Would a Victorious Hannibal have come to Blows with the Carthaginian Senate?

[Alamannicus]

It absolutely pains me that our primary sources on Carthage are severely lacking on account of one Scipio Aemilianus. That being said, Hannibal's wild ride through Spain, Gaul, and Italy, while a delight to the Carthaginian generals and soldiers who had a score to settle with Rome, caused much grumbling among the landed Carthaginian aristocracy. The traditional narrative is that these landowners had a ringleader in the form of Hanno the Younger, who if you were a rabid Hannibal fanboy like me in my yout', treacherously stabbed Hannibal in the back when he was on the cusp of victory after Cannae, sabotaging efforts to send Hannibal reinforcements.

Now of course, the reasons for Hannibal's defeat go beyond Hanno and his cabal (it very well could be that Hanno's involvement in Hannibal's slow decline in Italy is heavily overstated). However, it is very clear that while powerful in Barcid-conquered Spain, Hannibal more than likely had many an enemy in the Carthaginian establishment. Had by whatever means Hannibal achieved victory in the Second Punic War (now more than likely equipped with a massive army of Spaniards, Gauls, Africans, and Italians), might we see a similar situation to Caesar and Pompey with Hannibal and Hanno?

 

[Hastings]

Yeah, I don't put long prospects on the Carthaginian republic. Hannibal and relatives already control Spain and probably much of Italy ATL, have a very high reputation, and Hannibal is quite competent. Its just not good when one family is plausibly equal to literally the entire rest of the republic combined. I don't think it will be Caeser/Pompey though. Hannibal's faction will be in stronger relative position than Ceaser was (just controlling Gaul and ~ 1/3rd of legions).

 

[octoberman]

He would become the Emperor of Carthage and unrivalled in the Mediterranean conquering it. But it will fall apart after his death because of the mercenary nature of his Army

 

[Collondi]

Yeah, I don't put long prospects on the Carthaginian republic. Hannibal and relatives already control Spain and probably much of Italy ATL, have a very high reputation, and Hannibal is quite competent. Its just not good when one family is plausibly equal to literally the entire rest of the republic combined. I don't think it will be Caeser/Pompey though. Hannibal's faction will be in stronger relative position than Ceaser was (just controlling Gaul and ~ 1/3rd of legions).

He would become the Emperor of Carthage and unrivalled in the Mediterranean conquering it. But it will fall apart after his death because of the mercenary nature of his Army

I think you guys are overestimating how strong Hannibal is. If we’re talking not long after the war, he definitely doesn’t have the navy to launch a naval invasion of Carthage, and he has a smaller army. Remember that Carthage had an army that could rival Rome twice. He really only controlled the coastline of Spain and the rest was spheres of influence, and the entire justification of the war was liberating Italy, so at most the newfound Italian states would be tributaries at best

It might be doable, this is Hannibal we’re talking about, but it’s extremely risky and not worth it IMO. I think he’s better off consolidating in Spain, securing alliances in Italy, building his economy, and redirecting trade so New Carthage becomes the new center of commerce in the western Mediterranean. Maybe his son or grandson could start making moves. That is if they even want to in the first place

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Carthage had no navy anymore so Hannibal could use the shipbuilders in Italy and the Roman Fleet to attack Carthage and as Carthage had to call Hannibal back to defend itself I don't think they really have a chance.
After he took power however Hannibal might expand Carthage's territory a little bit further but it shouldn't be forgotten that Carthage is mainly a nation like Venice or Genoa it isn't ready to take a role like the one Rome had in our timeline

 

[Kerney]

One of the cool scenarios here is ex Roman Legionaries, added to Hannibal's mercenary command and becoming influential.

 

[Collondi]

Carthage had no navy anymore so Hannibal could use the shipbuilders in Italy and the Roman Fleet to attack Carthage and as Carthage had to call Hannibal back to defend itself I don't think they really have a chance.
After he took power however Hannibal might expand Carthage's territory a little bit further but it shouldn't be forgotten that Carthage is mainly a nation like Venice or Genoa it isn't ready to take a role like the one Rome had in our timeline

But Carthage did have a navy, they rivaled Rome on the seas quite heavily and were pretty much equal in size to Rome navally, so even if Hannibal inherits half the Roman navy it still wouldn’t be enough, and building and maintaining a navy isn’t easy, it literally drove the Carthaginians bankrupt partly because of how costly it was. As for army, they didn’t need Hannibal’s force to defend themselves considering most of his force was composed of Italian allies and wouldn’t have come with them, they needed Hannibal’s own military genius and for him to admit his Italian campaign failed.

