WI White South Africa grants full independence to all twenty Bantustans 1980 - 1990

What if at any time during 1980 - 1990 South Africa embarks on giving full independence to all 20 Bantustans within its territory and to recognize each one as an independent nation with its own Prime Minister, Parliament and so on regardless of how the international community reacts. Let's say in the increasing unease at the potential collapse of Apartheid South Africa, many within the upper echelons start to believe that the only way to safeguard the status-quo and protect White South Africa is through granting full independence to Black peoples as separate nations. On a somewhat more sinister note such Balkanization of the Black nation would further ensure the stability of White South Africa.

The governments of all Bantustans sign a "memorandum of understanding" with South Africa stipulating the rights and responsibilities of each party:
(1) All former Bantustans shall be treated as fully sovereign African nations with the ability to choose own system of governance, representatives, foreign affairs, and so on.

(2) Each newly independent territory shall ensure that it respects the territorial integrity of South Africa and and any territory committing any aggression against the state of South Africa shall be treated as a sovereign nation declaring war. Military retaliation may be undertaken and/or possible incorporation back into South Africa or administration of Protectorate status.

(3) South Africa shall agree not to intentionally obstruct or hinder the development of any newly created independent territory and to aid its transformation as a sovereign African nation.

(4) South Africa shall agree to do all it can to support the development of any newly independent territory either through economic aid, trade, military means, or ceding of South African territory in order to provide sea access/prevent a new territory becoming an enclave.

(5) Each newly created territory can remain independent or merge with a neighbouring territory and South Africa shall not interfere in any nation's internal matters.

(6) All White South Africans who’d find themselves living in a newly independent Black majority country shall be given the option to be resettled in South Africa and compensated if they desire to move to South Africa.

(7) Blacks remaining within South Africa shall have the option to emigrate to a newly created independent territory or remain within South Africa. However, in the latter case, they shall agree to fully respect and uphold the law and not agitate against the system of Apartheid.

(8) Citizens of newly independent territories shall be allowed to work within South Africa but subject to the same rules of Apartheid as any Black South African.

(9) White Southwest Africa (Windhoek) shall at some point be presented with a three-way Referendum a) Merger with South Africa and full provincial status b) Autonomy within South Africa (retaining their own Prime Minister or a similar arrangement) or c) Total Independence from South Africa.

South Africa 1b.png


Map of new South Africa after separation of Bantustans:
South Africa 3.png


So...
What would be the effect on Apartheid South Africa, could it potentially last much longer up until the 2000s?

Would the independence of these new territories alter/impede the Black Rights movement in Southern Africa and how?

What would be the international reaction? Would any country at all recognize the new territories? Would it help bring Apartheid South Africa back into the international fold to some extent?
 
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(2) South Africa shall agree not to intentionally obstruct or hinder the development of any newly created independent territory bordering South Africa or an enclave of South Africa and the independence of all newly created territories shall be respected at all times.
No. The Bantustans were always South African puppet states. Any Bantustan leader who "got ideas" about civil rights would find himself removed in a coup.
(6) Any Blacks remaining within South Africa shall have the option to emigrate to a newly created independent territory or remain within South Africa. However, in the latter case, they shall agree to fully respect and uphold the system of Apartheid in place and not agitate against the status quo.
Also no. The point of the Bantustans was to ensure South Africa could use blacks as cheap labour while pretending it wasn't "oppressing" them because they were foreign nationals. SA would never have let blacks remain within South Africa because it wanted SA to be an ethnostate for whites.
Would any country at all recognize the new territories?
No, they would be viewed as South African puppet states. Nobody would believe that an enclave of South Africa that relies on South Africa economically was an independent country.
 
No. The Bantustans were always South African puppet states. Any Bantustan leader who "got ideas" about civil rights would find himself removed in a coup.

Also no. The point of the Bantustans was to ensure South Africa could use blacks as cheap labour while pretending it wasn't "oppressing" them because they were foreign nationals. SA would never have let blacks remain within South Africa because it wanted SA to be an ethnostate for whites.

No, they would be viewed as South African puppet states. Nobody would believe that an enclave of South Africa that relies on South Africa economically was an independent country.
Interesting points but I'm suggesting a change of thought within the South African regime that somehow manages to foresee the collapse of Apartheid. A decision is made to grant full independence to all Bantustans in other words treated them no different to any other independent African nation.

"Also no. The point of the Bantustans was to ensure South Africa could use blacks as cheap labour while pretending it wasn't "oppressing" them because they were foreign nationals. SA would never have let blacks remain within South Africa because it wanted SA to be an ethnostate for whites."
Well these would no longer be Bantustans but sovereign nations who'd probably be reliant on South Africa but you're forgetting many of them will be now border African countries other than South Africa. No one would be forcing the citizens of, say, Ovamboland to migrate to South Africa when they could go to Angola, or the government of Boputhatswanaland to become a province of Botswana.

