WW1 Aufmarsch II Ost in maps

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Ostaufmarsch Plan Germany

Since I was unable to find a detailed existing plan, I mainly based myself on actual invasions of (Russian) Poland:

...
For whatever it might be worth ... perhaps at least as a piece of information for eventual future usage 😊:
Here are some maps of the actual plans (as far as we know today)​
8F3P2ON.jpg


Hopefully the image shows up -- first time I've tried to post one!

This shows the locations of 1st through 4th Armies in the 1911/12 Aufmarsch II Ost plan.
The 1912/13 Ost plan was similar.

The 1st Army was to contain six active corps plus one reserve corps. 2nd, 3rd and 4th Armies would have a total of eight active corps plus six reserve corps split between them (not sure how many each particular army was to receive).


vLv9vG1.jpg


Above is the deployment for the 1912/13 Ost II plan. Zuber notes that the German eastern railway network was insufficient, so 4th Army (composed of 8 infantry divisions) will be slower in its deployment than the others, and will initially have only a defensive mission. 2nd Army (composed of 10 inf div) was expected to detrain at the Vistula, then road march the 100km to its assembly area around Ortelsburg; this entire process was expected to take around a week.

These deployment slow-downs would presumably affect any large Ost plan.

As nearly as I can tell, the above agrees with Rast's post about initial deployments. His post is far more detailed about both deployment locations and lines of attack, and I'd trust it (his sources are clearly more comprehensive than mine!).

Note that the German armies will have to reduce several fortresses fairly early into their offensive efforts: Kovno, Grodno, Osowiec, possibly Novogeorgievsk (unless evacuated due to the defeat of the field armies further east). With the temporary exception of Osowiec, I don't think any of these put up a prolonged resistance OTL. Most were poorly maintained despite the vast sums spent on them prewar.


The maps are from Zuber's The Real German War Plan, and are protected by copyright. I share them for your informational purposes only, so please don't use them in a way that violates copyright laws. :)
And here are some compositions of the mentioned armies on Corps level :
Composition was different:
1st army: II, V, X, III, VI, VR, VIR.
2nd army: XVII, XX, IV, XI, IVR.
3rd army: XII, XIX, I, IR, XIIR.
4th army: G, GR, XR, IIIR.
OTL 8th army corps are marked in blue.
 
As a first thought :
WOW !! COOL Maps !!!
You've done them ??? GREAT work, I'm flattened.
Esp. the first ones : done completly by yourself ? ... or did you use a templeate ? ... and when where can I get it.🤓

Will need some time to go through them in detail and their comments.

Thank you for your compliments! It is an honor :)
Yes, I used a "template" which I found on wikipedia: Schlacht in Galizien
Someone has already vectorized this map, which made it easy for me. But I did make some adjustments to the background map.

I look forward to your comments!
 
For whatever it might be worth ... perhaps at least as a piece of information for eventual future usage 😊:
Here are some maps of the actual plans (as far as we know today)​

And here are some compositions of the mentioned armies on Corps level :

Thank you, very interesting!

4 armies in East Prussia ... That seems very crowded there! I have also considered the possibility of attacking only from East Prussia, at the same time as an attack from Austria-Hungary to the north in order to cut off the Polish salient. But then Germany makes itself dependent on Austria-Hungary for the success of this plan. Which would indeed have been the wrong guess as know from OTL. I therefore abandoned this "ambitious" plan and opted for a more cautious approach, as eventually happened in OTL.
 
Thank you, very interesting!

4 armies in East Prussia ... That seems very crowded there! I have also considered the possibility of attacking only from East Prussia, at the same time as an attack from Austria-Hungary to the north in order to cut off the Polish salient. But then Germany makes itself dependent on Austria-Hungary for the success of this plan. Which would indeed have been the wrong guess as know from OTL. I therefore abandoned this "ambitious" plan and opted for a more cautious approach, as eventually happened in OTL.
These are beautiful maps, excellent job, really.
As far as the OTL 4 armies in East Prussia, it has to do with the fact that in the initial mobilizations, there wouldn’t be any major Russian formations west of the Vistula which would warrant the deployment of an entire army. This area could be secured by LandwehrKorps, as the 1st Armee moved to cut off the Polish salient before it could be filled with troops. OTL the Landwehrkorps concentrated in Silesia to support the left flank of the Austrian attack. As far as the deployment being somewhat crowded... it appears that way on the map, but the same could be said of the initial German deployments in the West OTL. While I’m not an expert on the German railway system, I’d assume that the network in East Prussia was robust enough considering the actions of the planners.

