What if spanish American war

[Musica]

What if Spain somehow defeated insurgents in new Spain and keep control of it and years later let's say 1846 had to fight United States over lands in north part of new Spain (let's say the war started over Spain deporting settlers of u.s due to security risk because of settlers outnumbering locals)could Spain defend lands from invasion?

 

[Gwachiko]

If Spain manages to hold off Americans long enough, I suspect Britain and France will intervene and mediate a status-quo ante-bellum peace.

 

[Murazor]

What if Spain somehow defeated insurgents in new Spain and keep control of it and years later let's say 1846 had to fight United States over lands in north part of new Spain (let's say the war started over Spain deporting settlers of u.s due to security risk because of settlers outnumbering locals)could Spain defend lands from invasion?

Dude, do you even know what 19th century history was like for Spain?

Immediately following Napoleon being kicked out, the new king started purging intellectuals like they had gone out of style, then a mutiny that forced the king to restore the liberal constitution he had previously abolished, followed three years later by a french invasion that restored absolutism, followed by lots more purging and rioting and executions and what-have-you.

This is followed shortly afterwards by a brutal civil war lasting some six years, then a chain-gang of coups and counter-coups.

In short, Spain having the ability to wage meaningful war across the atlantic by the mid 19th century requires nothing short of alien space bat intervention.

 

[AcaciaSgt]

Dude, do you even know what 19th century history was like for Spain?

Immediately following Napoleon being kicked out, the new king started purging intellectuals like they had gone out of style, then a mutiny that forced the king to restore the liberal constitution he had previously abolished, followed three years later by a french invasion that restored absolutism, followed by lots more purging and rioting and executions and what-have-you.

This is followed shortly afterwards by a brutal civil war lasting some six years, then a chain-gang of coups and counter-coups.

In short, Spain having the ability to wage meaningful war across the atlantic by the mid 19th century requires nothing short of alien space bat intervention.

To be fair, the insurrection in New Spain had actually been almost stamped out by 1820. You only mostly had a few holdouts waging guerrilla war in the Sierra Madre del Sur. If Iturbide and company had not switched sides (could this be possible, then?), it's likely New Spain could've actually been held. Or at least, the insurrection lasting for a few more years.

But well, it's hard to say what would happen with Spain's further problems across the 1820's and beyond.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

What if Spain somehow defeated insurgents in new Spain and keep control of it and years later let's say 1846 had to fight United States over lands in north part of new Spain (let's say the war started over Spain deporting settlers of u.s due to security risk because of settlers outnumbering locals)could Spain defend lands from invasion?

It probably depends on the exact POD and how well Spain's doing by the 1840s. If the Spanish Empire is reasonably loyal and competently governed, I think they'd be able to summon up the resources to, if not drive the Americans out altogether, at least confine any losses to the more peripheral and under-populated parts of New Spain. If the Empire's a seething cauldron of resentment just waiting to have a second try and independence, the strain of fighting a major war could well cause it to disintegrate.