Kerensky's Russia

Im tempted to say that instead of pushing for independence the Baltic state, Ukraine etc might push for a federation type of government (as somebody said earlier).
Otherwise they run the risk of falling under the influence of a bigger power, whereas in a federation they'll retain the aspectsof independence yet not be under complete influence from another state
 

MrHola

Banned
In OTL, the Ukraine was independant for a short time.
Unfortunatly for the Ukrainians, their country become divided between a Soviet Ukraine and the Poles and the Czechs had a piece too.
So a Ukrainian state didn't happen but since there are no Soviets in this timeline, a Ukraine is still possbile only it will be significant smaller then in OTL because te Poles and the Czechs will still claim some land.
 
In OTL, the Ukraine was independant for a short time.
Unfortunatly for the Ukrainians, their country become divided between a Soviet Ukraine and the Poles and the Czechs had a piece too.
So a Ukrainian state didn't happen but since there are no Soviets in this timeline, a Ukraine is still possbile only it will be significant smaller then in OTL because te Poles and the Czechs will still claim some land.

In OTL Russia completely collapsed and Soviets at first gave up on it. You have Russia ITTL coming out geopolitically worse than OTL...
 

MrHola

Banned
Can someone please suggest on what to do with the independance of Poland, the Baltics and the Ukraine?

I mean, when could a Union or Federation between those nations start to exist? The 1920s?
What should the administrative captiol be? Poland and the other nations probably wouldn't like it when the captiol is in a Russian city.

I already thought about a name though: The Union of Sovereign Nations.

BTW, if the Constituent Assembly declared Russia a Republic, would the monarchist stage a coupe?
 
Last edited:

MrHola

Banned
1920: Many Russian monarchs, realising the unfriendly situation to them ( nobody wants the monarchy back ), begin leaving Russia. Many of them move to France.

January, 1920: Kerensky proposes to the Ukraine, Central Asia, the Baltics, and the Caucasian countries a federation which will strenthen their nations. He promises that those countries will retain the aspect of independence.

April 11th, 1920: The Union of Sovereign Nations is born. It composes the Russian Republic, the Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaidjan, the Baltics, Central Asia. The USN promotes a free flow of goods between the member-states and co-prosperity.

1921-1929: The 1920s was a period of reasonable stability for the Russian Republic.
This, combined with the flow of American Dollars, greatly increased the wealth of Russia.
Until the great Depression, everything went smoothly.

October 29, 1929: The great depression. Russia is harder hit then in OTL because in ATL it’s part of the World Economy.

March, 1933: Hitler is the Chancellor of Germany.

1933-1939: This period goes down in history as aperiod of appeasement against Germany.

September 1st, 1939: Nazi Germany invades Poland. Britian, France and Russia declare war to Germany.

1939-1942: Because of Russia’s assistence to Poland, Poland to last a little longer then in OTL. Long enough for the French and the British to mobilize their armies and invade Germany. As a result, the war for Europe ends quicker.


Well, this is part 2, what do you think? Any advice?
 

Hendryk

Banned
In Robert Cowley's What If? 2, there's a chapter, "No Finland Station" by George Feifer, which speculates on the failure of Lenin to start the Bolshevik revolution. IIRC Feifer's position was that the way things played out in OTL was quite unlikely. Don't remember the details though.
 
Question: if Russia manages to hang on until defeat of the Central Powers, what effect would this have on Versailles? Russia has suffered terribly- would the demands made against Germany be even more stringent? What would a Russian victor ask for?
 
January, 1920: Kerensky proposes to the Ukraine, Central Asia, the Baltics, and the Caucasian countries a federation which will strenthen their nations. He promises that those countries will retain the aspect of independence.

Just who is heading independance movements in all of those countries? Or are you leaving everything to Zeitgeist? Bit iffy IMO. Why didn't they get shot by functioning army?

Central Asia... really?
 

HurganPL

Banned
Poland- Pilsudski? Not really, he will be german stooge for Entente. Who else? Is there anybody?
Dmowski from Endecja party which supported Russia at the begining of the war.The idea was to support Russia, unite all Polish territory divided by partitions, then attempt independence.
But Russia wasn't very keen on Polish independence or accepting of Polish nationality.
It could that they would choose somebody other fearing Dmowskis partiotism. But in such situation he would be pragmatic national leader, on the other hand I doubt any Pole would accept being in "federation" with Russia.

Russia surviving WW1 was done in detail in Witold Orlowski book Stulecie Chaosu-Century of Chaos.
Perhaps it will be translated in English, rather professional as he is professor of economics.
Basically its a rather autocratic corrupt system, run mostly by military and industrial cliques.
 