None of this is mean’t as an attack on your map series/timeline by the way. Like you mention the German plan was somewhat dependent on the success of the Austro-Hungarian offensive. So your timeline is still as excellent thought exercise.
 
I'm always up for a Germans-Turn-East Great War scenario, and there is some good stuff here (Well executed maps!!). I do have a couple quibbles, though...

Attitude Italy:
Italy will also remain neutral in the first instance. However, because the United Kingdom does not take part in the war, the likelihood is increased that Italy will still join the central powers in 1915. This after promises about annexations (Trento, Nizza, Corsica, Tunis, ..). However, Italy will not have any significant influence on the course of the war.

Attitude Ottoman Empire:
Since the German navy ships Goeben and Breslau do not have to flee to Istanbul for the British navy, they remain active in the Mediterranean. This means that they cannot force the Black Sea Raid and thus the Ottoman Empire remains neutral.

1. In truth, when you look at the state of Italian politics in 1914, there really is a steep hill to climb to get Italy into war on behalf of the Central Powers. Italy had been drifting out of the Berlin-Vienna orbit for years: it had reached a satisfactory trade resolution with France; German outreach to the Ottomans undercut Italian interests in Libya and the Eastern Med; Austrian annexation of Bosnia had been done without consultation with Rome, and this is now repeated again over the ultimatum to Belgrade; and British rapprochement with the Entente made the prospect of Italian belligerency against it a much more dangerous prospect. And of course, most of the targets (and Italian populations) of Italian Revanchist sentiment were held by Austria rather than France.

The dice were really loaded in favor of Italian neurality by this point, with an Entente lean; indeed, it really took a fluky set of circumstances resulting in a power vacuuum in late 1914-early 1915 allowing one crucial figure, Italian Foreign Minister Baron Sidney Sonnino, to push Italy into war as an Entente power. I would argue, with I think some weight of evidence, that Italy will not join the Central Powers until the war is basically and obviously won, a last minute leap to grab a few spoils (at most, Tunis and maybe Nice...or perhaps just Menton). Otherwise, neutrality would be the order of the day.

2. The course of Admiral Souchon, commander of the Mittelmeerdivision, in this scenario requires a careful examination of the timeline as we know it. In fact, it was as early as July 30, some five days before war was declared by Britain, that First Sea Lord Winston Churchill ordered the British Mediterranean Fleet to cover the French transports taking the XIX Corps from North Africa, with some pretty ballsy orders: "You will proceed to aid the French in the transportation of their African Army by covering, and if possible, bringing to action individual fast German ships, particularly Goeben, who may interfere in that action. You will be notified by telegraph when you may consult with the French Admiral. Do not at this stage be brought to action against superior forces, except in combination with the French, as part of a general battle. " Effectively, both the British and Germans were acting, at least in the Mediterranean, as if they were at war already. This was going to make any extended operations against French warships and shipping off Algeria an unlikely prospect for Souchon no matter what happened in Whitehall. Far too risky - and anyway, the engines of Souchon's ships were not up to it.

The clincher, though, is just when the orders to Souchon to head for Constantinople are transmitted: It was at 2:35am on August 4 - almost a full day before the hour war was declared by Britain - that Tirpitz radioed Souchon: "Alliance with government of CUP concluded 3 August. Proceed at once to Constantinople." Clearly, German diplomatic efforts with the Porte were proceeding on a much faster track than, and independent of, what was happening in NW Europe. That being the case, it still seems very likely that Souchon is ordered to Constantinople, even in the context of a decision by Wilhelm's government to stand on defense in the West. Berlin will still want all the help they can get against Russia.

And if that is the case, Turkish belligerency is likely to follow - especially with a neutral Britain not an immediate threat. (Even if Churchill is not permitted to seize the two Turkish battleships.)
 
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These are beautiful maps, excellent job, really.
As far as the OTL 4 armies in East Prussia, it has to do with the fact that in the initial mobilizations, there wouldn’t be any major Russian formations west of the Vistula which would warrant the deployment of an entire army. This area could be secured by LandwehrKorps, as the 1st Armee moved to cut off the Polish salient before it could be filled with troops. OTL the Landwehrkorps concentrated in Silesia to support the left flank of the Austrian attack. As far as the deployment being somewhat crowded... it appears that way on the map, but the same could be said of the initial German deployments in the West OTL. While I’m not an expert on the German railway system, I’d assume that the network in East Prussia was robust enough considering the actions of the planners.

