WI no dreadnought race between Britain and Germany?

[Tonrich]

There are a TON of butterflies in this but it's an very interesting thought. Here's what I see potentially happening;

• Germany focuses on developing it's colonies. This includes economic as well as militarily. The two main points for the homeland in this is to exploit/explore natural resources and develop the economic ability of the region to fully exploit those resources. In the meantime the military bases (Naval and Army) are expanded and modified with huge capacity for storage so that if these bases were to be cut off they could be self-sustaining for long periods of time.
• This creates a dilemma for the UK as Germany is not challenging them outright in the Naval Arms race, but they are looking to expand the industrial reach throughout the globe. This may or may not be an issue for the UK depending on how Germany deals with the colonial 'rubs' that will most likely happen with British colonies. However there are very few spots which should cause 'border' type issues with the UK.
• If there isn't the split between Germany and the UK I see the relationship between France and Russia becoming stronger. If that happens I see the UK becoming increasingly hostile towards France and Russia. These two have numerous flash points rubbing up against UK colonies and strategic points on the map.
• The interesting one is how the US develops in this environment. I don't see a 'natural' side they would gravitate too. If the UK and Germany become more strategically aligned I think it crimps the US industrial growth. There won't be as much demand for US products globally and the governments of the US and the UK don't become as close. that will have long term repercussions.

 

[Aghasverov]

You'd probably need a competent doctor overseeing his birth for that to happen. Having a withered and useless arm would rule out him serving in the Navy, times had changed since Trafalgar.

Also didn't help that the doctor who delivered Willy was British... he never quite forgave 'em for that

 

[Riain]

These threads come up time and time again, and everybody bangs on about how the HSF is doomed without giving a second thought about what could have been achieved.

The fact of the matter is that the German Navy was very well equipped and capable of great things but so poorly commanded that it achieved very little.

This rot starts at the Kaiser's Military Cabinet, for not recognising the need and opportunity to break out of Germany's naval geographical constraints and make a concerted effort to reach the Channel Ports during the advance into Belgium and France in 1914. As it was the afterthought capture of the tiny ports of Ostend and Zeebrugge provided bases that accounted for 23% of uboat sinkings and for a short while 23 destroyers to oppose the Harwich Force and Dover Patrol. Imagine the potential of holding the coast down to Boulogne.

The second major shortcoming was that unlike the RN where Jackie Fisher could move ships, squadrons, flotillas to and from where they were needed Germany's 2 fleets and 3 naval stations has no overall commander to decide priorities and allocate resources. While Ostend could handle a light cruiser or coast defence battleship neither was sent; it took almost 2 years before even the first 3 fleet destroyers were sent to Flanders and another 6 months before a full flotilla was sent. The HSF commander held onto his idle assets, not wanting to diminish is command, while the stations closest to the enemy languished for want of assets.

If the Germans had captured more of the Channel coast and the KM had been commanded with competence we wouldn't being having conversations about how stupid the German were for having a navy.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

but also don't want to expand the officer corps beyond the aristocracy and the career soldierly to "politically unreliable" classes,

As far as I am aware, that was no longer an issue. It’s something that keeps getting brought up whenever an expansion of the Heer is mooted, but are there any sources to back it up? I know it’s probably a bar to, say, generalship or Army Command, but is that any different to the British Army of the day? As far as Captains, Majors and Colonels go, I don’t believe one had to be a “von” to lead a regiment or division.

 

[BooNZ]

The Russian fleet becomes quite tamer after 1905. One new battleship a year is probably enough to keep the Russians bottled in the Baltic and the French from close blockading. , Preferably the battleship is a rangy one like the British Canopus class of Pre-Dreadnoughts, that could be a deterrent to Japan or South American countries from getting pesky or just a good impressive flag shower, and a couple of light cruisers (more like British town class, than the north sea cruisers) would be an adequate minimal navy.