Of course Hannibal would have likely been elected democratically like OTL, and without Rome breathing down his neck and without so much fiancial strain he could probably resist the senate and wouldn’t have to flee into exile, and he could probably pass the anti-corruption anti-embezzlement reforms he tried to implement OTL. Instead of preparing for a coup, something his enemies would absolutely notice he’s doing and use it as an excuse to attack him, doesn’t it make more sense to appeal to the common people, his main power base? He could try to democratize Carthage more, portraying himself as a man of the people while simultaneously fighting the Senate’s influence. He’d have to be subtle about it so he doesn’t piss off whatever allies he might have among the elite. In the long term this could mean the Carthaginian republic goes through a conflict analogous to the Roman republic OTL, with Hannibal and his family representing the populares equivalent and Hanno and his senatorial cabal representing the optimates

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

But Carthage did have a navy, they rivaled Rome on the seas quite heavily and were pretty much equal in size to Rome navally, so even if Hannibal inherits half the Roman navy it still wouldn’t be enough, and building and maintaining a navy isn’t easy, it literally drove the Carthaginians bankrupt partly because of how costly it was. As for army, they didn’t need Hannibal’s force to defend themselves considering most of his force was composed of Italian allies and wouldn’t have come with them, they needed Hannibal’s own military genius and for him to admit his Italian campaign failed.

Of course Hannibal would have likely been elected democratically like OTL, and without Rome breathing down his neck and without so much financial strain he could probably resist the senate and wouldn’t have to flee into exile, and he could probably pass the anti-corruption anti-embezzlement reforms he tried to implement OTL. Instead of preparing for a coup, something his enemies would absolutely notice he’s doing and use it as an excuse to attack him, doesn’t it make more sense to appeal to the common people, his main power base? He could try to democratize Carthage more, portraying himself as a man of the people while simultaneously fighting the Senate’s influence. He’d have to be subtle about it so he doesn’t piss off whatever allies he might have among the elite. In the long term this could mean the Carthaginian republic goes through a conflict analogous to the Roman republic OTL, with Hannibal and his family representing the populares equivalent and Hanno and his senatorial cabal representing the optimates

Hannibal couldn't use ships to go to Italy because after the First Punic War the Carthaginian navy couldn't compete with the Roman one anymore.
Well he could also march on Carthage and say that he was liberating the people from their corrupt and incompetent leaders its not really like they can stop him.

 

[Collondi]

Hannibal couldn't use ships to go to Italy because after the First Punic War the Carthaginian navy couldn't compete with the Roman one anymore.

Maybe that was true at the beginning of the war, but Carthage built up their navy over the course of the war and were able to compete with Rome for two decades in Sicily and Sardinia, while the Roman strategy was specifically to block the Barcid navy from developing and the Barcids suffered naval defeats like at the battle of the Ebro river and/or struggled to keep together their naval allies, so Hannibal would be at severe disadvantage navally post-2nd Punic war

WAR AT SEA IN THE SECOND PUNIC WAR on JSTOR

Christa Steinby, WAR AT SEA IN THE SECOND PUNIC WAR, Ancient Society, Vol. 34 (2004), pp. 77-114

www.jstor.org

Army wise the largest army Hannibal ever raised was reported as 90,000 while the total Carthaginian army was estimated at 150,000 in 215 BC, which when subtracting both Hannibal and Hazdrubal’s army probably gives us around 100,000 men. So the situation is more equal there, but those numbers are highly fickle and dependent on allies.

Well he could also march on Carthage and say that he was liberating the people from their corrupt and incompetent leaders its not really like they can stop him.

But they can stop him, at least they have a pretty good shot at stopping him. Once again if Hannibal started gearing up and building his army and navy suddenly everyone would notice. Also I’m not so sure the public would be so supportive of Hannibal taking absolute power. We unfortunately don’t know enough about Carthaginian class structures and the relationship between classes but it took a century of Roman Republican erosion before it finally fell. It generally takes a lot for people to support a governmental coup, even by a popular figures. At the very least, he wouldn’t have the support of the merchant class, since civil war is bad for business

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Maybe that was true at the beginning of the war, but Carthage built up their navy over the course of the war and were able to compete with Rome for two decades in Sicily and Sardinia, while the Roman strategy was specifically to block the Barcid navy from developing and the Barcids suffered naval defeats like at the battle of the Ebro river and/or struggled to keep together their naval allies, so Hannibal would be at severe disadvantage navally post-2nd Punic war

WAR AT SEA IN THE SECOND PUNIC WAR on JSTOR

Christa Steinby, WAR AT SEA IN THE SECOND PUNIC WAR, Ancient Society, Vol. 34 (2004), pp. 77-114

www.jstor.org

Army wise the largest army Hannibal ever raised was reported as 90,000 while the total Carthaginian army was estimated at 150,000 in 215 BC, which when subtracting both Hannibal and Hazdrubal’s army probably gives us around 100,000 men. So the situation is more equal there, but those numbers are highly fickle and dependent on allies.

But they can stop him, at least they have a pretty good shot at stopping him. Once again if Hannibal started gearing up and building his army and navy suddenly everyone would notice. Also I’m not so sure the public would be so supportive of Hannibal taking absolute power. We unfortunately don’t know enough about Carthaginian class structures and the relationship between classes but it took a century of Roman Republican erosion before it finally fell. It generally takes a lot for people to support a governmental coup, even by a popular figures. At the very least, he wouldn’t have the support of the merchant class, since civil war is bad for business

Well I think that troops and navy would much rather support a fantastic general that has just defeated their greatest enemy than some aristocrat who never proved himself in battle.
Also Hannibal could certainly re-use Roman (more Italians aligned to Rome) ship-builders to have a fleet able to defeat the Carthaginian, which if they could stop him they would've done it with Scipio when he landed in Africa

 

[NedStark]

Well he could also march on Carthage and say that he was liberating the people from their corrupt and incompetent leaders its not really like they can stop him.

