Kerensky's Russia

Kerensky was the second Prime-Minister of the short lived Russian Provisional Government.

Although the Provisional Government was succesfull into organizing the elections, they were unable to end Russia's involvement in World War I, weakening it's popularity among the Russian citizens.

The result: Vladimir Lenin seized power.

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Tsardom in Russia ended when Nicholas II resigned in March 1917 and when Michail Alexandrovich refused the Crown.

The Duma sets up an Provisional Government with Prince Lvov as it's Chairman and Kerensky as it's Minister for Warfare and Justice.

The POD is that Kerensky judges the Bolshevik threat more seriously and manages to convince Lvov of the possible dangers that a Bolshevik uprising would bring too democratic powers.
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How can we keep Kerensky in power and prevent a Bolshevik rise to power?
What would be the consequences?

IIRC Lenins coup was a risky operation and some determined armed men could have stopped it.

The problem was everybody wanted an end to the war but Kerensky wanted the war to make gains at the end.
You really need to have him end the war and that gets rid of Lenin's main support - his claim that he would end the war.
This is a really interesting idea though and would love to see more, im studying this period in my A-level classes at the minute

Have Kerensky turn Russia's fortunes around in WW1 or have Lenin captured and shot, Trotsky captured and Stalin too. With the Bolshevik leadership decapitated, preventing the revolution should be possible.

Its all about Kornilov. Make it so that he doesn't try and stage a coup. Kerensky never frees the Bolshevik leaders from prison, never gives them guns in order to defend the city. The revolution is never led by the Bolsheviks, Kerensky continues to rise.

- During his exile in Siberia, Stalin contracts TB. He never fully recovers and dies in 1912.

- After the failure of the July Revolution, Lenin flees to Finland where he get's assasinated by a Tsar loyalist. ( Is this ASB? )

- Trotsky was arrested and banned to Siberia in 1905, right? Let's just say he tried to organize a rebellion in the camp, but was shot by the guards. ( probably ASB )

I think that only Stalin's death is realistic, if you have any nbetter ideas, please post them.

MrHola

Darkest has the key point problem in terms of the Bolsheviks. They were a very small group and most of them were aware of this and willing to work democratically for the moment until Lenin arrived and started insisting on an early coup. Prevent Kornilov's coup, attempt and they would probably be ignored. Or prevent Lenin reaching Russia, or have him die in some incident.

To make the republic secure you will need an early peace. Whether a separate one or a slightly better allied waging of the war so that they take pressure off Russia, which is able to limp on to the end and be one of the victors. [Not necessarily Nov 18 as it could be earlier with Germany still facing war in the east as well as the west].

Steve

Right, Im still busy in collecting data in order to create a timeline starting in 1905 and ending in 1950 about a Kerensky Russia.

Now, the Communist elements, ( Trotsky, Lenin, Stalin ) have to go. Either killed or captured somewhere in 1917.
Perhaps Kerensky managed to make a truce with the German Empire, ending the war for Russia.

I have no idea what will happen next. I mean Russia was hit pretty hard by the War, would Kerensky manage to succesfully lead Russia into the 1920s? What about the Great Depression? Or Word War II? If the Kerensky-Offensive was succesfull, would Russia be invited wiith the other Allied Powers in Versaille? What terrotorial gains would Russia get?

1905: Bloody Sunday. Unarmed peaceful demonstrators were marching to the Winter Palace in order to present a petition to the Tsar. The Imperial Guard opened fire on the demonstrators. Among the casualties is Leon Trotsky.

1913: Joseph Stalin is exiled for life to Northern Siberia. He dies three years of later of TB.

1917: The Duma appoints a Provisional
Government

March 1st, 1917: Tsar Nicholas II abdicts, leaving the Provisional Government in charge of the country.

July 1st, 1917: Beginning of the July Offensive. In this ATL, the July Offensive was a huge succes, improving morale and strenthening the Provisional Government.

July 19th, 1917: Alexander Kerensky orders the arrest of Lenin and other prominent Bolsheviks. In OTL, a spy manages to warn Lenin of the coming danger, Lenin then fled to Finland. In this ATL, this doesn’t happen and Lenin is arrested and Kshesinsky Palace get’s occupied by government troops.

July 24th, 1917: When Lenin and other Bolsheviks tried to organize a rebellion against the Provisional Government from their prison, Kerensky orders their execution.

Is this good enough? Or is this ASB?
If it's good, what would be the consequences?

It needs more fleshing out but i think the basic detail is there and good

Possible consequences of a non-Communist Russia:
- No Army purges.
- Quicker ending to World War II (?)
- Russia will be harder hit by the Depression.
- No Communist uprising in the Third World nations.
- No People's Republic of China and no Communist North Korea.
- When it comes to technology, it will be abit more primitive then in OTL. No weapons and space race...

Another thing, would Kerensky grant independance to Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltics?

MrHola said:

Another thing, would Kerensky grant independance to Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltics?

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Can't see him granting independance; Kerensky was the man who had the flag lowerd and raised as he left the winter palace where he lived - like a Tsar.
While he might mellow a bit and relise this could antagonise the populas i can't see him voluntarily letting bits of the Empire go.

Well, after the war, the Empire was a mess. This weakened state of the once great Russian Empire uncovered many nationalist feeling in Poland and the Ukraine and the Baltics.