From memory, the Russian capital ships were often bad copies of poor French designs and were deployed in three separate directions. I concur one capital ship per year (or maybe two slightly different experimental sister ships every two years), would have sufficed for any realistic German objectives. Due to a lack of German nautical experience and the overall technical innovation of the time, anything built by the Germans before 1905 was rapidly rubbish, so one capital ship a year would also be pragmatic while Germany was initially getting its sea legs.

Mines, torpedo boats and subs can provide the general dirty background work of preventing close blockades. But once again the Germans want to make them more like British destroyers, bigger, rangier. Its more about commerce protection. The British will understand a commerce protection fleet.

Agreed. I could imagine the German colonial fleet(s) being complementary to the British equivalent rather than rival. If Britain could contemplate Germany being Britain's sword on the continent, then surely Germany could imagine the British Royal Navy being the global colonial police.

 

[BooNZ]

Did the Navy take money from the Army? The Army was kept small for political reasons until December 1912.

My understanding was the German army was less funded than it might have been because it shunned politics i.e. sought to maintain independence? Same thing?

Ummm have you seen the French and Russian naval plans of the time period, I assure you they are quite ambitious? A battleship a year won't cut it

The French have to overcome the British Royal Navy to get anywhere near Germany and poor quality Russian constructions were being divided between three separate fleets. Among neighbouring continental powers, blue water navies are not the priority.

Have relations between Britain and France take a nose dive

Around the early phases of the Anglo-German naval rivalry, Anglo-French relations were already in the basement.

Bit nebulous but I think you know where I am coming from.

Yeah, British good, German bad. Maybe if British doctors had not deformed the Kaiser or maybe if the British society of shop keepers had shown more respect for their betters, things might have worked out ok.

Jokes aside, the Kaiser was a bit of a dick, but the British and German diplomatic 'professionals' sacrificed their own national interests over personality issues and gross miscalculations respectively.

 

[raharris1973]

Jokes aside, the Kaiser was a bit of a dick, but the British and German diplomatic 'professionals' sacrificed their own national interests over personality issues and gross miscalculations respectively.

👍

 

[Nivek]

Nothing changes, the war is the same

 

[Riain]

My understanding was the German army was less funded than it might have been because it shunned politics i.e. sought to maintain independence? Same thing?

I thought the Army was limited in size because there were only a certain number of nobles to fill the higher command echelons, and such nobles were considered politically reliable in that they would support the monarchy in a revolution or whatever.

I don't know if the Heer was underfunded in any way. given the size was limited. They had the best siege train, the most heavy artillery, more NCOs, mortars, as much or even more MGs and artillery per unit than any other army and apparently he biggest training areas in western Europe. I'm not aware of any deficiency in the Heer vis a vis it's peers, other than they could have conscripted a much larger proportion of each class of men.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I thought the Army was limited in size because there were only a certain number of nobles to fill the higher command echelons, and such nobles were considered politically reliable in that they would support the monarchy in a revolution or whatever.

Do you have a source for that? I know it’s a widely held belief, but is it actually German policy?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Yeah, British good, German bad. Maybe if British doctors had not deformed the Kaiser or maybe if the British society of shop keepers had shown more respect for their betters, things might have worked out ok.

Jokes aside, the Kaiser was a bit of a dick, but the British and German diplomatic 'professionals' sacrificed their own national interests over personality issues and gross miscalculations respectively.

I blame the Daily Mail for everything

 

[oberdada]

I blame the Daily Mail for everything

If it wasn't for the fact that we traditionally Blame someone else here on AH.com, I would agree

 

[Aghasverov]

As far as I am aware, that was no longer an issue. It’s something that keeps getting brought up whenever an expansion of the Heer is mooted, but are there any sources to back it up? I know it’s probably a bar to, say, generalship or Army Command, but is that any different to the British Army of the day? As far as Captains, Majors and Colonels go, I don’t believe one had to be a “von” to lead a regiment or division.

Max Hoffman's a good example of that... no "von" in his name, but became quite influential on just about every aspect of the Eastern Theatre (including the Brest-Litovsk treaties) and the "Ober Ost" administration...

