WI no dreadnought race between Britain and Germany?

[Aghasverov]

Even a Germany with no colonies at all would still be a major importer/exporter. She needs a fleet to counterbalance a French and/or Russian blockade.

Yeah, but not that much of one. The French Navy prior to WWI seemed to get consistently short shrift in military funding, and would've had trouble enforcing any blockade, though they may do well at commerce raiding. The Russian Navy could be kept bottled up in the Eastern Baltic. The only nation that they could attempt to enforce a blockade on imports from is Sweden, and I don't think that would go that well.

 

[Catspoke]

I pretty much agree with everything you've written, but IMHO the "risk theory" is and was horseshit.

Risk means a threat and a threat will illicit a response. Barring a complete British capitulation - which was never going to happen - Britain was always going to respond somehow. That may have been to finance a continental proxy to challenge the threat, build an Alliance to balance the Alliance of the aggressor, ramp up their own military capacity or utilise the Empire to divert the threat's attention around the globe.

As it was, Britain chose all the routes available to them.

Maybe Germany with a moderate size navy gets to be part of a "continental proxy" against some threat, and gets stuff for that, with no navy to help, Britain is disinterested.
(something like a super power 1924 no WW1 Russia time line, where Germany+Russia navy could be a threat, so Britain agrees to split the Portuguese colonies to keep Germany friendly, doesn't cost Britain much, a cheap const to build an alliance system against a super power Russia, but makes Britain consider Germany more)

OR

A no Spanish american war + No world war 1 time line. Sometime about 1920 Japan wants to take the Northern Philippines. Seeks German help with an offer of Mindanao. The thought of a combined German+Japan Pacific naval threat is enough to make the USA back down.

Even if its a bit of fantasy. I think Tirpitz really believed that these kind of thing could happen.

(OR perhaps the German army is enough of an alliance "helper" in such situations, and that is all she needs for such diplomatic power plays, probably would be in any "Russia situation)

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I just think IF Germany wants a Navy (prestige, Great Power pissing contest shit, employment, a truly federal organisation in a Prussian-dominated Empire) for whatever reason, having a Navy so large it detracts manpower and funding from an Army that could have done with at least two more Corps and pisses off Britain was a mistake.

 

[King Augeas]

I pretty much agree with everything you've written, but IMHO the "risk theory" is and was horseshit.

Risk means a threat and a threat will illicit a response. Barring a complete British capitulation - which was never going to happen - Britain was always going to respond somehow. That may have been to finance a continental proxy to challenge the threat, build an Alliance to balance the Alliance of the aggressor, ramp up their own military capacity or utilise the Empire to divert the threat's attention around the globe.

As it was, Britain chose all the routes available to them.

Yep. Previously, it was only France worried by the rising power of Germany. Now Britain is worried about Germany too - at least in terms of the potential for a continental alliance against her should France or Russia attempt rapprochment with Germany.

Risk theory produced a Britain and a France both more worried about Germany than about each other. What happened next was entirely unsurprising.

 

[Riain]

I just think IF Germany wants a Navy (prestige, Great Power pissing contest shit, employment, a truly federal organisation in a Prussian-dominated Empire) for whatever reason, having a Navy so large it detracts manpower and funding from an Army that could have done with at least two more Corps and pisses off Britain was a mistake.

Did the Navy take money from the Army? The Army was kept small for political reasons until December 1912.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Did the Navy take money from the Army? The Army was kept small for political reasons until December 1912.

I didn’t mean a specific sum of money in particular. More of an in general kind of remark. Any money spent on the Navy will take money from the Army even if we only look at 1912 onwards. There’s only so much money available to the German government and if so many million marks are being spent on battleships there are so many million less marks available for artillery and fortifications or whatever.

 

[BooNZ]

Fundamentally speaking the Germans will still need a decent Battlefleet to counter the French and Russian navies and the UK still needs the mightiest fleet on the planet to secure communication lines with her empire. The size of the Fleets of the two nations will probably be smaller though and probably more balanced than they ended up being

Not really. The Germans need a fleet to keep the Russian Baltic fleet (one of three) in the box and/or deter a British close blockade. The German colonies were mostly rubbish, so a few light cruisers to fly the flag and maybe a couple of more impressive specimens (armoured cruisers or similar) for prestige purposes would be fit for purpose.

