Es Geloybte Aretz - a Germanwank

[Admiral Matt]

The German smiled thinly. “I think half the agricultural labourers in Germany today are Polish. I don't know if anyone knows exact numbers, but you have an awful lot of people across the border, and they don't see the money they send their families as a formality.”

Another sign of where the racist/conservative reaction is going to come from. When all those German men come back to the farm, and the Poles aren't going home because the wages are too good?

Yeah. Unfortunate.

 

[HanEmpire]

Another sign of where the racist/conservative reaction is going to come from. When all those German men come back to the farm, and the Poles aren't going home because the wages are too good?

Yeah. Unfortunate.

This will be worsened by the economic depression sure to hit once all the soldiers return to find they don't have any surplus money to spend. Production will decrease, meaning layoffs, meaning less jobs and more destitution. Any "outsider" holding a job in Germany will be seen with hostility.

 

[carlton_bach]

You know, I've been thinking, what will China claim from Russia in the event of a victory? Carlton's spoken of territorial revisions in Turkestan, which I think is probable; the biggest issue is probably control over the Pamir mountain range in Tajikistan, control of which was settled largely in Russia's favor in the 1890s, but which China continued to dispute up until very recently. Also, I imagine that it would benefit China's strategic situation to have full control over the Altai, Dzungar, and Tianshan mountains and their passes especially, which would also involve a general push westwards of the Chinese border into Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. If China reasserts control over Mongolia, I imagine they would want to resolve the situation in Tuva to their benefit as well.

However, I can think of one other major territorial revision which has not yet been mentioned, Outer Manchuria, as described in this map here. China only ceded this territory to Russia fifty years ago, but it is, quite, simply, one of, if not the most valuable portion of the Russian Far East at the present time. China would have a historical claim on this territory, and I think that reversing the Unequal treaties of Aigun and Peking, which led to this, would be something that China would be greatly interested in.

Sure China can claim all of these territories but do they have the capability to actually take them? From what I read it seems that they will only be able to drive the Russians out of Mongolia. It's not like Germany can help out in east Asia.

They can certainly put pressure on the Russians at the peace conference. And bear in mind that while Germany is not at all interested in the political future of China or Japan per se, it will be more than happy to help them buiting off big chucks of Russia. The better to forestall any future alliances.

Worse, it invalidates the de facto attempted annexation of Manchuria the Japanese are working on. Not going to happen. They wouldn't even let Chinese troops through to fight, I'd say.

True. The Japanese wouldn't want Chinese claims in the area, and China depends completely on Japanese support for its war effort.

Adolf von Elm is a perceptive man.

He's also from the opposite side of the movement in every sense. A worker who made his way up in the world ('von' is a locative byname, not a noble title), a moderate Bernsteinian, experienced politician, and leading light of the Genossenschaftsbewegung with a vested interest in maintaining a cash economy and markets. Not to mention old enough to be Ganetsky's father.

Because it wouldn't do to have too sanguine a view of who the Polish Socialists are, would it?

Well, yes and no. ON the one hand, Ganetsky is completely delusional. On the other, he is successful beyond anyone's wildest imaginations.

Obviously Ganetsky's "friends in Zurich" include Lenin's Bolsheviks in exile (where we know they will stay, or else die if they try coming back to Russia) and either only the outer, enthusiastic but not too bright circles of them, or else he doesn't listen very carefully when people like Lenin talk.

IDK just how many of the OTL Bolshevik inner circle took the idea of carrying on with "War Communism" in Russia when they had just won the Civil War, if any, or if it was entirely a front-line cadre idea. Certainly the Politburo took a breath and enacted NEP instead.

Not immediately, though. But you have to recall three things here:

Ganetsky is young. He's not even thirty yet, and most of his youth was spent in the Socialist underground. He is a great admirer of Lenin's idea of the vanguard party forcing the change they want for society (in this, he disagrees both with Pilsudski, who is more in favour of gradual reform, and Dzerzhinski, who believes that the people will genuinely demand full Socialism once they've been educated.

Ganetsky has very little understanding of the ecomony from the bottom. He always lived a privileged existence, first as the son of a factory owner, then as a professional revolutionary funded by the party. As far as he is concerned, workers are like those little figures in Civ III: You give them enough of everything from columns 1 through 4 (food, clothing, housing, morale) and they'll be happy. His expertise, which doesn't amount to that much, is in managing numbers.

And, he operates in the context of a country torn apart by war. More than half the population under his tutelage are refugees. The retreating Russians destroyed everything of value. And he's having to invent running a war economy as ge goes along, because nobody has a blueprint for that. as a result, his view of both his own achievements and the malleability of society is a bit more than sanguine.