None of this is mean’t as an attack on your map series/timeline by the way. Like you mention the German plan was somewhat dependent on the success of the Austro-Hungarian offensive. So your timeline is still as excellent thought exercise.

Hm ... well, if "4 armies in East Prussia" were possible, it could have been successful in the end. The choice is between more pressure from the north on the Polish salient, or more pressure from the southwest, as in my own timeline. Both options will result in that the Russians have to give up Poland, I think. Maybe I'll work out a "Version B".

Still, the route from the north seems more difficult to me, because there are two rivers to cross (Narew and Bug), of which the Narew was fortified. In both 1915 and 1939 the Germans chose to have the strongest attack from the southwest.
 
I'm always up for a Germans-Turn-East Great War scenario, and there is some good stuff here (Well executed maps!!). I do have a couple quibbles, though...



1. In truth, when you look at the state of Italian politics in 1914, there really is a steep hill to climb to get Italy into war on behalf of the Central Powers. Italy had been drifting out of the Berlin-Vienna orbit for years: it had reached a satisfactory trade resolution with France; German outreach to the Ottomans undercut Italian interests in Libya and the Eastern Med; Austrian annexation of Bosnia had been done without consultation with Rome, and this is now repeated again over the ultimatum to Belgrade; and British rapprochement with the Entente made the prospect of Italian belligerency against it a much more dangerous prospect. And of course, most of the targets (and Italian populations) of Italian Revanchist sentiment were held by Austria rather than France.

The dice were really loaded in favor of Italian neurality by this point, with an Entente lean; indeed, it really took a fluky set of circumstances resulting in a power vacuuum in late 1914-early 1915 allowing one crucial figure, Italian Foreign Minister Baron Sidney Sonnino, to push Italy into war as an Entente power. I would argue, with I think some weight of evidence, that Italy will not join the Central Powers until the war is basically and obviously won, a last minute leap to grab a few spoils (at most, Tunis and maybe Nice...or perhaps just Menton). Otherwise, neutrality would be the order of the day.

2. The course of Admiral Souchon, commander of the Mittelmeerdivision, in this scenario requires a careful examination of the timeline as we know it. In fact, it was as early as July 30, some five days before war was declared by Britain, that First Sea Lord Winston Churchill ordered the British Mediterranean Fleet to cover the French transports taking the XIX Corps from North Africa, with some pretty ballsy orders: "You will proceed to aid the French in the transportation of their African Army by covering, and if possible, bringing to action individual fast German ships, particularly Goeben, who may interfere in that action. You will be notified by telegraph when you may consult with the French Admiral. Do not at this stage be brought to action against superior forces, except in combination with the French, as part of a general battle. " Effectively, both the British and Germans were acting, at least in the Mediterranean, as if they were at war already. This was going to make any extended operations against French warships and shipping off Algeria an unlikely prospect for Souchon no matter what happened in Whitehall. Far too risky - and anyway, the engines of Souchon's ships were not up to it.

The clincher, though, is just when the orders to Souchon to head for Constantinople are transmitted: It was at 2:35am on August 4 - almost a full day before the hour war was declared by Britain - that Tirpitz radioed Souchon: "Alliance with government of CUP concluded 3 August. Proceed at once to Constantinople." Clearly, German diplomatic efforts with the Porte were proceeding on a much faster track than, and independent of, what was happening in NW Europe. That being the case, it still seems very likely that Souchon is ordered to Constantinople, even in the context of a decision by Wilhelm's government to stand on defense in the West. Berlin will still want all the help they can get against Russia.

And if that is the case, Turkish belligerency is likely to follow - especially with a neutral Britain not an immediate threat. (Even if Churchill is not permitted to seize the two Turkish battleships.)

Thank you for your input, you know a lot of details about the Mittelmeerdivision. Well, if the Goeben and Breslau were on their way to Constantinople anyway, it is likely that the Ottoman Empire joined the Central Powers. And given the hostile attitude between Italy and the Ottoman Empire, it is indeed almost impossible that Italy would join the central powers.

I do not expect this to have a significant effect on developments on the Eastern Front. The Russians will have to deploy divisions against the Ottoman Empire. But they probably kept these in reserve in the east anyway.
 
