Wales, United and Free?

Zioneer · Aug 30, 2009

Is there any way to have Wales be independent and united by the middle 1100s?

Perhaps with a POD of Gruffydd ap Llywelyn not getting killed by his own followers? Or even Harold Godwinson and his brother Tostig failing to defeat him in battle?

Is there any one event or battle that had Gruffydd chosen differently, it would've changed his fate?

Dathi THorfinnsson · Aug 31, 2009

check out
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=132573
just a few days ago

ninebucks · Aug 31, 2009

The problem with Wales is that it has a mountain range running through the middle of it. As such, trade routes inevitably run east-to-west, which means that all Welshmen rely more on their English neighbours than they do on their own compatriots. With this being the case, its almost impossible for Wales to stay independent so long as England chooses to exploit its advantages.

But then, it was antipathy towards the English that created the united Welsh identity, and if, hypothetically, England were to be much, much weaker in any given TL, Wales would still be divided along north-south lines. So you could conceivably have an independent North Wales and/or an independent South Wales, but its very unlikely you'd ever have an independent United Wales.

Thande · Aug 31, 2009

I see we have another member who needs to carefully re-read the dictionary definition of the word "free" before I resort to inserting the dictionary into his head by main force.

Jason · Aug 31, 2009

ninebucks said:
The problem with Wales is that it has a mountain range running through the middle of it. As such, trade routes inevitably run east-to-west, which means that all Welshmen rely more on their English neighbours than they do on their own compatriots. With this being the case, its almost impossible for Wales to stay independent so long as England chooses to exploit its advantages.

But then, it was antipathy towards the English that created the united Welsh identity, and if, hypothetically, England were to be much, much weaker in any given TL, Wales would still be divided along north-south lines. So you could conceivably have an independent North Wales and/or an independent South Wales, but its very unlikely you'd ever have an independent United Wales.

Combine the geography with the Welsh legal tradition of dividing all property equally between all sons (including the lands of ruling princes) and you can see, it will be difficult to create a single Wales.

Zioneer · Aug 31, 2009

Dathi THorfinnsson said:
check out
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=132573
just a few days ago

Ah, I didn't see that. Well, mine has a different possible POD, so I'd say it's different enough.

ninebucks said:
The problem with Wales is that it has a mountain range running through the middle of it. As such, trade routes inevitably run east-to-west, which means that all Welshmen rely more on their English neighbours than they do on their own compatriots. With this being the case, its almost impossible for Wales to stay independent so long as England chooses to exploit its advantages.

But then, it was antipathy towards the English that created the united Welsh identity, and if, hypothetically, England were to be much, much weaker in any given TL, Wales would still be divided along north-south lines. So you could conceivably have an independent North Wales and/or an independent South Wales, but its very unlikely you'd ever have an independent United Wales.

Hmm... Yes, I suppose the mountains are a large problem. Hmm... is there any possible way to have the Welsh develop a national identity far earlier then other cultures? Or perhaps have them focus on seafaring, to make the land trade routes less important?

As for the antipathy towards the English, could that be increased in any way? Perhaps the English are weaker, but also more antagonistic towards the Welsh?

Thande said:
I see we have another member who needs to carefully re-read the dictionary definition of the word "free" before I resort to inserting the dictionary into his head by main force.

Hey, it was just a catchy title, okay? I know the definition of "free", I just used it incorrectly to have my thread appear more eye-catching. There's nothing wrong with that.

Jason said:
Combine the geography with the Welsh legal tradition of dividing all property equally between all sons (including the lands of ruling princes) and you can see, it will be difficult to create a single Wales.

Hmm... Perhaps the Welsh, facing conquest by the English/Normans, could change that tradition to a more pragmatic one?

Umbral · Aug 31, 2009

A bit older POD, a charismatic high king or Viking unites Ireland. His grandchildren and great grandchildren adds Wales plus to the kingdom. Vicious butterflies weaken England, and when the Irish realm collapses a century or two down the line, Wales has a national identity, a maritime orientation, and a different legal tradition of inheritance.

Would that work?

Zioneer · Aug 31, 2009

Umbral said:
A bit older POD, a charismatic high king or Viking unites Ireland. His grandchildren and great grandchildren adds Wales plus to the kingdom. Vicious butterflies weaken England, and when the Irish realm collapses a century or two down the line, Wales has a national identity, a maritime orientation, and a different legal tradition of inheritance.

Would that work?

Hmm... How about Brian Boru? If he succeeds in fully uniting Ireland, and doesn't get killed in his war with Máel Mórda mac Murchada, perhaps the Irish can expand into Wales, and then for whatever reason, the Boru dynasty falls into in-fighting about a century later, creating a national identity?

Butterflies for England.. Hmmm.. Perhaps Æthelred the Unready and Sweyn Forkbeard's wars/large raids against each other are more bloody? Sweyn is less successful, thus leading to more equal battles, which weaken the military of England, maybe?

Kenichiro Harada · Aug 31, 2009

I wonder how this would affect the Acts Of Union that helped to create the term "Great Britain"..

RGB · Aug 31, 2009

Umbral said:
A bit older POD, a charismatic high king or Viking unites Ireland. His grandchildren and great grandchildren adds Wales plus to the kingdom. Vicious butterflies weaken England, and when the Irish realm collapses a century or two down the line, Wales has a national identity, a maritime orientation, and a different legal tradition of inheritance.

Would that work?

