How do you think history would be different if the EU decides not to accept countries like Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Croatia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia?
How do you think the political climate of these countries, and the Western EU states would be different if these countries were outright denied for acceptance into the EU from Day One?
Here in Hungary at least, I remember a certain degree of antagonism towards the EU onwards from the day we joined in the May of 2004.
The EU-flag was hung on our school building when we were 13-14 year olds, and there were already fellow students urging us to spit on the EU-flag.
When we entered Geography class, our teacher told us: "First the USSR, then now the EU. We step out of a pile of a cow shit, then we step into another!"
Well, what happens instead of EU membership for these countries? Are the Czech republic, Hungary, Poland etc all treated like Serbia and Russia have in OTL? Does EU aid and cheap American loans still flood Eastern and Central Europe, only accompanied by a different political approach? And does the EU flirt with these countries before spurning them, like Turkey in OTL, or does the EU make clear from day 1 that they are not taking in any formerly Communist entrants?
The answer to these questions have a big impact on what happens.
For example, to re-fit the economies of Eastern Europe was something that took billions of Euros, Marks and Dollars, if formerly Communist Europe doesn't get the money to refit and upgrade, it all turns into something like Russia is today, with the neo-liberal advice of the Americans being taken and combined with the political and economic power of the manager-class from the Communist days and the whole region gets to enjoy the worst features of their Communist-era economic system combined with the worst features of Capitalism. Also sorts of "interesting" political events doubtless follow as a result.
If there are no EU subsidies, but there are cheap American (and French and German and British) loans, then some sort of short term economic renaissance follows the fall of Communism, as per OTL, but when the next major economic crisis happens things to go worse than OTL. Again, lots of ways that could go.
If the EU flirts with Central and Eastern European countries, but ultimately rejects them as happened with Turkey maybe there'd be a successful push to create an East European economic union, including Turkey which would turn into an ideological component to the West European Union that rejected them all.
Hungary probably does end up looking better. At least according to my limited understanding of what's gone on there in recent years (after the 90s, my knowledge of Hungarian history goes from excellent to poor) which is basically that the EU failed to be properly diligent about how the subsidies being poured into Hungary were spent. But there are plenty of ways this could get far worse than OTL too.
fasquardon
