Two questions about the Spanish-American war

Onkel Willie · Jan 20, 2009

I have two questions. I don't know that much about this war and wikipedia doesn't have the answer. I hope you can help me on this one. Here we go:

1. Was there anyone able and/or willing to help Spain?
2. WI Germany had bought the Philippines and Spanish possessions in Central America (Cuba, Puerto Rico)? Would/could Germany do this and could/would this result in a American-German war?

Wendell · Jan 20, 2009

Onkel Willie said:
I have two questions. I don't know that much about this war and wikipedia doesn't have the answer. I hope you can help me on this one. Here we go:

1. Was there anyone able and/or willing to help Spain?
2. WI Germany had bought the Philippines and Spanish possessions in Central America (Cuba, Puerto Rico)? Would/could Germany do this and could/would this result in a American-German war?

German acquisition of the Spanish East Indies in their entirely is plausible. German acquisition short of war with the Americans of the Spanish West Indies is nearly implausible without a substantially earlier POD.

Anaxagoras · Jan 20, 2009

Onkel Willie said:
2. WI Germany had bought the Philippines and Spanish possessions in Central America (Cuba, Puerto Rico)? Would/could Germany do this and could/would this result in a American-German war?

Germany could have purchased the Philippines, but not Spanish territory in the Western Hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine states that the United States will not tolerate the transfer of European territory from one European power to another, so an attempt to cede control of Cuba from Spain to Germany would likely result in a war between the Germans and Americans.

Onkel Willie · Jan 20, 2009

Yay.

Who would win that war?

Ofaloaf · Jan 20, 2009

Onkel Willie said:
Yay. Who would win that war?

Robert Conroy said:
AMERICA WILL OVERCOME RACISM TO DEFEAT THE HUNS AND TEDDY ROOSEVELT WILL PERSONALLY PUNCH THE KAISER IN THE FACE WITH A MEAN LEFT HOOK

*cough* Anyways...

A German-American War following right on the heels of an American victory in the Spanish-American War? The two possiblities that instantly come to mind are "Cocky Americans square off against a real European Power and obviously lose" and "A freshly bloodied American military faces the nefarious Krauts and give them a good what-for." The most likely possibility is somewhere in-between, with the Germans scaring the shit out of the US East Coast and the US Navy doing its damndest to fuck with German ships.

wemayberry · Jan 20, 2009

Onkel Willie said:
Yay. Who would win that war?

The US. Germany doesn't have enough of a navy even at this point to challenge the USN in it's Home waters without conceding the North & Baltic Seas to the British, French & Russians. I believe the French would become interested in supporting the US, if only indirectly, as the memories of the Franco-Prussian war are still fresh. This would in turn limit how much of the German Army could be deployed outside of Europe.

Plus the British have traditionally supported the US in the Monroe doctrine, so without a POD that makes the US & the UK enemies, getting the Spanish West Indies is a non-starter.

As for the Spanish Pacific possessions, Germany would get what they got OTL (Marianas, etc) Post SAW plus the Philippines headache, assuming that Spain was willing to sell without a major military disaster.

Kriegdämmerung · Jan 20, 2009

Onkel Willie said:
Yay. Who would win that war?

Germans, hands down.

Germany and the US (now this is according to my APUSH teacher, so if it's exaggerated, I apologize) had already nearly come to blows over Samoa, so a war of imperialism between the two isn't unthinkable.

The High Seas Fleet could easily destroy the US East Coast fleet, and without the Panama Canal moving the Pacific Fleet from the Philippines or even the West Coast around the Strait of Magellan to fight in the Atlantic easily seems like ITTL's Tsushima (sp?).

Granted, I don't see Germany ever annexing Cuba or Puerto Rico, but the Philippines, American Samoa, the other Spanish Pacific colonies, maybe even all of America's Pacific colonies are possibilities. German Hawai'i (thank you Toco) perhaps?

But could this limit US interference in the hemisphere, at least for the next couple decades? An influx of European interventionism could be seen, such as was seen in Venezuela in 1904 (date check?), and continuing all over Latin America...

Just a thought, mind you.

