lost hungary and regained the HRE and a unified Austria proper; spain and Burgundy are well in the future if they still happen at all) particularly if Poland is pursuing westward expansion towards eg Silesia or Pomerania as the Hohenzillerns have dynastic claims on those lands which would be reinforced by medieval polands vestigial claim to the territories.

Lithuania initially might go along as indeed they had nominally agreed to, but whether the union persists as long as it did OTL is another question. If Lithuania is overly rambunctious it may well make sense (and would be well grounded in inheritance law) to split it off under a cadet line. This could perhaps lead even to a Hohenzollern Russia-Lithuania union if say the eastern dynasty is willing to pull a Henry and convert to orthodoxy during the time of troubles.

There is also another direction Hohenzollerns could expand-Scandinavia. IOTL Swedish rebels twice proposed Swedish crown to Sigismund Jagiellon, some ATL Hohenzollern may accept proposition and Baltic would turn into Hohenzollern lake. But that is story for the next century.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

There is also another direction Hohenzollerns could expand-Scandinavia. IOTL Swedish rebels twice proposed Swedish crown to Sigismund Jagiellon, some ATL Hohenzollern may accept proposition and Baltic would turn into Hohenzollern lake. But that is story for the next century.

Indeed. Sweden as a sort of Finland analogue in a Lithianian led Russia (or just a Brandenburg-PLC union) would be an interesting development, though I suspect the country would be about as unruly as the Finns were to Russia or maybe worse.

Regardless I doubt te Hohenzillerns would be in any position to unite Germany. If anything we could reverse it with a Hohenzollern dual monarchy and a Hasbutg (for instance) led Reich possibly including the Low Countries, though obviously it would not be a one to one parallel as Poland is far less moribund than medieval Hungary was (not that they were helpless, just that Hungary rested on far flimsier demographic and political foundations than Poland would, and combined with Brandenburg's poverty and the existence of Sorbians among other things I suspect the tail would be wagging the dog vis a vis Germany and Polish internal relations, much like how Norman England eventually overtook Nomandy proper or Castille swamped the Aragonese).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Indeed. Sweden as a sort of Finland analogue in a Lithianian led Russia (or just a Brandenburg-PLC union) would be an interesting development, though I suspect the country would be about as unruly as the Finns were to Russia or maybe worse.

Regardless I doubt te Hohenzillerns would be in any position to unite Germany. If anything we could reverse it with a Hohenzollern dual monarchy and a Hasbutg (for instance) led Reich possibly including the Low Countries, though obviously it would not be a one to one parallel as Poland is far less moribund than medieval Hungary was (not that they were helpless, just that Hungary rested on far flimsier demographic and political foundations than Poland would, and combined with Brandenburg's poverty and the existence of Sorbians among other things I suspect the tail would be wagging the dog vis a vis Germany and Polish internal relations, much like how Norman England eventually overtook Nomandy proper or Castille swamped the Aragonese).

Personal or dynastic union with Poland keeps Brandenburg Catholic, so there would be rift between Brandenburg and neighbouring north German states. Habsburg Empire could be easily butterflied away, although they had strong claims to Bohemia and Hungary since time of marriage of Albert Habsburg and Elizabeth of Luxembourg and from time of succession treaties they made with Luxembourgs, so they may get Bohemia-Hungary one day (which would prevent also them from uniting Germany).

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Personal or dynastic union with Poland keeps Brandenburg Catholic, so there would be rift between Brandenburg and neighbouring north German states. Habsburg Empire could be easily butterflied away, although they had strony claims to Bohemia and Hungary since time of marriage of Albert Habsburg and Elizabeth of Luxembourg and from time of succession treaties they made with Luxembourgs, so they may get Bohemia-Hungary one day (which would prevent also them from uniting Germany).

That depends on whether there's still a reformarion and it still spreads as OTL. With a 15th century PoD that's certainly likely but by no means inevitable- Brandenburg staying catholic means that one of the OTL protestant electors, and eventual leader of north germany, stays catholic- who is going to fill that void, saxony? The Dutch? Denmark? Short of something wierd like a centralizing Julich->Rhineland Westphalia or an uber Bavaria Germany will lack a clear candidate for leading any possible unification. HRE and German politics become unrecognizable from the Thirty Years war on even assuming minimal divergences in Central Europe.