This is certainly a dash of cold water on Ganetsky. Parsing it carefully in Marxist-for-grammar-school terms--the Germans pay the Poles for what they sell the Germans in Marks, that is, in more or less still "hard" currency--if the war doesn't ruin the Mark that is. But for now it's hard; they could take the Marks and go buy things in say, New York or London and they'd exchange for dollars or pounds just fine. And this means they are worth a certain amount of labor-content. The Marks the Polish enterprises (or I gather, the government, acting as their agent) acquire thus in part fully compensate the Polish labor that was done--both the share actually paid to the workers in wages, and the part that accrues to the enterprise as profit. In addition to that, the Poles must, on paper, purchase raw materials from the Germans, which ordinarily means alienating some hard value, that is labor-content, via money or barter in payment to the supplier--the alternative being to buy on credit, which is to say a promise to supply the hard value later. The German government is currently enabling them to do just that latter thing; all the raw materials they are consuming in their productive labor processes (and also the food the workers consume) are being "sold" for paper of very dubious credit; Polish bonds first of all can only be worth something if the Poles win (which does seem like a surer thing every day now, but still is at least theoretically in doubt) and then have both the means and the honor to pay their accumulated bill in some kind of hard value, at a rate competitive with other investments the Germans might have made. Whereas the goods the Germans hand over are hard values, representing someone's useful labor in the past, much of it German labor.

So for now, the Germans pay twice for the Polish goods they use in the war. If the Poles later default a big part of the war expenditures would have turned out to have cost double!

Yes and no. The Mark the Germans are paying in are not convertible (the notes are stamped 'for use in Poland only' and will not be redeemed for specie, but they can be exchanged for - equally nonconvertible - paper mark at the border if you have the right paperwork). Only a few select importers are allowed access to expressly convertible funds. Germany MOst of Germany's imports are paid for by exports paid in hard currencies, which obliges German industry to produce a lot of non-war critical stuff (cue headlines about industrialists exporting German coal to France while warrior widows shiver in poorly heated housing).

So not only is Ganetsky neglecting the likelihood that Polish Socialist leaders like Pilsudski would prefer to keep the capitalist and other propertied Poles on side by to some degree honoring their property claims, he is also ignoring the German elephant in the room that will want to be first in line and making no concessions assuming Pilsudski does that. And if he doesn't--then toss him out and put in someone who does.

Pretty much, yes.

I hoped the italics would indicate I was teasing, without festooning the sentence with emoticons.



Actually though this does bring up something that bothered me. Von Elm is not just thinking of Ganetsky when he reflects that these Polish Socialists are "frightening" when you get to know them.

And if Ganetsky really is a competent economist who really has been successful in organizing work processes and getting solid results--why should such elementary facts slip by him? He knows, or should know, how much of the value of what his enterprises put out is due to German subsidy, and the idea of just how many Reichsmarks the Polish nation owes the Germans should be haunting him, not forgotten!

I wouldn't call him a brilliant economist. He has a basic grasp of economics and a flair for management, but he's in his twenties, inexperienced, excitable, and caught up in a bubble of his own making. The debt does not worry him too much because, even assuming there is no world revolution coming, it can be paid off with the product of Poland's labour (who will, naturally, eagerly volunteer to free their newly won country of that burden so they can then advance into the new, bright future). He is convinced that a managed command economy will be much more productive than a creaky laissez-faire thing, so that won't be a huge deal. And he has a record of success that makes all this look credible to him. After all, Poland is in a much better state than it was a year ago. By his metrics, he's brilliant. The mobilisation of refugee labour, basically in return for food and a blanket, has produced enormous manpower reserves for the army's logistics. Practically nobody has starved to death this year (except for peasants in remote areas who refused to join the work brigades, and of course the people in the penal units, who are supposed to). And given his lack of patience with failure, his subordinates bring him only good news.

He is going to be in for a rude awakening when he finds out that the Army Council considers his whole little fiefdom a temporary emergency measure.

Anybody with sufficient knowledge of affairs will be worried. A revolutionary organization with Dzierżyński near the top is bound to be terrifying. And now it turns out that the communists are not only influential, but actually think they are successfully running a country. At least Piłsudski regards socialism as a means to an end ("Comrades, I took the red tram of socialism to the stop called Independence, and that's where I got off. You may keep on to the final stop if you wish, but from now on let's address each other 'Mister"), and can be expected to try to prevent communist nonsense afterwards, assuming he resembles his OTL self. So postwar Poland will be a rump state and German satellite, but it at least probably avoids a communist disaster (other then Dzierżyński) to add insult to injury.