No, they would be viewed as South African puppet states. Nobody would believe that an enclave of South Africa that relies on South Africa economically was an independent country.
But in my suggestion South Africa does all it can to help eliminate 'Bantustan status' including extending territorial borders at the expense of South Africa and providing sea access etc. In essence trying their best to turn them into viable nations.

Yes citizens of these countries will likely still end up working in South Africa but it would be no different to many other similar migrant worker arrangements across the world.
 
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A decision is made to grant full independence to all Bantustans in other words treated them no different to any other independent African nation.
Then they wouldn't be Bantustans. The Bantustans had poor land and were densely populated. If SA wanted the Bantustans to be taken seriously than it would have given individual tribes their land back instead of saying "this land is yours now, we're moving you here, and there's nothing you can do about it".
 
Then they wouldn't be Bantustans. The Bantustans had poor land and were densely populated. If SA wanted the Bantustans to be taken seriously than it would have given individual tribes their land back instead of saying "this land is yours now, we're moving you here, and there's nothing you can do about it".

I am not suggesting they'd be Bantustans, but an attempt to create viable functioning African nations out of existing Bantustans that would still likely provide South Africa with a black workforce but as 'equal partners' if such a relationship can really be equal anywhere in the World.

Individual tribes would now have sovereign nations which would at least be much better than what they had before.
 
I am not suggesting they'd be Bantustans, but an attempt to create viable functioning African nations out of existing Bantustans that would still likely provide South Africa with a black workforce but as 'equal partners' if such a relationship can really be equal anywhere in the World.

Individual tribes would now have sovereign nations which would at least be much better than what they had before.
That requires the SA government to not be extremely racist which I don't think is doable without majority rule.
 
I am not suggesting they'd be Bantustans, but an attempt to create viable functioning African nations out of existing Bantustans that would still likely provide South Africa with a black workforce but as 'equal partners' if such a relationship can really be equal anywhere in the World.

Individual tribes would now have sovereign nations which would at least be much better than what they had before.

“White Supremacist Afrikaners just have to stop being white Supremacist and treat non-whites as ‘equal partners’.”

If they were going to treat black people as equal partners, then they wouldn’t be white supremacist.

Its like people who talk about the Nazis supporting independent Slavic states carved out of theSoviet Union as allies, they would have had a better chance on the Eastern Front. It ignores the fact that hating Slavs and wanting to steal their land was a core part of their ideology.
 
“White Supremacist Afrikaners just have to stop being white Supremacist and treat non-whites as ‘equal partners’.”

If they were going to treat black people as equal partners, then they wouldn’t be white supremacist.

Its like people who talk about the Nazis supporting independent Slavic states carved out of theSoviet Union as allies, they would have had a better chance on the Eastern Front. It ignores the fact that hating Slavs and wanting to steal their land was a core part of their ideology.

But they wouldn't be doing this out of some egalitarian love for Black Africans but to cement the status quo and disintegrate/neutralize any movement for Black Rights.

Maybe "equal partners" was the wrong phrase to use but I meant they'd allow the new countries to run their own affairs, no different to how Apartheid South Africa would've treated Botswana or Angola for example.
 
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But they wouldn't be doing this out of some egalitarian love for Black Africans but to cement the status quo and disintegrate/neutralize any movement for Black Rights.

Maybe "equal partners" was the wrong phrase to use but I meant they'd allow the new countries to run their own affairs, no different to how Apartheid South Africa would've treated Botswana or Angola for example.

So “running their own affairs” like importing weapons from Mozambique and Angola so they can free themselves from the shit reservations they’ve been forced onto?

South Africa invaded Angola and sponsored insurgents groups in their territory. Not really a great example of recognizing sovereignty.
 

Garrison

Donor
But they wouldn't be doing this out of some egalitarian love for Black Africans but to cement the status quo and disintegrate/neutralize any movement for Black Rights.

Maybe "equal partners" was the wrong phrase to use but I meant they'd allow the new countries to run their own affairs, no different to how Apartheid South Africa would've treated Botswana or Angola for example.
And who exactly do you think is going to be fooled by this? Not to mention if Apartheid South Africa deports all their Black populations to these banana republics what are they going to do for labour. What if the Black population resists being sent off to these places?
 
And who exactly do you think is going to be fooled by this? Not to mention if Apartheid South Africa deports all their Black populations to these banana republics what are they going to do for labour. What if the Black population resists being sent off to these places?