Zyzzyva · Jan 20, 2009

wemayberry said:
Plus the British have traditionally supported the US in the Monroe doctrine

And by "supported" you mean "were the ones who essentially ran and enforced the thing".

wemayberry · Jan 20, 2009

Problem with the German High Seas Fleet blowing through the US Atlantic Fleet assumes that the HSF is significantly larger. It isn't at the 1898-1900 period. The HSF has roughly 6 modern (for the period) Battleships vs 4 for the US plus the American ships have both heavier armor and larger guns. While they might be able to cause a scare or three up the Eastern seaboard, it wouldn't be war winning. However gaining a bit more in the Pacific is possible, it really only sets up an eventual confrontation with Japan. Plus it gives the US a reason to support the Phillippine Insurrection as well as other uprisings through out the German colonies old & new.

Correction :
HSF has 7 modern BBs : Brandeburg, Kurfurst Friedrich, Wilhelm, Weissenburg, Worth, Kaiser Fredrich III and Kaiser Wilhem II in 1898. Plus 8 coast defense ships that might be in the batteline.

USN has 6 modern BBs : Texas, Maine, Indiana, Massachusetts, Oregon and Iowa. plus 6 Post Civil War "monitors" that might be in the battleline.

Not exactly overwhelming odds. Of course this assumes that both parties can bring all of their modern ships into the fight. This is easier for the US to do as the likely fight would be in the Caribbean on the US doorstep while Germany would have to consider whether or not to be concerned with France, Russia or British actions.

Kriegdämmerung · Jan 20, 2009

wemayberry said:
This is easier for the US to do as the likely fight would be in the Caribbean on the US doorstep while Germany would have to consider whether or not to be concerned with France, Russia or British actions.

Germany and Britain worked together in the Americas against Venezuela in December 1902. France would simply be glad they weren't the victim of German aggression, and, considering the halfway decent Anglo-German relations of the time, probably wouldn't wish to be double-teamed. The Russians have nothing to gain either way.

No one is saying the East Coast Fleet has to lose. They just have to bloodied enough to keep the US from actively being able to enforce any policies. I'm not sure about the adequacies of either sides naval leadership, but I was under the impression Germany's was better, but perhaps not.

Germany also only has to attack the Pacific, the US has to defend two oceans, and the colonies located there.

(NOTE: This is all occuring in a scenario during or shortly after the Spanish-American War)

wemayberry · Jan 20, 2009

Understood. If we are going with the idea of Germany intervening into the Spanish American war, then things are a bit different as it's Spain/Germany vs the US, the Cuban and Philippine rebels. The Naval aspects would depend heavily upon how the battles at sea played out. I still don't see Germany's fleet really having the reach but It could deploy the German army in support of the Spanish. On the other side neither the Germans or Spanish would really be able to block deployment of US troops and supplies to Cuba or the Philippines leading to a long grinding match that would likely end do to events elsewhere then victory via military prowess.

Kriegdämmerung · Jan 20, 2009

wemayberry said:
I still don't see Germany's fleet really having the reach but It could deploy the German army in support of the Spanish. On the other side neither the Germans or Spanish would really be able to block deployment of US troops and supplies to Cuba or the Philippines leading to a long grinding match that would likely end do to events elsewhere then victory via military prowess.

But my point the Germans don't have to deploy their fleet to two fronts. They could attack the Asian/Pacific territories, as it's already been established that the Caribbean territories were off-limits via the Monroe Doctrine.

All they need is to make Dewey's fleet suffer in the Philippines, which deveastates the Pacific Fleet and keeps the US from reliably taking any new territories. Then just get the British to host the peace conference instead of France, convince them of the benefits of limiting US power in the hemisphere, and PRESTO!!! A weaker US with a stronger German presence in the Pacific and a combined Anglo-German sphere in the Caribbean...

Admiral Brown · Jan 20, 2009

In Tocomocho's TL, there's a war between the US and Spain+Germany. The Pod is in the 1860s, IIRC. The US looses. I highly recomend it.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=61430

General Mung Beans · Jan 20, 2009

Onkel Willie said:
I have two questions. I don't know that much about this war and wikipedia doesn't have the answer. I hope you can help me on this one. Here we go:

1. Was there anyone able and/or willing to help Spain?
2. WI Germany had bought the Philippines and Spanish possessions in Central America (Cuba, Puerto Rico)? Would/could Germany do this and could/would this result in a American-German war?

1. No mostly likely not. Spain was neutral not in any alliance and seen by most Europeans as a backward country.
2. Probably yes since the Monroe Doctrine would not allow Germany to control any of the US

Kriegdämmerung said:
Germans, hands down.

Germany and the US (now this is according to my APUSH teacher, so if it's exaggerated, I apologize) had already nearly come to blows over Samoa, so a war of imperialism between the two isn't unthinkable.

