WI: The Inconfidência Mineira succeeded

unnaturalmilk

The Inconfidência Mineira was a movement in the State of Minas Gerais to break off and form a new nation. Among its many proposals it included:
  • Breaking away from Portugal and establish an independent, Republican regime
  • Fund industries to promote industrialization
  • Create an university in Vila Rica (Modern-day Ouro Preto)
  • End the trade monopoly of the Portuguese
  • Adopt conscription to fend off against attacks
  • Establish local parliaments that would be subservient to a regional parliament
 

Galba Otho Vitelius

They need to take over at least Rio de Janeiro as well, to get an outlet to the sea and deny the Portuguese a base to retake the colony.

I'm not sure what the POD is for the Inconfidencia succeeding. The American rebels had a lot of factors in their favor that are absent here, such as the British being over stretched and unable to raise an large army, the sheer size of the place, and Britain having enemies that were willing to help the rebels.
 

Diez Mil Cantos

For this to succeed, I think the discontent against the Portuguese government needs to spread beyond Minas Gerais, whether through early successful battles inspring others to join, or roping in Indigenous tribes sympathetic to the cause.

While some mentioned capturing Rio would be necessary, simply capturing Espirito Santo would give it a way to access prospective support (e.g. the U.S., or Morocco)
 

unnaturalmilk

Galba Otho Vitelius said:
They need to take over at least Rio de Janeiro as well, to get an outlet to the sea and deny the Portuguese a base to retake the colony.

I'm not sure what the POD is for the Inconfidencia succeeding. The American rebels had a lot of factors in their favor that are absent here, such as the British being over stretched and unable to raise an large army, the sheer size of the place, and Britain having enemies that were willing to help the rebels.
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The POD is simply that the Inconfidentes are better prepared and are not betrayed
 

unnaturalmilk

Diez Mil Cantos said:
For this to succeed, I think the discontent against the Portuguese government needs to spread beyond Minas Gerais, whether through early successful battles inspring others to join, or roping in Indigenous tribes sympathetic to the cause.

While some mentioned capturing Rio would be necessary, simply capturing Espirito Santo would give it a way to access prospective support (e.g. the U.S., or Morocco)
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Makes sense, it would be way easier to conquer Espírito Santo
 

unnaturalmilk

Diez Mil Cantos said:
For this to succeed, I think the discontent against the Portuguese government needs to spread beyond Minas Gerais, whether through early successful battles inspring others to join, or roping in Indigenous tribes sympathetic to the cause.

While some mentioned capturing Rio would be necessary, simply capturing Espirito Santo would give it a way to access prospective support (e.g. the U.S., or Morocco)
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Do you think the US would support the Inconfidentes?
 

unprincipled peter

Donor
unnaturalmilk said:
Do you think the US would support the Inconfidentes?
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The USA is barely born in 1789. The most they can do is officially recognize MG. That alone means nothing. They are in no position to actively aid the rebellion. in 1789, they're lucky they're a nation and a long way from being relevant in world politics.

I can't think of anyone who would actively aid the rebels. Britain and France are exhausted, and have no beef with Portugal. Spain is somewhat exhausted, too, but might give some support, just to cause trouble. They had just settled some stuff in their squabble with Portugal mid-late 1770s, and were looking to mend fences in the 80's. Overall, I think the rebels have to do it on their own.

They need the coast to deny it to Portugal, and for access to world markets post independence.
 

unnaturalmilk

How long would slavery have lasted in this Minas Gerais? (Assuming a wank where Minas conquers São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo after a massive revolt)
 

unnaturalmilk

Nivek said:
Of course it would Tupac Amaruc was just a few years ago.
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Yeah, earlier Latino independence will take place ITTL
Nivek said:
It think till transatlantic slave trading got banned and Britain start to put pressure on it
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That's...pretty good, that means that slavery would end by the 1830s, 1840s, meaning that the Inconfidentes wouldn't have a slave-based economy and could've industrialized sooner, attracting European immigration while having a large African middle class (Assuming that the Inconfidentes don't copy the Southern US way of race relations), which is what would've probably happened in OTL Brazil if we abolished slavery sooner
 

Nivek

unnaturalmilk said:
That's...pretty good, that means that slavery would end by the 1830s, 1840s, meaning that the Inconfidentes wouldn't have a slave-based economy and could've industrialized sooner, attracting European immigration while having a large African middle class (Assuming that the Inconfidentes don't copy the Southern US way of race relations), which is what would've probably happened in OTL Brazil if we abolished slavery sooner
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It would be very Similar to race relationships in Colombia and other regions, not perfect but far better OTL Brazil or USA, like poorer and middle classes would interact with black people a lot and upper class would be more class than pure race(of course race would be a factor too), I can see following a path similar to Colombia that declared free of birth in 20's and fully abolished it in 48
 

unnaturalmilk

Nivek said:
It would be very Similar to race relationships in Colombia and other regions, not perfect but far better OTL Brazil or USA, like poorer and middle classes would interact with black people a lot and upper class would be more class than pure race(of course race would be a factor too), I can see following a path similar to Colombia that declared free of birth in 20's and fully abolished it in 48
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True, that sounds way better than OTL
 
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