A Poland which is involving itself consistently in Gemran politics also has its own implications- assuming the Habsburgs still happen Hohenzollern Poland becomes an obvious ally for the French, regaining Silesia and clientizing Bohemia, Transylvania and Moravia/Slovakia were all Polish ambitions which could be fulfilled TTL (Poland-Brandenburg won't be able to annex Bohemia outright given HRE traditions, they'd have to put it under a cadet line or else renounce one of the elector titles, or else wait for the HRE to be abolished I suppose; Slovakia is another story and potentially could be annexed outright as a border march).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

That depends on whether there's still a reformarion and it still spreads as OTL. With a 15th century PoD that's certainly likely but by no means inevitable- Brandenburg staying catholic means that one of the OTL protestant electors, and eventual leader of north germany, stays catholic- who is going to fill that void, saxony? The Dutch? Denmark? Short of something wierd like a centralizing Julich->Rhineland Westphalia or an uber Bavaria Germany will lack a clear candidate for leading any possible unification. HRE and German politics become unrecognizable from the Thirty Years war on even assuming minimal divergences in Central Europe.

A Poland which is involving itself consistently in Gemran politics also has its own implications- assuming the Habsburgs still happen Hohenzollern Poland becomes an obvious ally for the French, regaining Silesia and clientizing Bohemia, Transylvania and Moravia/Slovakia were all Polish ambitions which could be fulfilled TTL (Poland-Brandenburg won't be able to annex Bohemia outright given HRE traditions, they'd have to put it under a cadet line or else renounce one of the elector titles, or else wait for the HRE to be abolished I suppose; Slovakia is another story and potentially could be annexed outright as a border march).

Hungarians may propose their crown to Frederick in 1440, like they did with Vladislaus III. Whether he would accept is open question (if Hohenzollerns have Habsburg-level luck: Frederick marries Hedwig, heiress of Poland and Lithuania, and has son(s) with her, then he marries Elizabeth of Luxembourg, heiress of Bohemia and Hungary, and has sons with her two, with two marriages he'd get 4 thrones for his dynasty).
But that would be over-wanking (not that it would be impossible, Habsburgs proved, that things like that may happen).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Something like 1454 war between Poland and TO may end with quick annihilation of Teutonic Order's state in Prussia if Brandenburg is participating on Polish side. Reinforcements from HRR for TO would not be able to get to Prussia (Brandenburg and Neumarkt were only ways available after Prussian rebels blocked ports). Although post-victory peace negotiations would be harder than achieving that victory-Emperor would place Hohenzollern under Imperial ban, Pope would threat him with excommunication.

 

[krieger]

Lithuania initially might go along as indeed they had nominally agreed to, but whether the union persists as long as it did OTL is another question. If Lithuania is overly rambunctious it may well make sense (and would be well grounded in inheritance law) to split it off under a cadet line. This could perhaps lead even to a Hohenzollern Russia-Lithuania union if say the eastern dynasty is willing to pull a Henry and convert to orthodoxy during the time of troubles.