Perhaps Kerensky would realise that Russia was simply exhausted of the war and lacked that time, money or disciplin to 'pacify' those regions and he grudgingly decides to grant them independance.

Is this possible?

BTW, would Kerensky restore the monarchy? I mean he was rather critical of the Tsar's in his earlier years, or would he create a Republic?

MrHola said:

- Russia will be harder hit by the Depression.

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True but only really because it is part of the world economy in TTL. It will avoid prolonged civil war then communism so will be much better overall. However the possible effects of a worldwide depression could well trigger some dramatic impacts.

Not sure the depression would still occur. With a Russia part of the world economy and state system you have markedly greater stability. Might get a milder peace against Germany and some settlement of WWI debts so the world economy is nothing like as fragile.

- When it comes to technology, it will be abit more primitive then in OTL. No weapons and space race...

Click to expand...

That presumes that the world is more peaceful without communism and the cold war. The former may still appear somewhere else, possibly even in a defeated and de-militised Germany? Also I would expect there will still be areas of conflict and tension. In fact, without the straight-jacket of Communism Russia could be a lot more productive. Furthermore remove the USSR and you could butterfly the Nazis. Would be a drastically different world.

Another thing, would Kerensky grant independence to Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltics?

Click to expand...

He might have problems, given the weakness of the Russian state, in seeking to hold them down. It would also be politically awkward given the political capital made of the replacement of the Czar by a democratic system. Might see a federal system established. [Actually, given its importance I would be surprised to see the Ukraine independent at this time. However the reforming of an independent Poland is highly likely once Germany is finally defeated. The Balts might also gain their independence.

Steve

Bright day
With Russia still an ally of France, it and Britain would not need new states in Central Europe. There will be less support for various emigres working aganist A-H. Without this overt supportntional leaders on the ground may have more conciliatory attitude, though there will be lot of anger and mistruast still; plus who knows what Wilson will do.

Poland- Pilsudski? Not really, he will be german stooge for Entente. Who else? Is there anybody?

Hungary- won't go red without Soviet Union, but it is even likely to be treated better from beginning, seeing as France does not need to empower its minor allies.

Is there going to be an offesive by Germany? If not, the Americans troops may experience more combat with more casualties- or not, as Germany could ask for conditional surrender.

If the July Offensive was succesfull, kicking the Austrians out of the war, would Kerensky Russia be invited in Versaille? What terrortorial demands would they state?

What about Yugoslavia?
Yugoslavia was founded after World War I. Would it collapse alot quicker without Communism?

Basic Draft.

1905: Bloody Sunday. Father Gapon led unarmed peaceful demonstrators to the Winter Palace in order to present a petition to the Tsar. The Imperial Guard opened fire on the demonstrators. Among the casualties is Leon Trotsky.

May, 1906: The State Duma is created.

1913: Joseph Stalin is exiled for life to North Siberia. He dies three years later of TB.

July 28th, 1914: World War I. The nations of Europe declare war to each other. The Russian Empire declares war to Austria-Hungary and the German Empire.

1914-1917: TheRussian Empire enthusiasticly enters the war. Unfortunatly, the weaknesses of the economy and the corruption of the Government were only hidden for a brief moment by a cloak of nationalism.
The war went disastrously for the Empire and the people grew tired of the state of affairs...

1917: The Duma appoints a Provisional Government

March 1st, 1917: Tsar Nicholas II abdicts, leaving the Provisional Government in charge of the country. The brother of Nicholas refused the throne the next day, claiming that the Constituent Assembly should decide the form of government for Russia.

July, 1917: The Constituent Assembly declares Russia a republic.
The Monarchists protest, seeing Russia being ruled by a republican government un-acceptable.

July 1st, 1917: Beginning of the July Offensive. In this ATL, the July Offensive was a huge succes, because many of the Slavic regiments of the Astro-Hungarian Army joined their Russian brothers, improving morale and strenthening the Provisional Government.

July 19th, 1917: Alexander Kerensky orders the arrest of Lenin and other prominent Bolsheviks. In OTL, a spy manages to warn Lenin of the coming danger, Lenin then fled to Finland. In this ATL, this doesn’t happen and Lenin is arrested and Kshesinsky Palace get’s occupied by government troops.

July 24th, 1917: When Lenin and other Bolsheviks tried to organize a rebellion against the Provisional Government from their prison, Kerensky orders their execution.

June 1st, 1917: Lenin and the rest of the Soviet leaders are hanged.

1918: The Baltic States declare themsleves independant of Russia. Russia decided not to intervene, they simply lacked the money, manpower and discipline.

November, 1918: Shortly after the surrender of Germany, the Second Polish Republic is born.

November 11th, 1918: An armisitce is signed between the Allies and the Centrals. The Great War is officially over.

January 18th, 1918-January 21st, 1920: Paris Peace Conference. The Russian Republic is part of the converence.

June 28th, 1919: The League of Nations si founded. Russia becomes a member. Seeing the League as a way to increase their economy.

Well, this is just a rough draft. If anyone has some advice, please tell.

Krensky was too kind to order executions. Have him declare peace as soon as possible + no Kornilov coup. Then he has a chance.

Kornilovwas captured by the Austrians in April, 1915.
Could it be possible that he was executed by the Austrians?

When should he declare peace then?