My example were Arab influences in Iran and central Asia which are, insignificant demographically, linguistically to between 10-20% of words, and culturally, aside from Islam Arabs were the ones who assimilated rather than the other way around. My proposal was then nowhere as radical as you may have understood it.
You see in OTL even the Mongol attempts to place their tax officials into Russia failed. The Russians just rioted, rebelled, murdered these Mongol tax collectors.
Interesting, it was my impression that while principalities in Northern and western Russia were more or less independent, the Golden Horde was quite adept at suppressing revolts. And that some eastern principalities like Muscovy paid a tribute to the Mongol hordes up until the late 15th century.
Either way, I admit my knowledge of the tartar horde is murky at best and will stand corrected in this issue.
Of course the Mongols could have massacred up to 70% of the Russian population and so 'convince' the rest of the Russians to tolerate the Mongol tax official.
I completely agree with you, such a development is impossible, in fact I have made a case in the past on why demographic replacement is both extremely unlikely in a pre-industrial setting, and unnecessary for cultural, or linguistic shifts.
OTL sultanate of Rom was very much Turkish culturally, yet there was no significant influx of Turks. There were 2 main kinds of invading “Turk” just like there were 2 main kinds of “Arab” in my first example:
Iranica said:
The Arab infiltration into Iran began before the Muslim conquests and continued as a result of the joint exertions of the civilized Arabs (ahl al-madar) as well is the desert Arabs (ahl al-wabar).
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Each of those had a particular contribution cultural dynamics; the former establish economic relationships. They also serve as magnets to attract nearby rural populations into towns, were they are again going to form increasing social relationships.
By the 11th century Turik merchants were engaged in the fur trade along the Volga (Martin 1978). The Mongols opened more long distance trade routes. In fact their capital was placed in Sarai to better take advantage of trade with Turks and Persians to the south and east. OTL these Urbanites were not enough in numbers nor sufficiently varied nor penetrated deep enough into Russia to have a significant long term cultural effect.
The latter produce political relationships, OTL we already have a substantial amount of those, Tartars were settling as far as Lithuania proper, Lipka tartars. They seem to have maintained a similar position as their equivalents in Anatolia. We also already have a substantial number of Tartars in the Pontic Steppe, most of which are Turik culturally if not demographically.
At this point Russians are more advanced and developed than the Mongols yet the same can be said of the Roman example, and of the Arabs in relation to both romans and Persians. It would not be the first instance of Pontic steppemen taking over more complex urbanized societies.
Granted the logistics of securing the Roman Empire are much simpler than those of western Russia. Then again OTL there are several terms associated with government that can be traced to the Mongol period. (Halperin 1982) (Vasary 1976) Proving that these political relationships existed at one point.
Now speaking of the Turkic Tartar settlements in Russia:
As we saw above the first thing needed is genocide of 70% of the Russian population. It is important to note that you cannot murder all the Russians as minimum 30% of the Russian population would be able to hide in the forests.
Not at all, that is not needed, we probably require no population replacement at all. In fact if we follow my original example there is likely to be less replacement between Rus and Tartars than OTL:
Iranica said:
many of the Arabs attempted to seize lands for themselves; throughout the period of the conquests the term “emigrant” (mohāǰer) was used almost synonymously with “warrior.” Caliph ʿOmar (13-23/634-44) discouraged such excesses. Even though the region was taken by conquest, the people were generally granted protected (ḏemmī) status and not enslaved; steps were taken to keep peasants on the land, and the state, rather than the soldiers, took title to as much of it as possible. To prevent the Arabs from dispersing to private estates, ʿOmar ordered them to congregate in new camp cities or “emporiums”
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OTL some tartars did usurp lands, it is not unreasonable for a more centralized/urban Tartar horde, to opt for a similar policy… An early institution of such would both facilitate tax collection, at least until the settled tartars decided their interests were closer to the Rus’s than to the Khan’s.
Iranica said:
Within a generation Kūfa reportedly had 80,000 households (with 60,000 soldiers) and Baṣra had 120,000 households (80,000 soldiers), representing total populations of perhaps, 300,000 and 500,000 respectively. Since it is almost inconceivable that so many people could have migrated from Arabia, they must have included many migrants from the Iraqi countryside.
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So we probably have some Muslim Turk settlers from further south (Rome, Persia, Central Asia, even China) making trade posts/garrisons further upstream(think of it as more Turik towns, like Meshchersk, Kazan, Astrakhan) in the Volga and the Don. Then nearby rural Russians, and Tartars settle there for economic reasons and take to some of the customs of the Muslims, with a large minority converting to Islam.
These can also serve as a magnet for the Turkish and Arab merchants mentioned before, an emporium further north and closer to the fur’s origin would receive more support from the Mongols early on, and could snowball in to the place of OTL’s Moscow, similar to how Bagdad replaced Ctesiphon…
A more settled and centralized Tartar population, would mean less frontier raiding, OTL the main source of animosity between Russians and Tartars.
Now the next step is to convince your non-Nomad Turkic population to settle in Russia:
- "We invite you to settle in depopulated Russia where you freeze your balls off in winter, and where the forests are full of wild mad Russians eager to cut your throat!"
Doesn't sound too promising to me.
I agree that this is the hard part.
The Tartar horde is mostly made up of Cumans and other tribes lacking in a urban tradition unlike both the Seljuks and the Arabs, who while nomadic were aware and in contact with centralized urban realms. A different more worldly Mongol leadership is still not so far-fetched as to be ASB.
A possible POV could be a different partition of the Mongol empire, that way there would be a more significant cultural exchange between urbanized parts of the Mongol empire Like Iran and Khwarizmi.
In OTL Anatolia one of the factors most important to the culture shift was the arrival or craftsmen and traders from the Seljuk Empire early on. A Mongol horde that converts to Islam Earlier would invite a similar process.
And one more thing - in OTL Russia as part of the Golden Horde was able to protect itself against the Western enemies (Lithuania, Sweden etc.) with some insignificant help from the Mongols.
In this ATL (where the Russians are mostly massacred) the Golden Horde would have to protect it's "Tartar Turkic" settlements against the West by itself. Which is difficult, as the main fighting force of the Golden Horde is their nomadic population which is in the steppes; and the Horde did not have garrison troops to speak of.
Then again the Steppes go as far as Poland…
IOTL the border with the Tartar Khanates served a very important function in the formation of Russian identity and unification during the early modern period. With a greater integration between the tartar horde and Russian kingdoms, things will go different.
Yet it seems that previous to the ousting of the Mongols, the main engine for centralization in Muscovy was competition with Lithuania and Novgorod. And the changes I suggest will cause more centralization during the late Middle Ages.
Russia is still going to have interests opposed to the Sultanate of Rom. With what OTL was the Crimean Khanate firmly under their control, thing will be even more one sided in the south.
Vasary
https://app.box.com/s/kvvzr5z1o7stqtbmcdueej8ho6xzv6vr
Iranica article
http://www.iranicaonline.org/articles/arab-iii
Martin
https://app.box.com/s/ipxjvbgfgyxjewgjjjf88ewp7umdcnb6
Halperin
https://app.box.com/s/nsozprdnglmu5jznmp9447radhacjclx