WW1 Delayed Until 1916

Say that, for whatever reason, Franz Ferdinand isn't killed in 1914. Instead, he makes it to 1916 before Young Serbia/The Black Hand break his mortal coil. Maybe he literally just doesnt go to Bosnia in 14. Regardless, there's still a month of dillydallying and conflicting orders, Kaiser Wilhelm still gives a blank cheque to an Austria that takes to long to act, and Germany still goes through Belgium.

Yes it's extremely unlikely to go this way, but the premise of the thread is "our world war one two years later."

What I want to know is: how does buying russia more time improve their economy and military standing? OTL they did manage to get the jump on germany and ah for a time. Does britain still get involved after belgium, or does ireland pull them out of europe for too long? Does france fare any better or does paris fall?
 
What's the incorporation of motor-trucks, armored cars, aircraft, and radios in armed forces by this point? What percentage of Russian plans have gone by the book versus gotten watered down by corruption or internal disturbances? Where does the Black Sea naval balance stand? Has the Balkans been war-free for a couple years? The Germans and Austrians should have larger forces with more modernized artillery by this point.
 
France:

Improves dramatically. Modern uniforms mean they will take fat fewer casualties

End of three year law means end to Plan XVII. Enough said. It also means their active army will not have 2/3 of it's men with only 8months training.

Serbia:. Much better. The army expansion due to its conquests will make great progress.

Romania:. Almost certainly cuts ties with Austria after the death of King Carol.

Russia:. Much much better. The railroad expansion will allow for an extra 200 trains a day arriving. They will not only deploy faster, but deeper possibly over the Vistula.

Their artillery will be equal to Germany's 1914 army.

Italy:. Will almost certainly be done with the Triple Alliance unless Austria quits it's backstabbing.

Britain:. The Tories will go bonkers on Fleet expansion and be much more loyal to the Entente

Germany:. Wild card do they still develop poison gas and can they keep it a secret?
 
The Ottomans have their dreadnoughts but will they join the war.

I believe German planning was to replace Scharnhorst and Geneisenau with a battle cruiser in the far east by this stage.

The last two Bayern class battleships get built.
 
how does AH fair? are these advantadges for the entente able to compound into a faster war?
Austria needs fewer enemies. She simply can't compete with all of them at once. The problem is who can she buy off?

They all see Austria as weak and getting weaker. They all want Austrian territory with the exception of Russia- who wants to dominate the Balkans which is even worse.

She can try to bring Bulgaria into an alliance. Certainly the Bulgarians are willing to fight but they want to be on the winning side. That's looking less and less like Austria with every year.
 
France:

Improves dramatically. Modern uniforms mean they will take fat fewer casualties

End of three year law means end to Plan XVII. Enough said. It also means their active army will not have 2/3 of it's men with only 8months training.

Serbia:. Much better. The army expansion due to its conquests will make great progress.

Romania:. Almost certainly cuts ties with Austria after the death of King Carol.

Russia:. Much much better. The railroad expansion will allow for an extra 200 trains a day arriving. They will not only deploy faster, but deeper possibly over the Vistula.

Their artillery will be equal to Germany's 1914 army.

Italy:. Will almost certainly be done with the Triple Alliance unless Austria quits it's backstabbing.

Britain:. The Tories will go bonkers on Fleet expansion and be much more loyal to the Entente

Germany:. Wild card do they still develop poison gas and can they keep it a secret?

France will also have completed its acquisition of 105mm howitzers to largely replace the 75 as a divisional gun.
 

Lexijag

Banned
1 GB most likely neutral. They were moving away from allies as Russia gained strength.
2 ah massively stronger. One of the key weaknesses they had in 14 was very poor artillery. The 16 plan was to have a very impressive artillary park per division / Corp. Actually stronger than the germans. Wiking had a nice listing of ah divisional artillery planned for 16. I believe conrad was set to retire in 16 ( the big gain )
3 Russia the same. Their was no plans for improved leadership at platoon up to army level. Their artillery expansion was on straight fire artillery with a very low percentage of howitzers. Wrong material for this war. 2 years is not enough time
4 without GB involvement Italy will wait and see. Ah solid performance vs Russia, GB neutrality, and French attacks with moral superiority vs firepower will lead to a repeat of 14 , might bring Italy in on cp side in 17.
 
France:

Improves dramatically. Modern uniforms mean they will take fat fewer casualties

End of three year law means end to Plan XVII. Enough said. It also means their active army will not have 2/3 of it's men with only 8months training.

Serbia:. Much better. The army expansion due to its conquests will make great progress.

Romania:. Almost certainly cuts ties with Austria after the death of King Carol.

Russia:. Much much better. The railroad expansion will allow for an extra 200 trains a day arriving. They will not only deploy faster, but deeper possibly over the Vistula.

Their artillery will be equal to Germany's 1914 army.

Italy:. Will almost certainly be done with the Triple Alliance unless Austria quits it's backstabbing.