THat's the plan. THe Army Council has a real problem with manpower, which partly explains the problem. They could only use people they trusted, because there were so many Okhrana agents around in the early years. With Dmovski walking out in a huff, the expertise of the moderate conservative side is gone. THe church is incrasingly seen as the enemy, and its interest in cooperating with a war economy is practically nil, anyway. Most people in army leadership can sort of rub along while there's fighting to be done, but the civilian support branches are desperate for competence (Nobody wants to tell little Agniezka the rousing story of how they totted up output statistics in the great war). That's how people like Ganetsky and Dzerzhinski get promoted. They're willing to do dirty work.

The difference is that Dzerzhinski is a scheming bastard with an immediate aim. He'll last. Ganetsky is an idealist. He won't.

Another sign of where the racist/conservative reaction is going to come from. When all those German men come back to the farm, and the Poles aren't going home because the wages are too good?

Yeah. Unfortunate.

A lot of them probably will (Germany has no compunctions expelling them, either), but it will be a contributing factor.

This will be worsened by the economic depression sure to hit once all the soldiers return to find they don't have any surplus money to spend. Production will decrease, meaning layoffs, meaning less jobs and more destitution. Any "outsider" holding a job in Germany will be seen with hostility.

Imagine how well the German public will react when they find out that all their blood and tears won them very little. The good news is that it won't be that bad. Germany has a competent leadership and a successful export industry. But German workers will, for decades to come, be earning less and working more than their French, British or Dutch neighbours to pay off the war debt and finance the new allies. It doesn't take massive unemployment surges to make people grumble. And the hard right will be more than happy to point out that Germany could be the master of all those lands now if only the government pansies had actually dared to dictate a real conqueror's peace...

 

[Athelstane]

Hello Carlton,

Imagine how well the German public will react when they find out that all their blood and tears won them very little. The good news is that it won't be that bad. Germany has a competent leadership and a successful export industry. But German workers will, for decades to come, be earning less and working more than their French, British or Dutch neighbours to pay off the war debt and finance the new allies. It doesn't take massive unemployment surges to make people grumble. And the hard right will be more than happy to point out that Germany could be the master of all those lands now if only the government pansies had actually dared to dictate a real conqueror's peace...

It will be rough, no question - a roughness that certain figures will attempt to seize upon for their own agenda.

But at least Germany will have won the war. It will be nothing like the soul-searching going on in Russia, where they'll have been thumped by two great powers in rapid succession, bleeding out territories and treasure to secure a humiliating peace, reduced in prestige to something like an over-sized Austria-Hungary - only much less likable.

It's all relative, I suppose. Not that this will be much solace to many of those German workers. Not quite so bad as the situation in France in our timeline ca. 1918-1925, but...

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

It will not be obvious to the man on the street, but having defeated Russia (and soundly defeated) means that Germany will have a secure Eastern Flank.

THe Netherlands and Sweden will be considered in the GErman sphere of influence too.

Austria-Hungary - split up or not does not matter - the sucessor states are in Germany sphere secures Germanys south (east).

The OE will be more than willing to "use" Germany to hold the Brits at distance (well who uses whom is another question )

On the continent thereis only one remaining opponenet - France. And France alone is not strong enough to challenge Germany.Germany, which does not want french territory, will not act agressive against France, so Britain will not have an easy excuse to "put Germany to its rightful place".

Politically Germany is quite secure now. Italy can be a troublemaker, but Italy will be probably acting only against A-H. And Italy does not threaten a second front".

Overall the situation for Germany is good - 1-2 years of war does not cost the victor as much as 4,5 years OTLY costed Britaion and France (no important areas were devastated by trench warfare). I assume the "load" on the average citizen is - while measurable - not TOO "taxing" - pun intended

Germany also can save money on NOT building a fleet.

And last but not least internally if there ARE discontent groups each party will pint to the other and say THEY also voted for the war program measures.

So no big party can captialise on the war. Given that the extreme right has no severe loss to capitalize on the rise of a NSDAP equivalent is also implausible.

Hard times yes, but clever propaganda can sell them as temorary "price" for success.

 

[Faeelin]

THe Netherlands and Sweden will be considered in the GErman sphere of influence too.

The Germans will think so, but their biggest trrading partners are probably still Britain.

 

[Mr.brightside]

The Germans will think so, but their biggest trrading partners are probably still Britain.

I think the Netherlands has a good chance of being a middleman between the two empires

 

[Mr.brightside]

It will not be obvious to the man on the street, but having defeated Russia (and soundly defeated) means that Germany will have a secure Eastern Flank.

