France's policy in this era was to encourage proxies to fight for them. During the WoPS, they found a very willing partner in Spain, whose Queen was eager to get her sons on thrones. France promised Milan to both Spain and Savoy, leading Savoy to actively foil efforts to take Milan (fearing...
Do we still have Philip V abdicating? Is Louis I living the POD?
I do think it makes a good one. A living Louis I, with an abdicated Philip V, very likely butterflies the OTL Anglo-Spanish War of late 20s and the Austrian alliance made for the purposes of waging the war. It offers a good...
Pedro I couldn't run his own country, almost saw it disintegrate, and in the end, left before he got thrown out. He doesn't have it in him to organize the Spanish part of America, too.
There was monarchist sentiment in the Spanish sphere. The incentive to build monarchies needs to be home...
Having quickly refreshed myself on the TTL, I think we're at:
King Miguel is ruling Brazil while claiming to be the center of the Portuguese empire, but Portugal still claims that spot, having reclaimed the non Brazilian colonies. Brazil and Portugal are at an impasse, leaving a de facto...
Pedro's eldest is already OTL Maria. That eliminates a POD.
The Miguel is Joao/Carlotta's younger surviving son. Rumored to be not sired by Joao. This is a key character whose gender being flipped will have massive butterflies for Portugal. I don't know who would be first in line for...
I don't like multiple PODs. Maria being born a male gives you a different Emperor. Explore that.
Miguel (I'm presuming you mean Pedro I's brother) being a female completely changes the situation in Portugal. He's a key figure in creating the situation, including being a catalyst for Joao...
Another factor in PII psyche is his tumultuous childhood. Abandoned by his father. No family in Brazil. Forced into an active governing role barely a teenager. Then stuck in a loveless marriage. The guy's entire life was spent in service of a duty he increasingly felt alienated from.
The...
Conquest of the Desert could be achieved if given enough incentive. There was no real need, though. IF an alien space bat dropped a lot of gold nuggets across the Pampas, the Spanish would have found a way.
Natives were a menace to the frontier, and the frontier was gradually pushed back as...
A different Pedro II could certainly strengthen the Monarchy, but I caution against making him too conservative. Liberal sentiment in Brazil isn't going to be trammeled easily. A Miguel conservative absolutist probably does more harm than good.
Pedro II did a good job for decades at...
In a world where France dominates Europe, Britain will look to control the colonial sphere as much as possible. The Spanish empire is in chaos, and Britain will look to put as much as possible in their sphere of interest. Ditto for Brazil. The colonial realm is where Britain has a chance...
Maybe yes. Maybe no. The whole American Revolution, then French Revolution/aftermath, unleashed a lot of liberal ideas around the world. Joao and the transported court will lean Conservative, but the whole transfer and sudden upheaval caused tensions. The surrounding Spanish states will be...
It's a reasonable possibility, especially if Joao is not poisoned in 1825. With a stable Brazil with the navy and remnants of the army still intact, and/or rebuilt after being chased from Europe, the Cisplatine War is less likely to happen, or go much better. Maybe, with an easier...
Brazilian independence came on the heels, and a direct result, of the Nap Wars. Pedro I had a tough time ruling, and ended up leaving before he got thrown out. The Regency period was so tumultuous that Pedro II was rushed to the throne early. He stabilized things for a long time, but...
Post Nap Wars, there was a lull for quite a while in new colonial expansion. The world was busy sorting out the changed colonial world. Portugal lost Brazil. Spain lost the American mainlands. Lots of new countries to exploit, er, invest in, and send any excess population. No need to bear...
IF we posit a similar War of 1812 and outcome, the Mex-Am War depends on the paths of the US and Mexico. Alternate Presidents getting elected might alter the US policies of aggression. It's an easy war to butterfly. Mexico might emerge from the struggle in better condition, which would...