This looks great at first glance, but then you run into the problem of the charming Norse custom of dividing kingship among surviving sons (and brothers too, potentially).

Denmark itself only got over that in the 11th century.

Zioneer · Aug 31, 2009

RGB said:
This looks great at first glance, but then you run into the problem of the charming Norse custom of dividing kingship among surviving sons (and brothers too, potentially).

Denmark itself only got over that in the 11th century.

I suppose the Irish had that rule as well, making Brian Boru another unusable historical figure for my scenario?

EDIT: Well, Brian Boru was also the first (and only) self-proclaimed "Emperor of the Irish" so I suppose he could decide to have a different kind of dividing possessions amongst his sons? (I.E, not at all?)

Atreus · Aug 31, 2009

Kenichiro Harada said:
I wonder how this would affect the Acts Of Union that helped to create the term "Great Britain"..

That's one big butterfly net...

RPW@Cy · Sep 1, 2009

I have heard it said that if Wales could only have survived Edward I's reign with some degree of independence, then it would probably have lasted out at least the 14th century, as the chaos that engulfed England in that period would have meant the English would be unable to concentrate on Wales. There are still a couple of problems to be overcome however, namely the geography as already discussed and the disastrous laws of succession whereby any son of a ruling prince (including the illegitimate ones) had an equal claim to succeed his father. This virtually guaranteed that civil war would follow on from the death of even the most able prince, allowing the English to have free reign.

You can't do anything about the geography, but it's absolutely vital to get strict primogeniture established both in law (IIRC both Llywelyn Fawr and Llywelyn the Last tried this) and accepted in the country at large. Ironically perhaps the English might help with this - there are already three clauses referring only to Wales in the Magna Carta (a sign of Llywelyn Fawr's great influence at the time), a fourth one stipulating that the laws of succession as understood in England will apply to all feudal subjects of the English crown (i.e. the Prince of Wales in this case) should be doable. Whether this would help Llywelyn persuade his numerous bastards to accept some lower dignity and be loyal to his chosen heir or not I don't know, but it can't do any harm. If nothing else, by removing Dafyyd ap Gruffydd or an ATL analogue from contention strict primogeniture should help Llywelyn the Last to ensure Wales gets past Edward I.

Once you get well into the 14th century the butterflys start to get out of control however - can the Tudors ever bid for the English crown if they are one of the major dynasties in an an independent Wales for example? do they even get to make the dynastic marriages that put them into contention?

Alex Richards · Sep 1, 2009

If the Tudors don't take control, who does? The only other member of the Plantagenate legitamate line is Edward, Earl of Warwick, and we could butterfly in his death without issue. (I think that the butterflys on the English Crown should be kept at a minimum.)

MNP · Sep 1, 2009

Alex Richards said:
If the Tudors don't take control, who does? The only other member of the Plantagenate legitamate line is Edward, Earl of Warwick, and we could butterfly in his death without issue. (I think that the butterflys on the English Crown should be kept at a minimum.)

Elizabeth get's re-legitimized on her own?

Jason · Sep 1, 2009

SplendidTuesday said:
Hmm... Perhaps the Welsh, facing conquest by the English/Normans, could change that tradition to a more pragmatic one?

Problem is even within our TL they didn't. Gerald of Wales did say that for the Welsh to beat the English they needed to become like the English in the way they fought and inherited land and he was ignored and considered a traitor by many welsh. Llywelyn ap Gruffudd also tried to reform the land inheritence laws and the wlesh hated him for it-ok, with him it was partly to justify invading and nicking his brother's lands but the Welsh were quite attached to their inheritence laws at the time. I think in a way this form of land division amongst heirs became part of their identity, it made them 'not English'.

Zioneer · Sep 1, 2009

Jason said:
Problem is even within our TL they didn't. Gerald of Wales did say that for the Welsh to beat the English they needed to become like the English in the way they fought and inherited land and he was ignored and considered a traitor by many welsh. Llywelyn ap Gruffudd also tried to reform the land inheritence laws and the wlesh hated him for it-ok, with him it was partly to justify invading and nicking his brother's lands but the Welsh were quite attached to their inheritence laws at the time. I think in a way this form of land division amongst heirs became part of their identity, it made them 'not English'.

Hmm.. Would my "Brian Boru survives his civil war in Ireland and conquers Wales, then his descendants lose it, causing a united Wales under oppression or whatnot" scenario work, or even be remotely plausible?

Jason · Sep 2, 2009

SplendidTuesday said:
Hmm.. Would my "Brian Boru survives his civil war in Ireland and conquers Wales, then his descendants lose it, causing a united Wales under oppression or whatnot" scenario work, or even be remotely plausible?

I am sure others will disagree but my own feeling is that unless you can get the Welsh to change their inheritance laws then any long term unity is going to be hard to maintain.

Alex Richards · Sep 2, 2009

I've got one: a particular illness strikes down a large number of the nobility, leading to a sucession crisis and the changing of the laws

Zioneer · Sep 2, 2009

Alex Richards said:
I've got one: a particular illness strikes down a large number of the nobility, leading to a sucession crisis and the changing of the laws

That might work, but what time period would be the best to have the plague occur when no outside group can easily conquer Wales?

EDIT: Wow, that was a confusing sentence. What I mean is, what's the best time period for the plague to occur? In a large portion of the independent (if divided) Wales's history, it was in danger of being taken over by whoever controlled England at the time. When is the best moment in history to have the plague strike Wales?