THe Netherlands and Sweden will be considered in the GErman sphere of influence too.

Austria-Hungary - split up or not does not matter - the sucessor states are in Germany sphere secures Germanys south (east).

The OE will be more than willing to "use" Germany to hold the Brits at distance (well who uses whom is another question )

On the continent thereis only one remaining opponenet - France. And France alone is not strong enough to challenge Germany.Germany, which does not want french territory, will not act agressive against France, so Britain will not have an easy excuse to "put Germany to its rightful place".

Politically Germany is quite secure now. Italy can be a troublemaker, but Italy will be probably acting only against A-H. And Italy does not threaten a second front".

Overall the situation for Germany is good - 1-2 years of war does not cost the victor as much as 4,5 years OTLY costed Britaion and France (no important areas were devastated by trench warfare). I assume the "load" on the average citizen is - while measurable - not TOO "taxing" - pun intended

Germany also can save money on NOT building a fleet.

And last but not least internally if there ARE discontent groups each party will pint to the other and say THEY also voted for the war program measures.

So no big party can captialise on the war. Given that the extreme right has no severe loss to capitalize on the rise of a NSDAP equivalent is also implausible.

Hard times yes, but clever propaganda can sell them as temorary "price" for success.

But the they don't know how OTL played out for Germany. Plus it already has been shown that Russia will be back for round two. This will be something the Germans will be preparing for starting at the end of this war. A big question I have would be if France joins Russia this time. The Germans got really lucky that this didn't happen. However I think that in the inter war period both Germany and France are going to court the Ottomans. Germany needs those stairs closed. Seeing how France is allied with Italy and Russia I doubt the OE will want to side with them. Therefore the stairs are closed and France may join the war based on that.

 

[Faeelin]

I think the Netherlands has a good chance of being a middleman between the two empires

How/why?

They both have ports.

Speaking of France, how do French socialists feel about this war?

On the one hand, Polophillia was a thing. And the Tsar is shooting reds like it's his job (which it kinda is). On the other hand, nobody wants Germany to win. I have a silly image of French volunteers for both sides shooting at each other; although I suspect Clemenceau is smart enough to stop that from happening.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

But the they don't know how OTL played out for Germany. Plus it already has been shown that Russia will be back for round two. This will be something the Germans will be preparing for starting at the end of this war. A big question I have would be if France joins Russia this time. The Germans got really lucky that this didn't happen. However I think that in the inter war period both Germany and France are going to court the Ottomans. Germany needs those stairs closed. Seeing how France is allied with Italy and Russia I doubt the OE will want to side with them. Therefore the stairs are closed and France may join the war based on that.

Round Two will be away some time - Russia is beaten once and France will not be trusted in the future by Russia, so the thing Germny feared most (a two front war) is prevented. GErmany also got some prperty in the east (even if its an independent Poland and Finland which will stand by Germany for fearing to be absorbed by Russia again (Baltics - not sure independent, Duchy within Germany?)

The Netherlands are a valuable trading partner as they own the DEI - all those raw materials available to Germany (for a price), rubber, oil, metals. I assume Germany will have a flotilla stationed near the DEI to offer assistance if somebody lays its eyes on those pretties...

 

[Mr.brightside]

Round Two will be away some time - Russia is beaten once and France will not be trusted in the future by Russia, so the thing Germny feared most (a two front war) is prevented. GErmany also got some prperty in the east (even if its an independent Poland and Finland which will stand by Germany for fearing to be absorbed by Russia again (Baltics - not sure independent, Duchy within Germany?)

The Netherlands are a valuable trading partner as they own the DEI - all those raw materials available to Germany (for a price), rubber, oil, metals. I assume Germany will have a flotilla stationed near the DEI to offer assistance if somebody lays its eyes on those pretties...

But who would threaten them Japan? Though now that i think about the Germans will have to decide between China or Japan at some the future. Wouldn't it be ironic if they choose China (more useful against Russia IMHO) and that drove Japan into being co belligerents with Russia.

 

[wietze]

The Netherlands are a valuable trading partner as they own the DEI - all those raw materials available to Germany (for a price), rubber, oil, metals. I assume Germany will have a flotilla stationed near the DEI to offer assistance if somebody lays its eyes on those pretties...

not even near is needed, now they have cooperated they can use the ship facilities in the dutch indies for ship maintenance(which means a lot lower logistic burden for the germans to keep their ships in good condition since these facilities and much nearer), so there might be some official cooperation in that area.