I do not expect this to have a significant effect on developments on the Eastern Front. The Russians will have to deploy divisions against the Ottoman Empire. But they probably kept these in reserve in the east anyway.

Oh, no question about that. Turkish belligerency would probably be more of a morale hit to Russia than anything else. Though it would also put paid to any transhipment of French aid through the Straits, too (as in OTL), I suppose...

Otherwise, I think your timeline of the Russian front all looks very plausible. Love the maps.
 
These are beautiful maps, excellent job, really.
As far as the OTL 4 armies in East Prussia, it has to do with the fact that in the initial mobilizations, there wouldn’t be any major Russian formations west of the Vistula which would warrant the deployment of an entire army. This area could be secured by LandwehrKorps, as the 1st Armee moved to cut off the Polish salient before it could be filled with troops. OTL the Landwehrkorps concentrated in Silesia to support the left flank of the Austrian attack. As far as the deployment being somewhat crowded... it appears that way on the map, but the same could be said of the initial German deployments in the West OTL. While I’m not an expert on the German railway system, I’d assume that the network in East Prussia was robust enough considering the actions of the planners.

None of this is mean’t as an attack on your map series/timeline by the way. Like you mention the German plan was somewhat dependent on the success of the Austro-Hungarian offensive. So your timeline is still as excellent thought exercise.

I have worked out the "4 armies in East Prussia" scenario. This scenario ultimately produces the same result as the "southwest" scenario, perhaps even better...

I started from the idea that Russia will launch the first attack, after which Germany will launch a counter-offensive. In the map below I have worked out the counter-offensive. Germany will be able to cross the Narew and Bug. After that, the offensive loses its power, because the supply lines get longer. After an attack by the Russian 10th Army, the Germans will probably have to retreat behind the Bug. The plan to cut off the Polish salient has failed anyway, because Austria-Hungary has to withdraw behind the San.

At the end of September, Germany will take up defensive positions and move divisions south. These divisions will form a 9th army. Together with the Austro-Hungarian army, the 9th army will start an offensive to push back the Russians. Then the Russian front collapses and the Russians withdraw from Poland and most of Galicia.

From the end of October, the situation is the same as my previously outlined timeline.

EasternFront_B.png
 
I have worked out the "4 armies in East Prussia" scenario. This scenario ultimately produces the same result as the "southwest" scenario, perhaps even better...

I started from the idea that Russia will launch the first attack, after which Germany will launch a counter-offensive. In the map below I have worked out the counter-offensive. Germany will be able to cross the Narew and Bug. After that, the offensive loses its power, because the supply lines get longer. After an attack by the Russian 10th Army, the Germans will probably have to retreat behind the Bug. The plan to cut off the Polish salient has failed anyway, because Austria-Hungary has to withdraw behind the San.

At the end of September, Germany will take up defensive positions and move divisions south. These divisions will form a 9th army. Together with the Austro-Hungarian army, the 9th army will start an offensive to push back the Russians. Then the Russian front collapses and the Russians withdraw from Poland and most of Galicia.

From the end of October, the situation is the same as my previously outlined timeline.

View attachment 613790
Very nice. This seems like a pretty logical outcome. I agree that the Polish salient probably wouldn’t be cut. Only way to do that would be to improve Austro-Hungarian performance, like have their 4th Army encircle and destroy the Russian 5th Army as Komarow during the battles of Galicia in August. If that had happened maybe it could have then swung southeast to assist Austrian 3rd Army against the attack of the Russian 8th and 3rd Armies by hitting their left flank. Or maybe the Russians are forced to cancel this attack due to the gap left by 5th Army’s destruction. Alternatively, if the Austrian 2nd Army is deployed to Galicia from the start, this movement by their 4th Army would maybe not be needed, and it and 1st Army can continue driving toward Lublin and Kholm, with the goal of linking up with the Germans around... Brest-Litovsk maybe? That was Conrad con Hotzendorf’s plan anyway.

Again, great map! What program did you use to make these?
 
