I mean, Kerry may be viewed as not that interesting, but with the dotcom bubble burst in the early 2000s and all Bush Jr has to go showing for it were cut taxes on the wealthy, it's going to be an uphill battle for him to try and maintain the presidency. I think whether or not H. Clinton would beat Kerry is... difficult to say. She might run against him in the primaries, but may pull out when the Recession hits so she doesn't inherit a mess (plus also to maintain some further unity with the Democrats). That said, I do see Hillary likely winning in this timeline here, evem if the details are pretty wild.I don't see Obama running in 2008 and he likely stayed in the Senate. 08 might just be Hillary Clinton path to the White House. Then again, a lot depends on 04 and whatever Bush win a second term, or if Kerry can pull off a victory even if his Presidency isn't a sham dunk. (The man still being stiff and boring a lot like Al Gore was before.) Heck maybe Clinton pulls a fast one,and steals the primaries right out of Kerry's hands while he gets burned by the Great Recession. (Think back to 76 and just how close Ronald Reagan came to beating Ford's place in the election.) Even all the way back to Bill's first inauguration in 93 people saw Hillary as Presidential and a future candidate for the White House and many thought she be the first woman president.
That depends on Obama's record. While he was quite the orator, him developing more in the Senate will mean that expectations will be placed upon him regarding what he vots for and supports. He could potentially win, but he'd be a bit of a different Obama than OTL.If W pulls a victory off in 04 and is left a lame duck, the field would be pretty wild to say the least.
2012, or even 2016 would be Obama's year, but that much more guess work.
The smart and safe money would be on Hong Kong and China itself. Heck, before 2001 everyone foresaw a supposed Second Cold War between America and China. The Hainan Island incident was made out to be the second 1960 U-2 incident by the news at the time, but then came 9/11 and the War on Terror and the rest is history.
So TTL Iron Man Movie would be much more closer to the comics.
Honestly, I can see tensions between the Americans and China cooling for the sake of economic prosperity so the comics could reflect Tony working with some Chinese folk to stop the Mandarian (who isn't even Chinese, but Anglo-Mongolian technically.)