The issue is that a German fleet powerful enough to carry out the tasking German leaders believe they need (protect German maritime SLOCs against the British) is also big enough, in concert with the German Army, to be an existential threat to Britain. This is because any German Fleet that can gain control of the North Sea against the Home Fleet for a period of time can deliver the best Army in the world onto British soil, pretty much immediately winning any war.

The was never a realistic expectation from either the British or the Germans for the HSF to potentially gain control of the North sea or protect German maritime SLOCs against the British.

Even a Germany with no colonies at all would still be a major importer/exporter. She needs a fleet to counterbalance a French and/or Russian blockade.

A Russian blockade? How does Russia pull off that party trick? Meanwhile the French lack the navy to execute a close blockade and lack the diplomatic clout to execute a distant/illegal blockade.

Given the pre-1900 attitudes of both Westminster (or the City and Whitehall) and Berlin an alliance was almost ASB.

Curiously, the biggest diplomatic miscalculation from the Germans was to believe an Anglo-German accommodation was inevitable. Germany does not need an alliance, it simply needs to be on good enough terms it does not accidentally press British buttons. Some mistake Grey's fumbles with the French in the shadows as some form of British commitment or even alliance.

 

[Catspoke]

Not really. The Germans need a fleet to keep the Russian Baltic fleet (one of three) in the box and/or deter a British close blockade. The German colonies were mostly rubbish, so a few light cruisers to fly the flag and maybe a couple of more impressive specimens (armoured cruisers or similar) for prestige purposes would be fit for purpose.

A Russian blockade? How does Russia pull off that party trick? Meanwhile the French lack the navy to execute a close blockade and lack the diplomatic clout to execute a distant/illegal blockade.

The Russian fleet becomes quite tamer after 1905. One new battleship a year is probably enough to keep the Russians bottled in the Baltic and the French from close blockading. , Preferably the battleship is a rangy one like the British Canopus class of Pre-Dreadnoughts, that could be a deterrent to Japan or South American countries from getting pesky or just a good impressive flag shower, and a couple of light cruisers (more like British town class, than the north sea cruisers) would be an adequate minimal navy.

Mines, torpedo boats and subs can provide the general dirty background work of preventing close blockades. But once again the Germans want to make them more like British destroyers, bigger, rangier. Its more about commerce protection. The British will understand a commerce protection fleet.

 

[Captain Seafort]

The British will understand a commerce protection fleet.

The difference between a commerce protection fleet and a commerce destruction fleet is the mood its owner is in at that precise moment. The Royal Navy understands that better than anyone.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

The difference between a commerce protection fleet and a commerce destruction fleet is the mood its owner is in at that precise moment. The Royal Navy understands that better than anyone.

However it's the size of the fleet that would concern Britain, small numbers of patrol vessels are at most an annoyance if Germany ever went to war with Britain and can easily be dealt with. If the numbers were ever large enough to be a potential threat then relations between the two countries would deteriorate to otl levels.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

The Russian fleet becomes quite tamer after 1905. One new battleship a year is probably enough to keep the Russians bottled in the Baltic and the French from close blockading. , Preferably the battleship is a rangy one like the British Canopus class of Pre-Dreadnoughts, that could be a deterrent to Japan or South American countries from getting pesky or just a good impressive flag shower, and a couple of light cruisers (more like British town class, than the north sea cruisers) would be an adequate minimal navy.

Mines, torpedo boats and subs can provide the general dirty background work of preventing close blockades. But once again the Germans want to make them more like British destroyers, bigger, rangier. Its more about commerce protection. The British will understand a commerce protection fleet.

Ummm have you seen the French and Russian naval plans of the time period, I assure you they are quite ambitious? A battleship a year won't cut it

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

Ummm have you seen the French and Russian naval plans of the time period, I assure you they are quite ambitious? A battleship a year won't cut it when

Have you see what the French and Russian navies actually managed to build in the time period? It's not exactly impressive and couldn't all be brought against Germany.