 

[Mr.brightside]

not even near is needed, now they have cooperated they can use the ship facilities in the dutch indies for ship maintenance(which means a lot lower logistic burden for the germans to keep their ships in good condition since these facilities and much nearer), so there might be some official cooperation in that area.

I wonder how they we build up their navy after the war. They would have justification to build more battleships but not pissing of Britain seems like a cornerstone of their foreign policy. Maybe they can't build battleships with a reduction in range to retard there usefulness outside the Baltic sea. This could be made up fore with long range heavy cruisers. Knowing Wilhelm there may be some experiments in naval aviation. I'd love to see AH and QE build of sizable navies too. A amphibious landing in the black sea wounder be epic.

Also something I've been thinking about is that with a WW1-lite taking place before the widespread adoption of dreadnoughts and its butterflies. I don't see why their development would be too different and i think that Battlecruisers when till appear as per OTL. However there is now battle of Jutland to show the faults of the design. Which could mean that they will be more widespread and carry thinner amour. Is Jackie Fisher still influential in ATL?

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

not even near is needed, now they have cooperated they can use the ship facilities in the dutch indies for ship maintenance(which means a lot lower logistic burden for the germans to keep their ships in good condition since these facilities and much nearer), so there might be some official cooperation in that area.

I think the Kaiserliche Marine would use "Rabaul" as main base - near the DEI, but still in German held land.

GErmany certainly will build dreadnoughts, but only a force that does NOT threten British naval dominance, but easily dominating the French or Russians (how striong the latter will be depends on to much) and being able to hold against them combined.

In the medium run the Americans will start to build their navy (second to none?) which might lead to Anglo-American antagionism - Here again the Brits might see Germany as the lesser evil and a potential friend. I would not wonder if round two sees a Russo-French-American Entente (including the Italians maybe) vs the Quadruple Alliance of Germany, Britain, A-H and Japan) -I assume the OE might sit on the sidelines and wait for the time one alliance has clear advantages.

China will be a secondary battlefield (Japan + UK vs Russia and French)

There might be a Zimmerman telegram to Mexico, which might be willing to lend a hand in the war - even if its (at first) only economic help (oil and metals).

A true Global war fought on each ciontinent (maybe with the exception of Australia, but what if the US starts an incasion from the Phillies )

Pure speculation I know

 

[Vnix]

I hope this war kicks us dutchies into gear and start building a proper navy to defend the DEI, more importantly, get a significant military increase across the board!

Furthermore we need more massive migration to the colonies to make sure we hold them, and population growth in Europe so we've got a large enough pool to draw soldiers from

 

[wietze]

I think the Kaiserliche Marine would use "Rabaul" as main base - near the DEI, but still in German held land.

i did not mean just port facilities in the DEI, but the advanced maintenance facilities like drydocks etc.

the home port of the german pacific squadron would of course be in a german held port.

Furthermore we need more massive migration to the colonies to make sure we hold them, and population growth in Europe so we've got a large enough pool to draw soldiers from

One thing that is going to help somewhat is the fact that this war butterflied otl WW1 and as such also the appearance of the spanish flu, so come the 20s there will a lot more people available for migration.

 

[jakewilson]

Except that the Dutch weren't in WWI but are in this one, so I'm not sure that 'no WWI' equates to there being loads more Dutch people.

And anyway, I should think that the prospect of indefinite foreign rule in the DEI isn't a positive thing.

 

[wietze]

jake, this wasn't about the war as such, but about the spanish flu, which was a indirect result from the war. the spanish flu killed around 100-150M worldwide (world wide deathrate was 3-6% of population). and the dutch population during ww1 also suffered from the illegal entente blockade (yes they were blockaded too, even the netherlands was neutral).
The deaths of influenza were mainly in the productive 18-40 age group.
that would for netherlands mean an additional 68.000 people available.

indefinite rule was never in the cards, i think already in the late 20s plans were considered for its future, which would mean releasing sumatra and java (both as seperate entities, either as a country/ dominion, whichever they chose) by the 60s. borneo, celebes,the molluccas and new guinea were supposed to stay in the dutch realm.

 

[Monty Burns]

Flu pandemics were rather regular occurrences in former times, and actually a pandemic is overdue today. So there might still be a Spanish Flu, only that its impact could be mitigated. Albeit not much, as it was a major Killer also in places less affected by the war, and peacetime international contacts are still galore at the time - WW1 did much to reduce them in fact.

 

[wietze]

oh i agree, though ww1 directly contributed to shaping (and very likely its conception) of the spanish flu. the spanish flu was a true pandemic, and in its working an odd one out. minor outbreaks still will occur, but not of this flu.

maybe more cases occurring of encephalitis lethargica?