Not, it would be not grounded in any law existing in these period. Actually, it'd be quite an opposite - Casimir's ascension was treason and was against the existing law. Because law clearly stated that Lithuania should belong to Polish crown (so, to legal entirety of Polish state) - union of Horodło and Grodno can serve as a proof. Vladislaus III of Varna even ordered Polish "pospolite ruszenie" (gathering of armed knights) to prepare themselves to rush into Lithuania, before he got that Varna idea from Cesarini. So, ITTL Frederick would me more cautious and I'd say that he wouldn't be willing to risk running for also Hungarian crown. It'd result in a direct war with almost whole HRE (not happy about unjustified success of Frederick), so I'd say that he would exchange Hungarian crown for: Imperial confirmation of his rights to overlordship over Western Pomeranian dukes, renounciation of any Hungarian claims to Red Ruthenia and Moldavia and promise of not intervening in any future conflict between him and TO on TO's behalf. It could be solidified by betrothal of Frederick's son with Jadwiga (let's call him Vladislaus for the sake of simplicity) with Anna of Austria, eldest daughter of Elizabeth of Luxembourg (bonus point - she adds blood of Casimir III to Fred's family). But the outcome regarding Lithuania should be like this - Hohenzollerns (as Vladislaus III planned) would push for Lithuania being directly incorporated to Poland. I doubt that Frederick would act for new Grand Duke to arise - according to union of Grodno the office of Grand Duke was elective by Polish and Lithuanian nobles. Frederick would send another governor (but I doubt that he'll push for 11 year-old who is his only heir) or just appoint several Lithuanian nobles (for example Olelko or Jonas Gastoutas) as captain-generals governing Lithuania (as a part of Polish crown such as Lesser Poland or Greater Poland) in his name. It should tone down the opposition. Predicting rise of "Russia-Lithuania" is worthless - we don't know if ToT (or it's expy) will ever happen ITTL and Hohenzollerns would be pushing for enacting law and further tying Lithuania closer to other parts of Polish crown. They'd need resources and men to serve their interest with Germany - Frederick's got the opportunity to solve his quarrels with Pomeranian dukes (electors of Brandenburg thought that they are entitled to sovereignity over Western Pomerania) once and for all, and he is in the position to enact his wish. It would be countered by alliance of Griffins with TO, and claims to Pomerania (both Western and Eastern) could be a cause for the new war between Poland (including Lithuania) and Brandenburg on the one side, and TO and Pomerania on the other.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Not, it would be not grounded in any law existing in these period. Actually, it'd be quite an opposite - Casimir's ascension was treason and was against the existing law. Because law clearly stated that Lithuania should belong to Polish crown (so, to legal entirety of Polish state) - union of Horodło and Grodno can serve as a proof. Vladislaus III of Varna even ordered Polish "pospolite ruszenie" (gathering of armed knights) to prepare themselves to rush into Lithuania, before he got that Varna idea from Cesarini. So, ITTL Frederick would me more cautious and I'd say that he wouldn't be willing to risk running for also Hungarian crown. It'd result in a direct war with almost whole HRE (not happy about unjustified success of Frederick), so I'd say that he would exchange Hungarian crown for: Imperial confirmation of his rights to overlordship over Western Pomeranian dukes, renounciation of any Hungarian claims to Red Ruthenia and Moldavia and promise of not intervening in any future conflict between him and TO on TO's behalf. It could be solidified by betrothal of Frederick's son with Jadwiga (let's call him Vladislaus for the sake of simplicity) with Anna of Austria, eldest daughter of Elizabeth of Luxembourg (bonus point - she adds blood of Casimir III to Fred's family). But the outcome regarding Lithuania should be like this - Hohenzollerns (as Vladislaus III planned) would push for Lithuania being directly incorporated to Poland. I doubt that Frederick would act for new Grand Duke to arise - according to union of Grodno the office of Grand Duke was elective by Polish and Lithuanian nobles. Frederick would send another governor (but I doubt that he'll push for 11 year-old who is his only heir) or just appoint several Lithuanian nobles (for example Olelko or Jonas Gastoutas) as captain-generals governing Lithuania (as a part of Polish crown such as Lesser Poland or Greater Poland) in his name. It should tone down the opposition. Predicting rise of "Russia-Lithuania" is worthless - we don't know if ToT (or it's expy) will ever happen ITTL and Hohenzollerns would be pushing for enacting law and further tying Lithuania closer to other parts of Polish crown. They'd need resources and men to serve their interest with Germany - Frederick's got the opportunity to solve his quarrels with Pomeranian dukes (electors of Brandenburg thought that they are entitled to sovereignity over Western Pomerania) once and for all, and he is in the position to enact his wish. It would be countered by alliance of Griffins with TO, and claims to Pomerania (both Western and Eastern) could be a cause for the new war between Poland (including Lithuania) and Brandenburg on the one side, and TO and Pomerania on the other.

Obviously Polish kings, being hereditary rulers of Poland, would not have interest in keeping Lithuania as separate from Poland as possible,but Lithuanians are not in such dire straits in 1440s like they were in 1560s and would easilu not agree for incorporation of Lithuania to the Crown

 

[krieger]

Obviously Polish kings, being hereditary rulers of Poland, would not have interest in keeping Lithuania as separate from Poland as possible,but Lithuanians are not in such dire straits in 1440s like they were in 1560s and would easilu not agree for incorporation of Lithuania to the Crown

Of course not, but result of Polish-Lithuanian War shows who was in position to enforce any legal solutions. Memory of Polish-Lithuanian war will also stop Lithuanians from rebelling for some time (10-15 years approximately). Than Lithuanian rebellion (backed by Moscow/TO) will happen and ITTL it is inevitable.