 

[Catspoke]

Ummm have you seen the French and Russian naval plans of the time period, I assure you they are quite ambitious? A battleship a year won't cut it when

This is assuming the goal is to prevent a close blockade of German ports, block the Danish Belts. If Britain is neutral and no close blockade, British shipping could be used to bring in stuff.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Have you see what the French and Russian navies actually managed to build in the time period? It's not exactly impressive and couldn't all be brought against Germany.

Well there was a small incident in Bosnia that interfered with their construction plans.

 

[Catspoke]

The difference between a commerce protection fleet and a commerce destruction fleet is the mood its owner is in at that precise moment. The Royal Navy understands that better than anyone.

The OTL Germany Navy was a pretty crappy trade protection force. Short ranged, heavily armored. Designed for fleet combat. If the Germans just copied British types with the same numbers as OTL, I would think it would be less scary to the British. (I agree that such a navy could be turned into a commerce raiding force, a better one at that than OTL)

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Have relations between Britain and France take a nose dive

Perhaps have the 1870 affair between 'Germany' and France end differently with France remaining the pre-eminent power in Europe - at least for longer with an arms race having taken place into the 1880s and 90s between the UK and France

Another POD is the Kaiser (Willie II) joins the RN in his youth at 14 instead of the German Army at 21, moving to the fledgling Imperial Navy in the 1880's as it expands and as a result is more Anglicised (and has greater contact with his British Relatives) - this conversely makes him more readily acceptable of the British Liberalism that his mother tried to impose which OTL he rejected instead embracing a more hyper-masculine Prussian outlook which certainly coloured his thinking.

Being more pro-British and less authoritarian upon becoming Emperor he retains a better relationship with Bismarck (having been kept from Bismarck earlier machinations) and they do not fall out .

Basically 'Willie' has the 'little shit' knocked out of him as a Midshipman and this results in him being a better human being when he reaches manhood.

The result being that Germany follows a more reasoned 'Bismarck like' foreign policy rather than the expansionist race for the Sun Policy that he instead followed and indeed like his Father and Grand father is content to leave the day to day running of the nation to Bismarck and his successors.

Bit nebulous but I think you know where I am coming from.

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

You'd probably need a competent doctor overseeing his birth for that to happen. Having a withered and useless arm would rule out him serving in the Navy, times had changed since Trafalgar.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

You'd probably need a competent doctor overseeing his birth for that to happen. Having a withered and useless arm would rule out him serving in the Navy, times had changed since Trafalgar.

Nanny Vicky liked him - might get a pass?

 

[raharris1973]

The thing is that Bismarck had done a great job in isolating France. Fashoda was not conducive to warm feelings in UK either.

Germany and UK were working very well together - also because it was all family

And then the Kaizer got into it. That it where the problem comes in.

IF Germany had continued its policy of no interest in colonies and therefore no interest in a strong navy, France would still have been isolated. Germany would not have been a threat. France was viewed as the main threat to UK's interest, not Germany. The navy and the kaizer's buffonry changed it.

So, no navy = Kaizer not being Kaizer

What new colonial grab post Fashoda 1898 really pissed off Britain so much?

First of all, most German colonial gains were in the 1880s, under Bismarck.

Tsingtao happened in 1897 - Britain didn't seem to mind.

Fashoda happened in 1898

Germany then bought a bunch of Spanish Pacific islands in 1899 and arranged in horse trading a claim in the Solomons for a British claim in Samoa.

Britain didn't seem too steamed after this, and was comfy enough afterward to work with Germany against the Boxers and then the Venezuelans.

 

[raharris1973]

I didn’t mean a specific sum of money in particular. More of an in general kind of remark. Any money spent on the Navy will take money from the Army even if we only look at 1912 onwards. There’s only so much money available to the German government and if so many million marks are being spent on battleships there are so many million less marks available for artillery and fortifications or whatever.

If the Germans want to spend a third less on their navy like Catspoke said and commit it to the Army, but also don't want to expand the officer corps beyond the aristocracy and the career soldierly to "politically unreliable" classes, what land armament and equipment and activity can they invest in for maximum increase in combat power of their land forces? Mega-artillery, training at lavish scale, continually pushing availability of crew-served weapons down to lower echelons? Fortifications, Pre-fab mobile fortifications?