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  1. V-J

    A future where the UK abolishes the monarchy but Canada retains it

    This scenario is very unlikely given the state of public opinion in Canada and the UK. Polling suggests senitment in Canada currently is very republican, but the whole issue has a very, very low saliency with the Canadian public at the same time. And indeed, why bother when the governor-general...
  2. V-J

    Alternate dem nominee for 1976 election

    Yeah. Carter was just doing things more or less how they're done today; start from the beginning and keep going. We forget how many people found working the primary system difficult to comprehend, or just couldn't be arsed with the full process. Though I suppose some people to this day delude...
  3. V-J

    Alternate dem nominee for 1976 election

    I mean... practically any of the OTL candidates are realistic nominees provided they actually figure out the primary system like Carter's people did, and get in early enough in Iowa/New Hampshire. Carter won simply because he was organisationally and strategically clued-in to the new system...
  4. V-J

    AHC: Ford '76, Reagan '80

    I think absolutely the inverse. A quarter of a century and seven elections is a perfectly good sample size and the fact the Democrats struggled in the popular vote in this era is a function of how many parts of the country had moved away from them and were moving away from them; they struggled...
  5. V-J

    AHC: Ford '76, Reagan '80

    Nah, it absolutely did. Between 1964-1988, there were practically no reliable Democratic states. The only state to really take that mantle is Minnesota, which voted Democratic six times. (DC voted Democratic seven times) If you extend that definition of 'reliable' a little, then you would...
  6. V-J

    AHC: Ford '76, Reagan '80

    Don't think this is much of a challenge honestly. 1976 going the other way is easy, Reagan being the nominee in 1980 is pretty much the standard expectation you'd have (Dole had two disastrously-organised primary campaigns IOTL before third time was the charm, and I don't think he'd be the sole...
  7. V-J

    George H Bush wins 1992, who do the 2 parties nominate in 1996?

    Yeah. The party was moving away from him; he was pro-immigration and opposed to attacks on affirmative action at a time when the post-cold war party was emerging and economics were becoming less relevant while social issues became a bigger factor. He of course started off as the presumed...
  8. V-J

    George H Bush wins 1992, who do the 2 parties nominate in 1996?

    Very puzzled by the long-term belief of this forum that the Bush WH, after two terms and going out on a legacy of peace and prosperity, are going to abandon the nomination field to Bush archenemy the Bobster or close friend of the right but not so much the president Dan Quayle. Nah, they're...
  9. V-J

    WI: Lyndon B. Johnson: the Republican from Texas

    Japhy wrote a cool TLIAW a few years ago which had LBJ as a Republican president - from California. https://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/tliaw-45-102-781-to-1.1028/page-2#post-178833
  10. V-J

    Japan buys Baja California in the late 80s

    Yeah, I'm not buying this for a moment unless someone can give us a completely serious source. This sounds like classic eighties/early nineties 'Japan is on course to own the world' mythologising/prognostication.
  11. V-J

    What If Jerry Brown in 76?

    Britain had a bachelor PM in the seventies, and in Heath's case, unlike Brown's, he was very much a bachelor - emphasis euphemism. Heath was also in his fifties, not his thirties. I certainly don't think the UK in the early seventies was a substantially more liberal society than either the US or...
  12. V-J

    If John Major and the Tories had stayed in power until 2002-2003, would the UK still have gotten involved in Afghanistan and Iraq?

    I think Major would be not inconsiderably surprised by the notion that he was closer to the likes of Jacques Chirac than George H. W. Bush btw.
  13. V-J

    If John Major and the Tories had stayed in power until 2002-2003, would the UK still have gotten involved in Afghanistan and Iraq?

    As other posters have said the starting point of the speculation here is massively, massively improbable, but yes, Major would very likely have done the same on both Afghanistan and Iraq. There's no doubt whatsoever on Afghanistan, Iraq is complicated a little by Major being joined at the hip...
  14. V-J

    'All In': Thatcher Hangs On

    People are free to believe what they want to believe, but in mid 1991 the country was still mired in the recession, and then when you add in Mrs T's baggage and the poll tax, it's pure faith to believe she would have essentially replicated Major's 1992 majority. Why, when you she would have...
  15. V-J

    AHC: Margaret Thatcher remembered warmly by the left-wing

    Eh, there's just as much fetishisation and projection that goes on from people with political axes to grind. Some of you are talking like 2019 and the red wall crumbling never happened. I talked to an older bloke during the snappy, and he talked to me for ages. He said he was a union type who...
  16. V-J

    What If John B. Anderson won the 1980 Republican Nomination?

    If Anderson was so mainstream Republican, then it's odd that he lost so convincingly to Reagan, someone well to his right, including repeatedly losing in the favourable turf of open primaries, (Which would certainly have benefited Anderson, potentially significantly, through cross-over votes)...
  17. V-J

    WI: Nelson Rockefeller nominated in 1964?

    I think a Nixonless 1960 (Ike picks a different VP or whatever) is Rockefeller's best shot by far, and I think it's kind of incredible people on here focus so much on the later contests to the exclusion of that.
  18. V-J

    AHC: Margaret Thatcher remembered warmly by the left-wing

    BT pre-privatisation, hmm, well, how do you fancy waiting six months to get a phone line installed?
  19. V-J

    AHC: Margaret Thatcher remembered warmly by the left-wing

    I know this is a popular view on the other place, but I think it's fairly intuitively not accurate. In Statecraft she clearly sets out a proto-hard Brexit prospectus. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2002/mar/18/uk.eu This was all the standard position at the time (Late nineties, early...
  20. V-J

    AHC: Margaret Thatcher remembered warmly by the left-wing

    You keep repeating this as a mantra, but in reality UK coal was running at an enormous deficit in terms of even domestic demand, let alone export. Even in 1983, when the Thatcher government had already closed some of the biggest and oldest loss-making plants, it was still over-producing by about...
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