This is just simply projecting late Roman Republic politics into Carthage.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

This is just simply projecting late Roman Republic politics into Carthage.

Well yes, but my point is that Carthage itself doesn't have the power to stop Hannibal from overthrowing the government if he wanted to do so, if he did or not is another matter entirely.
Also let's be honest 99.9999% of governments is corrupt to some extent.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

Army wise the largest army Hannibal ever raised was reported as 90,000 while the total Carthaginian army was estimated at 150,000 in 215 BC, which when subtracting both Hannibal and Hazdrubal’s army probably gives us around 100,000 men. So the situation is more equal there, but those numbers are highly fickle and dependent on allies.

In theory at least hanabal has shown he is capable of achieving victory in large scale engagements with 2-1 numerical disadvantages (a little under at cannae, a little over at trasimene) even if we assume the carthagnian republics army is in greater but not overwhelmingly so then hanabals innovative tactics may allow him to compensate for numerical disadvantage like it did with the romans

Battle of Cannae - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Battle of Lake Trasimene - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[NedStark]

Well yes, but my point is that Carthage itself doesn't have the power to stop Hannibal from overthrowing the government if he wanted to do so, if he did or not is another matter entirely.
Also let's be honest 99.9999% of governments is corrupt to some extent.

My point is that it took centuries of rapid expansion and deep social changes (which means the government structure designed for a city state was no longer functional) for the Roman Republic to end up with Sulla and Caesar.

 

[Collondi]

In theory at least hanabal has shown he is capable of achieving victory in large scale engagements with 2-1 numerical disadvantages (a little under at cannae, a little over at trasimene) even if we assume the carthagnian republics army is in greater but not overwhelmingly so then hanabals innovative tactics may allow him to compensate for numerical disadvantage like it did with the romans

Battle of Cannae - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Battle of Lake Trasimene - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

That’s a good point, and if he’s skilled enough maybe he bypasses the naval issue by crossing the strait of Gibraltar and marching to Carthage from there. I should clarify that I don’t think Hannibal winning a civil war is implausible, far from it. But what we also know from OTL is a) he was very skilled at making alliances and connections and b) he hated taking risks and preferred to set things up to his advantage ahead of time (not that he never took risks, but tried to avoid it when possible). With that in mind, I think it makes more sense for him to first enter the political arena and try to make alliances in the senate while undermining his enemies. If that fails and he’s still driven into exile, then it’s time to flee to Spain and start preparing the army

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

A victorious Carthage does not mean a destroyed Rome. It would most likely be a conditional peace that Rome would eventually recover from.

If Hannibal tried to go after Carthage's establishment, I wouldn't be surprised if Rome would ally with Carthage and they'd work together to destroy Hannibal.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

A victorious Carthage does not mean a destroyed Rome. It would most likely be a conditional peace that Rome would eventually recover from.

If Hannibal tried to go after Carthage's establishment, I wouldn't be surprised if Rome would ally with Carthage and they'd work together to destroy Hannibal.

Hannibal had sweared to destroy Rome, I don't see why he wouldn't do that.

My point is that it took centuries of rapid expansion and deep social changes (which means the government structure designed for a city state was no longer functional) for the Roman Republic to end up with Sulla and Caesar.

I doubt the Carthaginian central government is powerful enough to oppose him, Carthage couldn't prevent Scipio's landing in North Africa, I don't see why Hannibal couldn't do the same with a little bit of preparation.

 

[NedStark]

I doubt the Carthaginian central government is powerful enough to oppose him, Carthage couldn't prevent Scipio's landing in North Africa, I don't see why Hannibal couldn't do the same with a little bit of preparation

I think you missed my point here: powerful generals making power play against the Senate only happened in OTL Rome when socio-political conflicts reached the breaking point centuries after the Second Punic War.

There is no signs that Hannibal might have been inclined to do such thing, especially when things in Carthage were far from what happened in late Roman Republic.

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Hannibal had sweared to destroy Rome, I don't see why he wouldn't do that.

Because the complete destruction of Rome is highly improbable and a negotiated peace is far more likely and practical.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Because the complete destruction of Rome is highly improbable and a negotiated peace is far more likely and practical.

You mean the Romans who just build another fleet after it was destroyed 3 times would just give up after all of this and negotiate peace? They would do that only in extreme conditions and Hannibal would just seize the opportunity (unless he's on the verge of defeat but then the Romans wouldn't surrender)

I think you missed my point here: powerful generals making power play against the Senate only happened in OTL Rome when socio-political conflicts reached the breaking point centuries after the Second Punic War.

There is no signs that Hannibal might have been inclined to do such thing, especially when things in Carthage were far from what happened in late Roman Republic.

We have no ideas what would Hannibal do after defeating Rome (we also don't know precisely the politics in Carthage), I was simply saying that if he did revolt against Carthage I consider that he would probably win