Britain:. The Tories will go bonkers on Fleet expansion and be much more loyal to the Entente

Germany:. Wild card do they still develop poison gas and can they keep it a secret?
The uniform thing is a meme. People didn’t camouflage, they charged in infantry blocks over beaten ground. I’d blame that more than uniform color. At 400 yards you barely see the color. Everything looks like a shade of black or grey unless you’re completely red. A German machine gunner or artillery man would massacre a French block in equal measure regardless if it’s dressed in purest whites, gaudiest golds or darkest of blacks.
 
Would there still need to be a war even if FF is killed. Two years is a long time and governments change, the Black Hand could had been broken up or split. A lone killer?
 
The uniform thing is a meme. People didn’t camouflage, they charged in infantry blocks over beaten ground. I’d blame that more than uniform color. At 400 yards you barely see the color. Everything looks like a shade of black or grey unless you’re completely red. A German machine gunner or artillery man would massacre a French block in equal measure regardless if it’s dressed in purest whites, gaudiest golds or darkest of blacks.
The uniform is far more than a meme. If it was, they wouldn't have bothered to change it.
 
In Germany the federal election 1912 saw the SDP gain 67 seats and become the largest single party and for the first time along side the Centre party and the progressives form a coalition gov pretty much anti the more conservative parties.

Can you squeeze in another election in the extra 2 years further cementing that base?

If so how does that change things? I guessing the Junkers etc will be just as keen to try and reverse what they see as social swing against them and their values with good old patriotic war, would a 2nd SDP led government be able to make more moves here even under the Kasier?
 
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The problem with that is that the expansion of the russian rail network and faster mobilization makes the Schliffen plan absolutely impossible. Im not sure what the new german plan will be but there will be a new plan.
Indeed a delayed war will mean that Germany's focus will completely shift eastward. The Germans liked there planning its why the Schliffen plan existed. As soon as they see this shift of power balance Germany's thinking will change. In short a Russian first strategy will very likely be adopted.
 
Indeed a delayed war will mean that Germany's focus will completely shift eastward. The Germans liked there planning its why the Schliffen plan existed. As soon as they see this shift of power balance Germany's thinking will change. In short a Russian first strategy will very likely be adopted.
What do they do about France then? They can fortify of course and hope they can hold the west while beating the east but it's giving up the initiative and that not the the usual German plan
 
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If you delay it, it may break out different, but if the premise it will break out similar to OTL:

Russia - stays the same. Bless you my good Board brethren for thinking Russia can improve all things being equal. I know the English and the French diplomats played a parlor game of how much more powerful Russia will become just around the corner in the lead up to the War, with England even sweating the scenario where Russia becomes so powerful as to no longer needing France and thereby abandoning the Entente, but that's just paranoia, wistful thinking and seeing giant Russian parades and thinking all of Russia is like St. Petersburg. Russia was not a giant on knees of clay, it was a giant on its knees, trying to look taller by wearing a bigger hat. It was all smokes and mirrors.

Germany - largely the same. The Kaiser would still make puzzling remarks and plan various invasions and attacks and then back off at the last second, when push comes to shove, while his military planners rolled their eyes, and diplomats bow and smile politely and try not to make eye contact to avoid him randomly talking about how his parents hated him (he actually began a conversation thus on a Russian Imperial yacht while talking to the Russian prime-minister, who was horrified).

Austro-Hungarian Empire - messier. With the senile walker of bridges and his awesome muttonchops no longer there, it would cause a lot of re-assessment among the various nationalities. It won't quite fall apart, but there is an issue of how readily the Empire will rally around.

France - different. 1914 was actually seeing a cooling of the pro-military ardor, so where and how the French military will be is an interesting thought experiment. I will leave it to French experts to ratify how, but I would say given French politics ran hot and cold and as a true republic with cabinets falling apart all the time, it might be a quite different France that goes to war and how it treats such a war.

UK - largely the same, if Grey is in charge. Grey was a gloriously inscrutable jerk, and I mean that almost as a compliment. As a politician in charge of the mightiest empire on Earth, he did not want to commit himself to anything he could not talk himself out of, while at the same time talking of portends and being drawn forward by events beyond his control. Grey is the guy who when found in bed of the sister of his wife would talk his way out while getting dressed and eyeing the window, and then discuss his horror at the notion of divorce and its effects on families. His double-talk confused his foes and friends, and infuriated the Opposition. It is even odds in 1916 if Grey takes UK into war, but should he do it, then it would be largely the same in terms of lessons not learned and learned.

Italy - I have no idea. Would it still stay neutral for a bit, or would it want to jump into the fray right away? No idea.

Serbia - the X-factor. Pasic was holding on by a beard and prayer in 1913-14, including having to have France issue a statement that they would not deal with Serbia not lead by him when it looked like he was going to be regime changed and have his corpse thrown off a balcony by the Serbian state-within-a-state of the military rogues, ultra-nationalists, bandits and bald headed fellas playing at spies. I think he holds on, because you shouldn't bet against survivors, but it might be a very different Serbia that goes to war, due to changes and having three years to make peace with being a bigger nation (they literally doubled in size due to the Balkan Wars).
 
Two years is a long time and governments change, the Black Hand could had been broken up or split. A lone killer?
Doubt it. The Black Hand and Serbian government was intertwined when they murdered King Alexander and as many of his relatives as they could in 1903
 
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