The High Seas Fleet could easily destroy the US East Coast fleet, and without the Panama Canal moving the Pacific Fleet from the Philippines or even the West Coast around the Strait of Magellan to fight in the Atlantic easily seems like ITTL's Tsushima (sp?).

Granted, I don't see Germany ever annexing Cuba or Puerto Rico, but the Philippines, American Samoa, the other Spanish Pacific colonies, maybe even all of America's Pacific colonies are possibilities. German Hawai'i (thank you Toco) perhaps?

But could this limit US interference in the hemisphere, at least for the next couple decades? An influx of European interventionism could be seen, such as was seen in Venezuela in 1904 (date check?), and continuing all over Latin America...

Just a thought, mind you.

Hmm if the US is defeated by Germany this might result in America joining the Entente and possible no World War I with the Central Powers cowed or an earlier end to World War I.

Grey Wolf · Jan 21, 2009

Germany trying to muscle in in the Philippines (even if legitimately buying them, if there can be such a thing) would probably result in them fighting a war against Britain and Japan.

You probably end up with some sort of crazy world war erupting in 1898 out of all this mess.

Trying to work out the progression of it, and the sides involved, is a bit tricky
and would take more research than I can contemplate right now

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

jmacatty · Jan 22, 2009

Around the turn of the century, even into WWI, the German Navy was not capable of projecting power into the Western Atlantic or the Pacific. It could stage Cruisers for raiding in those areas, but not Battleline strength. The German Navy was built to threaten the British, therefore the ships were built to stage into the North Sea. As such, they had no facilities for crew maintenance. The crews lived ashore, and only worked on the ships, this is why the fleet only sortied for short periods suring WWI in the OTL. Any attempt by the Germans to mess with the US Fleet in any area outside of the North Sea would lead to a real mess for the Germans.

Anaxagoras · Jan 22, 2009

Grey Wolf said:
Germany trying to muscle in in the Philippines (even if legitimately buying them, if there can be such a thing) would probably result in them fighting a war against Britain and Japan.

You probably end up with some sort of crazy world war erupting in 1898 out of all this mess.

Combined with a Fashoda Incident that goes hot, we could see France and Germany allied together against the British Empire! Wouldn't that be fun!

bastian · Jan 22, 2009

A couple of thoughts about the Spanish-American war:
When all we think that Germany could bought Cuba and Puerto Rico, because I think that It couldn´t be in 1898 precisely so with colonies like the Philiphines and Cuba and Puerto Rico, Germany could make a strong navy to defend that. I don´t think that Spain could sell Cuba or Puerto Rico to noone (if could be someone, I would sell it to the USA, and not to Germany)
The second question is about the Monroe Doctrine. Do you know that France intervened in Mexico and Argentina,even Spain annexed Sto. Domingo., don´t you? Why do you think that they would inmediately declare war to GERMANY? (it´s to indicate that Germany hardly NEVER could be considered as a bananera state) They would need a better reason, I think.

BrotherToAll · Jan 22, 2009

The German navy at the time is untested the Americans atleast have some experiance, now I'm not saying it will be an easy victory but this in Germany circa 1898 not Germany circa 1914 there is a vast difference between the two. The German navy will have great diffculty trying to raid the east coast, now in the Pacific they will also has problems seeing as the US has a substantial fleet in that region of the world. Now America is isn't exactly a world beater in 1898 but its stong enough to be a real headache for any power. The US in 1898 could be an actual threat to Germany, their navy aint exactly top notch as was stated before the Americans have fewer battlewagons but they are more heavily armed and armored as well as manned by marginally more experianced crews and officers.

Remeber this is also about logistics the Germans have no bases to operate from in the Americas and very few in the Pacific compared to the US. The only power in 1898 that actually has to navy to drive the US from the high seas is Britain, the German navy in 1898 was built to operate close to Germany not raid the coasts of industrial powers half a world away. Now I'm not knocking on the quality of German sailors or ships but with out coaling stations and the Philipines and Cuba in American hands it will tough for them to pull anything really big off other than harrassing American merchant vessles.

Anaxagoras · Jan 22, 2009

bastian said:
The second question is about the Monroe Doctrine. Do you know that France intervened in Mexico and Argentina,even Spain annexed Sto. Domingo., don´t you? Why do you think that they would inmediately declare war to GERMANY? (it´s to indicate that Germany hardly NEVER could be considered as a bananera state) They would need a better reason, I think.

Yeah, well, the United States didn't intervene against the French because it was kind of busy fighting the Civil War at the time.