The PoD could be as early as 1894, but most of the consequences play out in the 20th century, so this forum is more appropriate:
Scenario 1: Russia avoids the Russo-Japanese War-
PoDs: a) Russia makes a deal in early 1900s recognizing Japanese primacy in Korea in exchange for Japanese recognition of Russian primacy in Manchuria. IE, Russia self-restrained in Korea.
b) Russia makes a deal after the Triple Intervention with Japan splitting Korea into spheres of influence.
c) Russia declines to intervene against Japan in 1895, and neither does anyone else, perhaps it occupies northern Manchuria.
d) Russia joins war in late 1894, on Japan's side, seizing Manchuria and Port Arthur (and maybe some of northeast Korea) for itself, while the Japanese win at sea and in Korea.
If Russia and Japan can avoid war, what does this mean for the Balkans? Will Russia support a Balkan League earlier? If the Balkans remain the same till the Young Turk revolution of 1908, what will Russia do when this opens the Bosnia question. Austria-Hungary will at least want to maintain the status quo, which Karageorgovich Serbia will increasingly covet. Austria-Hungary's not going to just roll over. Indeed, if the Young Turks still call on representatives from Bosnia, Austria-Hungary might feel compelled to still annex Bosnia even at the risk of confrontation with Russia.
Does Russia just let itself get dragged into a conflict between Serbia and Austria in the 1908-1909 timeframe? What's the end result?
Scenario 2- Russia wins the war with Japan-
a) Russia wins the 1904-1905 war through greater competence, or Japanese mistakes that lead to Russian mass outlasting Japanese finances.
b) Russia starts a war in the 1890s (possibly just making war instead of the Triple Intervention demands) and perhaps wins because of greater relative power against Japan then as opposed to later.
If Russia beats Japan what does this mean for the Balkans? Will Russia support a Balkan League earlier? If the Balkans remain the same till the Young Turk revolution of 1908, what will Russia do when this opens the Bosnia question. Austria-Hungary will at least want to maintain the status quo, which Karageorgovich Serbia will increasingly covet. Austria-Hungary's not going to just roll over. Indeed, if the Young Turks still call on representatives from Bosnia, Austria-Hungary might feel compelled to still annex Bosnia even at the risk of confrontation with Russia.
Does Russia just let itself get dragged into a conflict between Serbia and Austria in the 1908-1909 timeframe? What's the end result?
Scenario 1: Russia avoids the Russo-Japanese War-
PoDs: a) Russia makes a deal in early 1900s recognizing Japanese primacy in Korea in exchange for Japanese recognition of Russian primacy in Manchuria. IE, Russia self-restrained in Korea.
b) Russia makes a deal after the Triple Intervention with Japan splitting Korea into spheres of influence.
c) Russia declines to intervene against Japan in 1895, and neither does anyone else, perhaps it occupies northern Manchuria.
d) Russia joins war in late 1894, on Japan's side, seizing Manchuria and Port Arthur (and maybe some of northeast Korea) for itself, while the Japanese win at sea and in Korea.
If Russia and Japan can avoid war, what does this mean for the Balkans? Will Russia support a Balkan League earlier? If the Balkans remain the same till the Young Turk revolution of 1908, what will Russia do when this opens the Bosnia question. Austria-Hungary will at least want to maintain the status quo, which Karageorgovich Serbia will increasingly covet. Austria-Hungary's not going to just roll over. Indeed, if the Young Turks still call on representatives from Bosnia, Austria-Hungary might feel compelled to still annex Bosnia even at the risk of confrontation with Russia.
Does Russia just let itself get dragged into a conflict between Serbia and Austria in the 1908-1909 timeframe? What's the end result?
Scenario 2- Russia wins the war with Japan-
a) Russia wins the 1904-1905 war through greater competence, or Japanese mistakes that lead to Russian mass outlasting Japanese finances.
b) Russia starts a war in the 1890s (possibly just making war instead of the Triple Intervention demands) and perhaps wins because of greater relative power against Japan then as opposed to later.
If Russia beats Japan what does this mean for the Balkans? Will Russia support a Balkan League earlier? If the Balkans remain the same till the Young Turk revolution of 1908, what will Russia do when this opens the Bosnia question. Austria-Hungary will at least want to maintain the status quo, which Karageorgovich Serbia will increasingly covet. Austria-Hungary's not going to just roll over. Indeed, if the Young Turks still call on representatives from Bosnia, Austria-Hungary might feel compelled to still annex Bosnia even at the risk of confrontation with Russia.
Does Russia just let itself get dragged into a conflict between Serbia and Austria in the 1908-1909 timeframe? What's the end result?