 

[Cryhavoc101]

If it wasn't for the fact that we traditionally Blame someone else here on AH.com, I would agree

I retain my hatred and scorn for the daily hate and daily moral panic (daily express) outside of Alt Hist.com

Actually pretty much all rags to be fair.....

 

[Riain]

Do you have a source for that? I know it’s a widely held belief, but is it actually German policy?

Unfortunately no, but I didn't pick it up here but when I was at University years ago.

 

[Nivek]

Do you have a source for that? I know it’s a widely held belief, but is it actually German policy?

A lot of german member comment it too, so the source may be in german, there might be guessing and other idea, because comparatively speaking,germany could have afforded a bigger army(and officer corps come with it) but seems the germans nobles wanted to keep the army as a noble club as long they could

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

I retain my hatred and scorn for the daily hate and daily moral panic (daily express) outside of Alt Hist.com

Actually pretty much all rags to be fair.....

I can't imagine any of today's press running a campaign in favour of defence spending along the lines of "We want eight and we won't wait", though given the state of the RN perhaps they should.

 

[NoMommsen]

I thought the Army was limited in size because there were only a certain number of nobles to fill the higher command echelons, and such nobles were considered politically reliable in that they would support the monarchy in a revolution or whatever.

Do you have a source for that? I know it’s a widely held belief, but is it actually German policy?

Well ... there isn't any "true" source esp. of citation, that could be used for ... if taken as a whole and not 'cut-to-fit' alleged oh-so-baad prussian-german militarism propaganda.

What acually was a theme since the tenure of the prussian war minister Verdy du Vernois - sacked by Kaiser Bill rather quickly (war minister from April 1889 to October 1890 only) as being too competent a leader aside him - was the question of education and training of officers, also as du Vernois was propagating an increase of the peacetime army by more thorough execution of conscrtiption and reducing the time of service from3 to 2 years. What at that time wwas heavily opposed by Bismarck (we are saturated) as well as some higher up brass who questioned how enough pre-educated ensigns fro officer-training might be available.
The position of du Vernois was kept by his successor in office Hans von Kaltenborn-Stachau (October 1890 to October 1893) who managed to get the Reichstag to agree to a modest increase in peacetime strenght and reducing the service time of soldiers. But the rather impartial implementation of conscription ... would remain an unsolved aka only very partiallly implementetd problem to hount the german military until the beginning of WW 1.
Of the following war ministers only Heinrich von Goßler (August 1896 to 1903) - a creature created by Kaiser Bills Ego in his submissiveness to his supreme warlord longstanding in his post despite (or because of ?) his inefficiency to achieve anything - argued faithfully together with other yes-saying gerontocrats within the military that only descendants of noble families could be rendered proper pre-officer material.

I know that Josias von Heeringen was confronted with such questions during his fight for yet another increase of the army (army laws-"Heeresvorlagen" 1912 and 1913) with not having enough officers. He as well as his successor Falkenhayn both 'only' argued that the complement of higher educated pupils was - statistically - higher within the nobility. But both were open to non-noble officers as long as they brought proper preeducation (higher school teaching, numerus clausus).
However the resistances that really counted against further increases of the armed forces were in every case either the Reichstag or the Prussian diet for financial reasons. ... or other political meddlings. ... or other contenders for the money (Tirpitz).

But at that times the arguement that only nobles were able to become officers was well off the table even with Kaiser Bill who simply and happily made numerous officers of burguois descendancy into nobles.

(sources : several biographies of v.d.Goltz, Moltke (the elder as well as the Minor), Falkenhayn, several books of german and prussian military history, of prussian history as well as numerous articvles read and found within the www. all of this simply too much timeconsuming for me to list here)

 

[Riain]

But at that times the arguement that only nobles were able to become officers was well off the table even with Kaiser Bill who simply and happily made numerous officers of burguois descendancy into nobles.

As I understand it there were plenty of bourgeois line officers, those who would do their 25 years and become Majors and Lt Colonels and then retire, maybe 2/3-3/4. However beyond those ranks and in the General Staff the bourgois thinned out while the nobles got promoted.

 

[MUC]

France is probably screwed in a TL like this, right? Many of those resources going into the Army...