Very nice. This seems like a pretty logical outcome. I agree that the Polish salient probably wouldn’t be cut. Only way to do that would be to improve Austro-Hungarian performance, like have their 4th Army encircle and destroy the Russian 5th Army as Komarow during the battles of Galicia in August. If that had happened maybe it could have then swung southeast to assist Austrian 3rd Army against the attack of the Russian 8th and 3rd Armies by hitting their left flank. Or maybe the Russians are forced to cancel this attack due to the gap left by 5th Army’s destruction. Alternatively, if the Austrian 2nd Army is deployed to Galicia from the start, this movement by their 4th Army would maybe not be needed, and it and 1st Army can continue driving toward Lublin and Kholm, with the goal of linking up with the Germans around... Brest-Litovsk maybe? That was Conrad con Hotzendorf’s plan anyway.

Again, great map! What program did you use to make these?

Thank you for your compliment! Yes, indeed, if the Austro-Hungarian 2nd Army had been deployed immediately in Galicia, the Russian offensive would have been halted much earlier. In that scenario, the 1st and 4th Army could have continued their offensive to the north. Probably before the end of September the Germans would have met somewhere halfway through the salient. The Russian 9th Army might not have had time to escape, which would have been a severe blow to Russian morale. But since the war started because of Serbia, it is understandable that the 2nd Army was deployed against Serbia.

I make these maps using Adobe Illustrator.
 
Surprised I'm only finding this TL now, as it's entirely within my interests.
I might end up stealing a good bit of this (with very justified shout-outs) for one of my own timelines, if I ever get around to it.
Fantastic work all around!

Do you have a plan for the post-war borders? I would assume Poland and the Baltic states are granted independence under German protection/suzerainty, and France forced to give up claims to Alsace, but I've no idea about Austrian or Turkish gains (if any).
 
Surprised I'm only finding this TL now, as it's entirely within my interests.
I might end up stealing a good bit of this (with very justified shout-outs) for one of my own timelines, if I ever get around to it.
Fantastic work all around!

Do you have a plan for the post-war borders? I would assume Poland and the Baltic states are granted independence under German protection/suzerainty, and France forced to give up claims to Alsace, but I've no idea about Austrian or Turkish gains (if any).

Thank you GrahamB, I do have a plan in mind in that direction. Now only the time to make a nice map. I have also ideas about the Ottoman Empire. I will start additional threads on this soon.
 
You have a two year grinder war here, its cost Germany a lot of money, but yet Russia is still a colossus.

Peace with France is easy, could be colonial, Honestly the best for Germany is the Pacific islands easy to police, Not so costly to maintain, and money is needed to repay war costs, The Marquesas Islands and New Caledonia, Extend Togo up to the Niger, The Comoros. Maybe a 15 year occupation of Logwy and Briery and medium reparations, none of that should annoy England too much. Germany could annex Luxembourg if it wants more territory in the west.

Russia is tricky, separating the Baltics and Poland is tricky, at least they can and would be willing help defend themselves against the Russian colossus, but a rump Poland could incite Polish populations in Poland or Austria, didn't have to worry about that before. I can see a "Serbia" like problem with a rump Poland down the road. Maybe Baltic states+Finalnd only would be best. If you can convince the Poles to be a willing part of this new order, the Populations of Germany + Austria + Sweden +Poland +Baltics+Turkey+Rommania, could be a match for the Russian colossus.

I imagine Turkey would want Kars and Batum back, maybe some modern Russian destroyers as booty and a light cruiser or two.
 
You have a two year grinder war here, its cost Germany a lot of money, but yet Russia is still a colossus.

Peace with France is easy, could be colonial, Honestly the best for Germany is the Pacific islands easy to police, Not so costly to maintain, and money is needed to repay war costs, The Marquesas Islands and New Caledonia, Extend Togo up to the Niger, The Comoros. Maybe a 15 year occupation of Logwy and Briery and medium reparations, none of that should annoy England too much. Germany could annex Luxembourg if it wants more territory in the west.

Russia is tricky, separating the Baltics and Poland is tricky, at least they can and would be willing help defend themselves against the Russian colossus, but a rump Poland could incite Polish populations in Poland or Austria, didn't have to worry about that before. I can see a "Serbia" like problem with a rump Poland down the road. Maybe Baltic states+Finalnd only would be best. If you can convince the Poles to be a willing part of this new order, the Populations of Germany + Austria + Sweden +Poland +Baltics+Turkey+Rommania, could be a match for the Russian colossus.

I imagine Turkey would want Kars and Batum back, maybe some modern Russian destroyers as booty and a light cruiser or two.

Regarding Turkey / Ottoman Empire, I think this is a tricky one. I have therefore started a new thread on that topic:
What will happen to the Ottoman Empire if Britain doesn't enter WW1?
 
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