 

[Steno]

Of course not, but result of Polish-Lithuanian War shows who was in position to enforce any legal solutions. Memory of Polish-Lithuanian war will also stop Lithuanians from rebelling for some time (10-15 years approximately). Than Lithuanian rebellion (backed by Moscow/TO) will happen and ITTL it is inevitable.

If this TL’s Lithuania is supported by Orthodox Russia, will we see an Eastern Orthodox Lithuania, looking East to Russia rather than OTL looking west?

 

[krieger]

If this TL’s Lithuania is supported by Orthodox Russia, will we see an Eastern Orthodox Lithuania, looking East to Russia rather than OTL looking west?

It requires assumption that Russo-Lithuanian coalition is able to beat Poland completely. This assumption is false. The most likely result of rebellion would be stalemate with Moscow gaining OTL 1494 gains and Poland directly annexing rest of a country.

 

[Steno]

It requires assumption that Russo-Lithuanian coalition is able to beat Poland completely. This assumption is false. The most likely result of rebellion would be stalemate with Moscow gaining OTL 1494 gains and Poland directly annexing rest of a country.

How would Lithuanian magnates feel about these developments? IIRC OTL they mostly leaned towards an independent Lithuania but seemed content with the status quo. And the remaining Ruthene nobles? Would they want to break with the Grand Duchy? I doubt an independent “Ukraine” is feasible so where would their loyalties lie? Poland, Russia, or somewhere else?

 

[krieger]

How would Lithuanian magnates feel about these developments? IIRC OTL they mostly leaned towards an independent Lithuania but seemed content with the status quo. And the remaining Ruthene nobles? Would they want to break with the Grand Duchy? I doubt an independent “Ukraine” is feasible so where would their loyalties lie? Poland, Russia, or somewhere else?

Lithuanian magnates would be divided. A part of them would want to continue close ties with Crown, another part would want full independence and another would seek for alliance with Moscow. The second one would be most dominant. First would be stronger than third. Remaining Ruthene nobles would differ in their opinions also. More religious ones would want to be incorporated to Moscow, while the rest would reluctantly support incorporation to Poland, because Oleśnicki in union of Grodno ensured equality between Lithuanian nobility and their Ruthenian counterparts. Ruthenian nobles wouldn't want to risk losing this status. Also, IOTL a part of them saw incorporation of Lithuania to Poland as a mean to restore stability in this land - during Svitrigaila's rule in Kiev, Kievan nobility sent a delegation to Poland, whose member issued a document which said that according to their opinion, incorporation of Kiev to Poland is only way to bring these lands to prosperity.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Some thoughts about possible fate of Teutonic Order-total anihillation of TO in Prussia, although military possible, would be problematic politically (Frederick may found himself placed under Imperial ban by Emperor and excommunicated by Pope) thus Lower Prussia (as East Prussia was called back then) may remain in TO's hands as vassal state, but, as member of German dynasty, Hohenzollern could get a deal and place younger son or other caded in position of Grand Master. Something, that would not be possible for Jagiellon.

 

[krieger]

Some thoughts about possible fate of Teutonic Order-total anihillation of TO in Prussia, although military possible, would be problematic politically (Frederick may found himself placed under Imperial ban by Emperor and excommunicated by Pope) thus Lower Prussia (as East Prussia was called back then) may remain in TO's hands as vassal state, but, as member of German dynasty, Hohenzollern could get a deal and place younger son or other caded in position of Grand Master. Something, that would not be possible for Jagiellon.

Emperor was very weak politically at that time, Albert von Habsburg and Ulrich von Wurtemberg fought against him without any negative consequences. Threat of excommunication existed also for Jagiellon.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Emperor was very weak politically at that time, Albert von Habsburg and Ulrich von Wurtemberg fought against him without any negative consequences. Threat of excommunication existed also for Jagiellon.

But existence of TO was in interest of dukes and nobles of HRE, as TO provided job for their younger sons, who otherwise would cause troubles in the country, so that one event could well serve HRE as uniting factor. Anihilating TO is not easy task.