The easiest thing to do, in my opinion, would be to keep the Bolsheviks from becoming a power. All you’d have to do is knock Lenin out of the picture before the Germans ship him over in April 1917. The Bolsheviks were never that popular throughout the country, and many of their number within Russia (including Kamenev and Stalin) were endorsing cooperation with the Provisional Government before Lenin showed up. Without Lenin, the Party could do no more that Caesar’s arm when Caesar’s head is off.

Having Kerensky survive 1917 is a trickier matter, however. At some point, there needs to be a reckoning between the two governments that appeared in Petrograd during 1917: the Provisional Government (with Kerensky and the Duma) and the Worker’s Soviet (a grab-bag of radical parties). To simplify a complex problem, the PG had the upper/middle classes and the generals, but not much of an idea of what to do, while the Soviet had the workers, the grunts, and a plan to call for an armistice. Still, there was plenty of crossover between the two groups, and the Soviet was known for the occasional strategic blunder. It took Kornilov’s attempted putsch in early September to fatally weaken the PG and give the Soviet the legitimacy it needed to take over.

Fortunately, some work could have been done a few months earlier that could’ve removed the revolt entirely. Suppose Kerensky’s June offensive, which ended in OTL in the total dissolution of the Russian army, was instead a mild success, with the Russians being able to defeat the Austrians and hold the line from German counterattack. Kerensky did introduce disciplinary measures that were more or less mirrored by the Bolsheviks a little over a year later, so it is not completely outrageous to imagine some more cautious planning allowing them to be used to their full potential. With this notch on their belt, the PG will probably look a bit better, thus starving the Soviet of some converts. Without Lenin and his earlier directives to lower-level agitators in the Soviet, the July Insurrection would probably not occur. With any luck, this should appease the conservatives that backed Kornilov enough that they persuade him not to rebel. The PG is saved.

In the immediate future, Kerensky’s biggest problems would be absorbing the Soviet, restoring order , ending the war. The first two could be done, with any luck, with the creation of some type of reform program. Promising land reform would probably be enough to gain considerable support from the Russian countryside and the Socialist Revolutionary party, which was far and away the most popular party in Russia, while outlining some type of constitutional government would be enough to placate the Kadets in the PG. However, despite his support for the Entente, Kerensky would have to end the war soon. The Russian army simply couldn’t take much more at that point, and the number of insurrections breaking out across the empire as the imperial system collapsed back in 1917 would need immediate attention. With any luck, an armistice is negotiated with Berlin by early 1918, probably resulting in a milder version of the Brest-Litovsk treaty being applied to Russia, at least until the German war effort collapses later in the year.

While the Germans would probably collapse by the end of 1918, I doubt that the Entente itself would survive much after that. Neither London nor Paris would be terribly pleased at Kerensky’s armistice, and would doubtless use it to marginalize Russia’s role in the post-war order. Kerensky, for his part, would probably be quite put out to discover that the Entente powers never had any intention of actually giving Russia control over bits of the Balkans or Istanbul. I also doubt that Wilson’s babblings on self-determination would do much to reassure Kerensky of the Entente’s good faith towards Russia.

After that, I really can’t say what would happen. Russia would eventually stabilize (well, as stable as it usually gets), but I seriously doubt Kerensky was the type of leader to step aside when his time was past. I’d expect a series of pseudo-republican autocratic governments for the next three or so decades, coupled with slower industrialization, frequent civil unrest, and growing isolation from Europe. Essentially, it would be Putin’s Russia on a gradual upswing, rather than an arrested decline.
 

MrHola

Banned
The easiest thing to do, in my opinion, would be to keep the Bolsheviks from becoming a power. All you’d have to do is knock Lenin out of the picture before the Germans ship him over in April 1917. The Bolsheviks were never that popular throughout the country, and many of their number within Russia (including Kamenev and Stalin) were endorsing cooperation with the Provisional Government before Lenin showed up. Without Lenin, the Party could do no more that Caesar’s arm when Caesar’s head is off.

Having Kerensky survive 1917 is a trickier matter, however. At some point, there needs to be a reckoning between the two governments that appeared in Petrograd during 1917: the Provisional Government (with Kerensky and the Duma) and the Worker’s Soviet (a grab-bag of radical parties). To simplify a complex problem, the PG had the upper/middle classes and the generals, but not much of an idea of what to do, while the Soviet had the workers, the grunts, and a plan to call for an armistice. Still, there was plenty of crossover between the two groups, and the Soviet was known for the occasional strategic blunder. It took Kornilov’s attempted putsch in early September to fatally weaken the PG and give the Soviet the legitimacy it needed to take over.

