WW1 Aufmarsch II Ost in maps

Great maps, do you have a youtube guide on their production?

How do you think the war would go if it occurred in 1904 instead? (Germany pouncing on Russia during Russo-Japanese war) UK is forced to neutrality by their alliance with Japan
 
Great maps, do you have a youtube guide on their production?

How do you think the war would go if it occurred in 1904 instead? (Germany pouncing on Russia during Russo-Japanese war) UK is forced to neutrality by their alliance with Japan
Just to put my 2c in here, would be a bit far-fetched... considering that Willy sort-of goaded Nicky along to teach the "yellow peril" a lesson... think he was a bit mortified by just how badly the Russians fared...
 
You have a two year grinder war here, its cost Germany a lot of money, but yet Russia is still a colossus.

Peace with France is easy, could be colonial, Honestly the best for Germany is the Pacific islands easy to police, Not so costly to maintain, and money is needed to repay war costs, The Marquesas Islands and New Caledonia, Extend Togo up to the Niger, The Comoros. Maybe a 15 year occupation of Logwy and Briery and medium reparations, none of that should annoy England too much. Germany could annex Luxembourg if it wants more territory in the west.

Russia is tricky, separating the Baltics and Poland is tricky, at least they can and would be willing help defend themselves against the Russian colossus, but a rump Poland could incite Polish populations in Poland or Austria, didn't have to worry about that before. I can see a "Serbia" like problem with a rump Poland down the road. Maybe Baltic states+Finalnd only would be best. If you can convince the Poles to be a willing part of this new order, the Populations of Germany + Austria + Sweden +Poland +Baltics+Turkey+Rommania, could be a match for the Russian colossus.

I imagine Turkey would want Kars and Batum back, maybe some modern Russian destroyers as booty and a light cruiser or two.
Luxembourg is easy enough... just admit them as a constituent state of the Empire, exempt them from Salic Law (as they have a Grand Duchess)... no doubt Rupprecht of Bavaria would approve :)
 
Just to put my 2c in here, would be a bit far-fetched... considering that Willy sort-of goaded Nicky along to teach the "yellow peril" a lesson... think he was a bit mortified by just how badly the Russians fared...
In this alt that would be part of Wilhelm's masterful realpolitik. It only takes one convincing argument for Wilhelm to realise that Russia is only going to get relatively stronger and there will never be a more opportune moment
 
In this alt that would be part of Wilhelm's masterful realpolitik. It only takes one convincing argument for Wilhelm to realise that Russia is only going to get relatively stronger and there will never be a more opportune moment
I agree, but Wilhelm was never exactly a master of realpolitik :D. Oh, he had his pragmatic side, but it usually took quite a bit of provocation for that to come out. Maybe this Alt-Wilhelm should have some in-depth conversations with old von Der Goltz about the "Asiatics" :)
 
Great maps, do you have a youtube guide on their production?

How do you think the war would go if it occurred in 1904 instead? (Germany pouncing on Russia during Russo-Japanese war) UK is forced to neutrality by their alliance with Japan

Thanks! But I don't have a Youtube guide.

As for a Russo-German war in 1904, I lean more towards @Aghasverov 's opinion. I am missing a clear casus belli. Did Germany and Japan not have conflicting interests in China? Or was that not yet the case at the time?
 
Thanks! But I don't have a Youtube guide.

As for a Russo-German war in 1904, I lean more towards @Aghasverov 's opinion. I am missing a clear casus belli. Did Germany and Japan not have conflicting interests in China? Or was that not yet the case at the time?
As far as German interests in Asia, there were fairly large economic interests in China - plus of course Tsingtao. The interests weren't conflicting too much yet, but given time, they would be.
For Japanese expansion, it would make sense to go after the "low-hanging fruit" 1st, ie the nation with the weakest presence in East Asia...
 
As I understand it, Germany's interests in China and Asia in general, was part of 'getting it's place in the sun' alongside the other Great Powers, so they're not fundamentally opposed to Japan's growing dominance beyond run-of-the-mill idiot racism, but they wanted a piece of that juicy Chinese pie.

As for a Russo-German war at the same time/as part of the Russo-Japanese war I suppose it could easily come down to some circumstance in the Baltic that spirals.
I've toyed with the idea for my own timeline of the infamously trigger happy Baltic Fleet on their way around the world to reinforce Vladivostok (only to be doomed at Tsushima) to fire on a German cruiser that was just unfortunate to sail out of a fog bank at a bad time. The resulting diplomatic kerfuffle spirals to a separate war between Germany and Russia. Needless to say a two-front Russian war in 1904 would be very bad for Russia, who had enough trouble against the 'clearly inferior' Japanese.
I've seen similar scenarios involving Britain, as the very real and very silly Dogger Bank Incident attests.
 
I am missing a clear casus belli.
It's my position that casus belli are rarely the reason for war. Rather the powerholders of a state have to want to go to war, then they will find casus belli wherever they look. It is easy to generate one, could be anything from assisting Sweden in getting Finland back, protecting Romania, liberating the Poles, whatever you like.

For example if the USA didn't want to go to war with Spain then the Maine explosion would have just been dealt with diplomatically. Similarly with assassination of FF, AH could have made a more reasonable ultimatum but they wanted to go to war.

Japan's alliance with the British meant, in part, that if any nation allied itself with Russia during any war against Japan, then Britain would enter the war on Japan's side. Russia could no longer count on receiving help from either Germany or France without the danger of British involvement in the war. With such an alliance, Japan felt free to commence hostilities, if necessary.


