WI: Portugal became the dominant Kingdom in the Iberian peninsula around the XIII Century

Let's suppose Portugal manages to enter a personal union with Leon instead of what happened in OTL. I won't discuss how plausible this scenario is. I'm more curious to know about what would happen specifically during the Age of Discovery and the colonization of America.

Here is a map to what I think the peninsula might have looked like in 1300 for reference:

imagem_2023-04-20_161814244.png


I think it's very possible Portugal discovers America (Brazil) around the same time or sooner than in OTL. Considering knowledge on how the colonization of Brazil went on initially (Hereditary Captaincies), what do you think the history of the American continent would look like?
 

Grey Wolf

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While I can see a Portugal like this, I don't see a North-South Castile, instead I would expecxt it to either be eaten up by Navarre in the North and Aragon in the South, or to do one and aggregate a larger state in the other - e.g. potentialy a Southern state with Valenxia
 
If IOTL with a somehow small size Portugal already achieved a somehow big empire and Portuguese has over 230 million speakers, imagine that with all these extra lands, especially in Andalusia (Seville).
 
While I can see a Portugal like this, I don't see a North-South Castile, instead I would expecxt it to either be eaten up by Navarre in the North and Aragon in the South, or to do one and aggregate a larger state in the other - e.g. potentialy a Southern state with Valenxia

I don't really think so - with a POD in the early 13th century, i think that Navarra might get away with recovering La Bureba (which was a disputed area for quite a while) or even La Rioja in a best-case scenario, but taking a considerable portion of Castille proper might be beyond them by that point. Although a non-inheritance of León, and less opportunity to expand around Extremadura or Seville might cause the Castillians to concentrate their efforts a little more on the area Murcia, Denia and Valencia, possibly resulting in a slightly smaller Aragon.

Let's suppose Portugal manages to enter a personal union with Leon instead of what happened in OTL. I won't discuss how plausible this scenario is. I'm more curious to know about what would happen specifically during the Age of Discovery and the colonization of America.

Here is a map to what I think the peninsula might have looked like in 1300 for reference:

View attachment 826443

I think it's very possible Portugal discovers America (Brazil) around the same time or sooner than in OTL. Considering knowledge on how the colonization of Brazil went on initially (Hereditary Captaincies), what do you think the history of the American continent would look like?

Is it my impression or Ceuta fell a hundred years in advance?
 
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I think it's very possible Portugal discovers America (Brazil) around the same time or sooner than in OTL. Considering knowledge on how the colonization of Brazil went on initially (Hereditary Captaincies), what do you think the history of the American continent would look like?
Well, I'm going to divide it into different areas of activity. In Europe Portugal will try to unify the rest of Iberia to form Spain, Aragon and Navara will not be able to resist in the long term, I would say that until 1700 Iberia will be unified. Apart from that relationship with england and france will be complicated, in otl england and portugal remained allies but one side being inferior (portugal). Portugal of that size is not going to be the lowest in the relationship, so I think the relationship will go sour. Other than that France will be much stronger without Spain to hold the nation.
In America it will depend on whether Portugal will focus on native empires or not. If yes, I think France colonizes Brazil and Portugal conquers the native kingdoms. If not, the native kingdoms will either be conquered by someone (France maybe) or be vassalised. (it is also possible for portugal to basically ignore the americas and go all in in asia having only one or 2 small colonies in america)
In Asia, Portugal will have more wars than in OTL, trying to have total control of the Asian seas. With the extra manpower I think portugal will basically attack, loot and abuse every asian nation they can get (basically all of asia except china). The size of the empire in this region will depend on the competence of the local leaders. But it will be big.

what i think will be iberia in 1700
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Asia
1682026999541.png

I don't know how it's going to be in America, to be honest it could be many different things, so I didn't make a map..
 