Fortunately, some work could have been done a few months earlier that could’ve removed the revolt entirely. Suppose Kerensky’s June offensive, which ended in OTL in the total dissolution of the Russian army, was instead a mild success, with the Russians being able to defeat the Austrians and hold the line from German counterattack. Kerensky did introduce disciplinary measures that were more or less mirrored by the Bolsheviks a little over a year later, so it is not completely outrageous to imagine some more cautious planning allowing them to be used to their full potential. With this notch on their belt, the PG will probably look a bit better, thus starving the Soviet of some converts. Without Lenin and his earlier directives to lower-level agitators in the Soviet, the July Insurrection would probably not occur. With any luck, this should appease the conservatives that backed Kornilov enough that they persuade him not to rebel. The PG is saved.

In the immediate future, Kerensky’s biggest problems would be absorbing the Soviet, restoring order , ending the war. The first two could be done, with any luck, with the creation of some type of reform program. Promising land reform would probably be enough to gain considerable support from the Russian countryside and the Socialist Revolutionary party, which was far and away the most popular party in Russia, while outlining some type of constitutional government would be enough to placate the Kadets in the PG. However, despite his support for the Entente, Kerensky would have to end the war soon. The Russian army simply couldn’t take much more at that point, and the number of insurrections breaking out across the empire as the imperial system collapsed back in 1917 would need immediate attention. With any luck, an armistice is negotiated with Berlin by early 1918, probably resulting in a milder version of the Brest-Litovsk treaty being applied to Russia, at least until the German war effort collapses later in the year.

While the Germans would probably collapse by the end of 1918, I doubt that the Entente itself would survive much after that. Neither London nor Paris would be terribly pleased at Kerensky’s armistice, and would doubtless use it to marginalize Russia’s role in the post-war order. Kerensky, for his part, would probably be quite put out to discover that the Entente powers never had any intention of actually giving Russia control over bits of the Balkans or Istanbul. I also doubt that Wilson’s babblings on self-determination would do much to reassure Kerensky of the Entente’s good faith towards Russia.

After that, I really can’t say what would happen. Russia would eventually stabilize (well, as stable as it usually gets), but I seriously doubt Kerensky was the type of leader to step aside when his time was past. I’d expect a series of pseudo-republican autocratic governments for the next three or so decades, coupled with slower industrialization, frequent civil unrest, and growing isolation from Europe. Essentially, it would be Putin’s Russia on a gradual upswing, rather than an arrested decline.


Thats a good one, but what about World War II? What would a 'democratic' Russia do in World War II?
 

HurganPL

Banned
What would a 'democratic' Russia do in World War II?
Over what would war start ?
If about Czechoslovak Republic.
I think Russia would have good relations with Czechs due to earlier slavophile ideology tradition in Czech society, and opposition to Germans.
Perhaps Germany would try to support indepedence movement in Ukraine and Baltic region against Russia.
 
Thats a good one, but what about World War II? What would a 'democratic' Russia do in World War II?
Well, without the Red Menace (and, with any luck, a reduced role for the Communist Party in post-Wilhelmite Germany), it's safe to say that the Nazis are off the board entirely. While I'm not entirely certain that we'd get a conflict of teh scale of WWII, I think that a medium-sized "Crimean War II: Crimea Harder" in the 1930-1960 period is not outside the realm of possibility. Even with Russia's participation in the Versailles conference, I doubt that the final division of the Austrian and Ottoman powers would be settled to anyone's satisfaction, and there'd be any number of opportunities for speeches to be misinterpreted and for minor disagreements to get out of hand. As for how such a war would go, and how the Russian republic would perform, who can say?
 

ninebucks

Banned
Well, without the Red Menace (and, with any luck, a reduced role for the Communist Party in post-Wilhelmite Germany), it's safe to say that the Nazis are off the board entirely. While I'm not entirely certain that we'd get a conflict of teh scale of WWII, I think that a medium-sized "Crimean War II: Crimea Harder" in the 1930-1960 period is not outside the realm of possibility. Even with Russia's participation in the Versailles conference, I doubt that the final division of the Austrian and Ottoman powers would be settled to anyone's satisfaction, and there'd be any number of opportunities for speeches to be misinterpreted and for minor disagreements to get out of hand. As for how such a war would go, and how the Russian republic would perform, who can say?

Germany still has its own internal Red Menace. Germans may still be scared enough of the increasingly organised socialised parties within their borders to elect the Nazis anyway.
 
Possible consequences of a non-Communist Russia:
- No Army purges.
- Quicker ending to World War II (?)
- Russia will be harder hit by the Depression.
- No Communist uprising in the Third World nations.
- No People's Republic of China and no Communist North Korea.
- When it comes to technology, it will be abit more primitive then in OTL. No weapons and space race...

Another thing, would Kerensky grant independance to Poland, the Ukraine and the Baltics?
Just a few points:

Won't necessarily be a WWII or Great Depression. There could still be other communist countries.

And there could still be a arms/space race, just between different countries.
 
Top