Never said they'd deport anyone, but Black South Africans would be given a choice:

a) You can stay where you are as long as you don't agitate against the State
b) You are free to move to any newly formed country you desire and be treated as a migrant worker in South Africa*

*With the latter at least Black people now have 20 countries run by them there they call the shots and zero White South African influence. They can own, buy, sell property. Buy, sell land. Keep livestock. No Apartheid. They can also carry on working in South Africa as citizens of these new countries
 
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Never said they'd deport anyone, but Black South Africans would be given a choice:

a) You can stay where you are as long as you don't agitate against the State
b) You are free to move to any newly formed country you desire and be treated as a migrant worker in South Africa*

*With the latter at least Black people now have 20 countries run by them there they call the shots and zero White South African influence. They can own, buy, sell property. Buy, sell land. Keep livestock. No Apartheid. They can also carry on working in South Africa as citizens of hese new countries

20 third world hell holes with no infrastructure or resources and no money besides working like indentured servants for Afrikaners in the country they just got kicked out of.
 

Garrison

Donor
Never said they'd deport anyone, but Black South Africans would be given a choice:

a) You can stay where you are as long as you don't agitate against the State
b) You are free to move to any newly formed country you desire and be treated as a migrant worker in South Africa*

*With the latter at least Black people now have 20 countries run by them there they call the shots and zero White South African influence. They can own, buy, sell property. Buy, sell land. Keep livestock. No Apartheid. They can also carry on working in South Africa as citizens of these new countries
With the White South Africans deciding what constitutes agitation? And likewise if they were willing to give Black South Africans the kind of rights you are suggesting it wouldn't be Apartheid South Africa. This is about as credible as 'separate but equal' in the USA.
 
Just look at how the bantustans were drawn. They were often non-contagious, following no natural boundaries, and in absurd shapes. The reason for this is simple - bantustans were given black population centres without economic or strategic importance. Giving them ‘full independence’ just means most become ANC revolutionary centres, because they were never a basis for any functioning state.
 
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The bantustans will be reintegrated into South Africa at some point, sooner or later, and Namibia will become independent (also with the bantustans reintegrated into it). By that point, the apartheid system was already becoming untenable as it stood (the brief liberalization of the rand, when they temporarily removed the financial rand system, can be discounted here as it made capital flight that much easier), so granting the bantustans independence can only be a temporary patch for a system that was already falling apart. It would just be the mixed-race and Asian communities that would become more of the public face of the anti-apartheid movement, as well as riots against the apartheid-imposed leaders in the bantustans. Therefore, any post-apartheid solution will involve dismantling and reintegrating the bantustans back into South Africa.
 
That requires the SA government to not be extremely racist which I don't think is doable without majority rule.
How is it not racist for white supremacists to self segregate from blacks by creating independent black states so that the whites can live in majority white states? Sounds pretty racist to me. SA prime minister Verwoerd actually envisaged granting the Bantustans ultimate independence, mainly because he was racist and believed the races should be separate, but he was assassinated and later PMs didn't follow thru because they preferred the cheap labour.
 
What would be the effect on Apartheid South Africa, could it potentially last much longer up until the 2000s?
I'm not sure if it would make this new SA majority white, would it? You have millions of Africans living in Johannesburg and the like. I would say it could easily survive into the 2000's but not much longer, as it would be heavily sanctioned and no one would trade with it because it basically endorses racism.
Would the independence of these new territories alter/impede the Black Rights movement in Southern Africa and how?
The ANC would collapse as most of its supporters would now be in different states. SA would probably crack down on it further, telling them "you could have just emigrated to the former Bantustans where u could have been be free, but u chose to reject this offer and attack us". Anti-apartheid leaders would probably be deported/exiled to the new states, from where they would launch attacks on south Africa, much like Mugabe used Mozambique as a launch pad to attack Rhodesia. The situation would probably be like Northern Ireland during the troubles but on steroids.
What would be the international reaction? Would any country at all recognize the new territories?
The international reaction would be almost completely negative, I doubt the west or soviet bloc would recognize the new countries, maybe small African states would.
Would it help bring Apartheid South Africa back into the international fold to some extent?
Not at all, it would be looked at the same way North Korea is looked at. They would have to be completely economically self sufficient, and they would likely suffer economic collapse. Then white opposition parties would likely win an election pledging to open up and end apartheid. So probably early 2000's i would guess they would fall.
 
How is it not racist for white supremacists to self segregate from blacks by creating independent black states so that the whites can live in majority white states? Sounds pretty racist to me. SA prime minister Verwoerd actually envisaged granting the Bantustans ultimate independence, mainly because he was racist and believed the races should be separate, but he was assassinated and later PMs didn't follow thru because they preferred the cheap labour.
I meant that a SA government treating black people like "equals" would require the SA government not to be run by white supremacists.
 
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