All of this stuff you can simply imagine that instead of Wilhelm's plan to break up France and Russia (which is a pretty shit plan) the plan was actually to strike Russia when Britain can't get involved, and if France defends Russia then Britain is obligated to join Germany.
For Japanese expansion, it would make sense to go after the "low-hanging fruit" 1st, ie the nation with the weakest presence in East Asia...
It doesn't really make any sense to alienate powers over what amounts to a tiny fruit. That's like Japan going to war with Portugal. For what? No German territory in Asia is worth the (future) HSF being on Japan's side. Germany is Japan's natural ally, almost every other power has more overlapping interests. Equally however if Germany is alienating Britain and the USA then Japan should abandon them because unless you want to fight UK/USA it's not worth annoying them because they probably won't go to war with you.

Since 97—Kiaochow—we have never left Russia in any doubt that we would cover her back in Europe, in case she decided to pursue a bigger policy in the Far East that might lead to military complications (with the aim of relieving our eastern border from the fearful pressure and threat of the massive Russian army!). Whereupon, Russia took Port Arthur and trusting us, took her fleet out of the Baltic, thereby making herself vulnerable to us by sea. In Danzig 01 and Reval 02, the same assurance was given again, with result that entire Russian divisions from Poland and European Russia were and are being sent to the Far East. This would not had happened if our governments had not been in agreement![38]

Probably deserves it's own thread: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/1904-germany-betrays-russia.504875/
 
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I have a question: I thought that the strategic situation on the Western front for most the war was strongly influenced by the amount of French territory Germany occupied. I thought a good amount of France’s industrial territory was occupied, which diminished French war-fighting potential. It also put the weight on the French to conduct offensives to evict the foreign occupier from the motherland, despite the tactical advantage the defense held. Therefore in this ATL 1916, France is in a substantially stronger position than OTL 1916, certainly not on the verge of surrendering. The front lines are probably pretty much on the Franco-German border, the front is shorter, French defensive fortifications have greater depth. Also, they’re not suffering from unrestricted submarine warfare or the threat of an invasion through Belgium since that would bring Britain (where tons of ships are being built by men who didn’t go die in the trenches) into the war.
 
I have a question: I thought that the strategic situation on the Western front for most the war was strongly influenced by the amount of French territory Germany occupied. I thought a good amount of France’s industrial territory was occupied, which diminished French war-fighting potential. It also put the weight on the French to conduct offensives to evict the foreign occupier from the motherland, despite the tactical advantage the defense held. Therefore in this ATL 1916, France is in a substantially stronger position than OTL 1916, certainly not on the verge of surrendering. The front lines are probably pretty much on the Franco-German border, the front is shorter, French defensive fortifications have greater depth. Also, they’re not suffering from unrestricted submarine warfare or the threat of an invasion through Belgium since that would bring Britain (where tons of ships are being built by men who didn’t go die in the trenches) into the war.
You are right that France is in better shape in this TL than in OTL, because the industry in Northern France remains intact. But because Britain remains neutral in this TL, there is no naval blockade of Germany. The German war industry will therefore also be in a better position. So the stalemate remains intact.

France will not be defeated militarily, but will have to give up the war because she cannot win. Especially not if Russia gives up the war.

Should Britain declare war on Germany, Germany will no longer be able to win. Germany will then sooner or later have to give up the war, without being militarily defeated, just like in OTL.
 
So the stalemate remains intact.

France will not be defeated militarily, but will have to give up the war because she cannot win

Why does France have to give up the war in a stalemate? France can run out the clock waiting for the Germans to do something that offends the international community and form a new alliance configuration against them. The Germans were really good at antagonizing great powers that were otherwise inclined towards neutrality during this era.
 
France will not be defeated militarily, but will have to give up the war because she cannot win.

I think it's quite possible it could be defeated outright -- probably *would* be -- but it would take at least a couple campaigning seasons, and a lot of dead Germans.
 
I agree, but Wilhelm was never exactly a master of realpolitik :D. Oh, he had his pragmatic side, but it usually took quite a bit of provocation for that to come out. Maybe this Alt-Wilhelm should have some in-depth conversations with old von Der Goltz about the "Asiatics" :)
So it's not Wilhem that has the idea, it's one of his generals.
I'm certain a suitable CB could be manufactured (tell the austrians to start something with the serbs f.e).
 
Why does France have to give up the war in a stalemate? France can run out the clock waiting for the Germans to do something that offends the international community and form a new alliance configuration against them. The Germans were really good at antagonizing great powers that were otherwise inclined towards neutrality during this era.
The primary german war aim was neutralising Russia. To change the balance of power France needs to do something, whereas Germany can just wait and do nothing - and with Russia trashed, and WW1 being the bloodbath it is, i supremely doubt anyone wants to join after russia is down, not on France's side anyway.
 
The primary german war aim was neutralising Russia. To change the balance of power France needs to do something, whereas Germany can just wait and do nothing - and with Russia trashed, and WW1 being the bloodbath it is, i supremely doubt anyone wants to join after russia is down, not on France's side anyway.

Historically Germany did neutralize Russia and the United States still entered the war, which I think is a rather greater feat than drawing Britain into the war.
 
Historically Germany did neutralize Russia and the United States still entered the war, which I think is a rather greater feat than drawing Britain into the war.
The us entered the war before Russia was out, and their understanding of the situation was British propaganda, and most importantly - they only joined after Germany provoked them severely, which it only did because it was desperate.
With Russia out, Germany isn't desperate.
 
France can run out the clock waiting for the Germans to do something that offends the international community
The French are as likely to make this blunder as the Germans, come to think of it. Britain not immediately coming to their aid against the Germans is likely to result in a lot of hurt feelings as British involvement was rather assumed by the French. The odds of a French diplomatic blunder trying to berate London into action might have the opposite effect and prompt the British to maintain a 'strong neutrality' in the war.

My money is on the French doing something very foolish with their navy, trying to stop (neutral) British shipping from going near German ports.
 
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