What could be some short- and long-term scenarios for South-Britain following a Danish victory at the battle of Edington?
How big a victory?
How big a victory would be realistic? Could it be the end of the kingdom of Wessex?
So killing Alfred doesn't stop the uprising though it deprives them of the deeper strategic thinking.
Yeap.The succession in Wessex in such a scenario would presumably be messy though- Edward the Elder and his cousins Ethelhelm and Ethelwold are all kids at this point.
Playing devil's advocate here.
One thing about Guthrum is he seems to have had some incredibly bad luck. For example having a large part of his forces ships wrecked in a storm, and one other defeat of reinforcements before they could link up that, on paper, seemed improbable.
The Christmas raid seemed well planned, and Alfred escaped by the skin of his teeth and remained an alternate source of authority.
So if the PoD is more reinforcements linking up, and most of the Saxon nobles dead and the children captured, things aren't necissarilly prryhic. Keep in mind that many who in otl settled Normandy, Iceland, and other places would come to reinforce Guthrum if they thought there was a farm and thralls for them in a much more secure England rather than otl England were the conquests of years prior are being steadily reversed by a resurgent Wessex. Even if not fully pacified, it might look like a better bet than Normandy or Ireland to a rank and file Viking raider.
Sven let's go fight for Wessex for the glory of Guthrim instead of taking land and slaves in Northumbria!Playing devil's advocate here.
One thing about Guthrum is he seems to have had some incredibly bad luck. For example having a large part of his forces ships wrecked in a storm, and one other defeat of reinforcements before they could link up that, on paper, seemed improbable.
The Christmas raid seemed well planned, and Alfred escaped by the skin of his teeth and remained an alternate source of authority.
So if the PoD is more reinforcements linking up, and most of the Saxon nobles dead and the children captured, things aren't necissarilly prryhic. Keep in mind that many who in otl settled Normandy, Iceland, and other places would come to reinforce Guthrum if they thought there was a farm and thralls for them in a much more secure England rather than otl England were the conquests of years prior are being steadily reversed by a resurgent Wessex. Even if not fully pacified, it might look like a better bet than Normandy or Ireland to a rank and file Viking raider.
Sven let's go fight for Wessex for the glory of Guthrim instead of taking land and slaves in Northumbria!
But Olaf....Wessex keeps fighting back and we have friends and family already settled in Northumbria.