Well, I'm going to divide it into different areas of activity. In Europe Portugal will try to unify the rest of Iberia to form Spain, Aragon and Navara will not be able to resist in the long term, I would say that until 1700 Iberia will be unified. Apart from that relationship with england and france will be complicated, in otl england and portugal remained allies but one side being inferior (portugal). Portugal of that size is not going to be the lowest in the relationship, so I think the relationship will go sour. Other than that France will be much stronger without Spain to hold the nation.
In America it will depend on whether Portugal will focus on native empires or not. If yes, I think France colonizes Brazil and Portugal conquers the native kingdoms. If not, the native kingdoms will either be conquered by someone (France maybe) or be vassalised. (it is also possible for portugal to basically ignore the americas and go all in in asia having only one or 2 small colonies in america)
In Asia, Portugal will have more wars than in OTL, trying to have total control of the Asian seas. With the extra manpower I think portugal will basically attack, loot and abuse every asian nation they can get (basically all of asia except china). The size of the empire in this region will depend on the competence of the local leaders. But it will be big.

what i think will be iberia in 1700
View attachment 826456
Asia
View attachment 826465
I don't know how it's going to be in America, to be honest it could be many different things, so I didn't make a map..
Thanks for your input, but I'm going to say too that I don't think any European power would be able to penetrate India to that level so early, but your point helped me visualize a bit more of this TL.
Also, I'm curious to know. If Spain was able to hold France, why do you think that isn't going to be the case with this TL Portugal?
 
Let's suppose Portugal manages to enter a personal union with Leon instead of what happened in OTL. I won't discuss how plausible this scenario is. I'm more curious to know about what would happen specifically during the Age of Discovery and the colonization of America.

Here is a map to what I think the peninsula might have looked like in 1300 for reference:

View attachment 826443

I think it's very possible Portugal discovers America (Brazil) around the same time or sooner than in OTL. Considering knowledge on how the colonization of Brazil went on initially (Hereditary Captaincies), what do you think the history of the American continent would look like?
Why is larger Portugal still that much interested in expanding by sea? I would expect this kind of country to be a fair bit more interested in land matters, instead, even OTL Portugal had a shot at wanting to take chunks of Morocco for itself despite no territorial contiguity - here the pull would undoubtedly be stronger because of opportunity and pressure from the landed nobilty it has taken over from merging with Leon.
 
Thanks for your input, but I'm going to say too that I don't think any European power would be able to penetrate India to that level so early, but your point helped me visualize a bit more of this TL.
Also, I'm curious to know. If Spain was able to hold France, why do you think that isn't going to be the case with this TL Portugal?

Also, in regards to France and England, there's also the matter of how dynastic relations would go in Portugal and Castille - the Portuguese-English alliance began under the context of the Castillian Civil War (and that would fall under the context of the Hundred Years' War too), when England supported Pedro I and France supported Enrique of Trastámara, and after his death, the Plantagenets made sure to stake claims of their own on Castille by marrying Pedro's daughters to Edward III's brothers, and it was under that context that they began allying with Portugal, and the pattern of a Anglo-Portuguese alliance to counterbalance a Franco-Castillian alliance would hold through the Portuguese succession war and until 1388, when John of Gaunt abandoned his Castillian claim and married his daughter to the future Enrique III.

Things may well turn out quite differently in a timeline when Portugal inherits León.
 
Also, in regards to France and England, there's also the matter of how dynastic relations would go in Portugal and Castille - the Portuguese-English alliance began under the context of the Castillian Civil War (and that would fall under the context of the Hundred Years' War too), when England supported Pedro I and France supported Enrique of Trastámara, and after his death, the Plantagenets made sure to stake claims of their own on Castille by marrying Pedro's daughters to Edward III's brothers, and it was under that context that they began allying with Portugal, and the pattern of a Anglo-Portuguese alliance to counterbalance a Franco-Castillian alliance would hold through the Portuguese succession war and until 1388, when John of Gaunt abandoned his Castillian claim and married his daughter to the future Enrique III.

Things may well turn out quite differently in a timeline when Portugal inherits León.
Perhaps Portugal could support Pedro I instead and have a claim of their own on Castille. It should set a precedent for a future personal union between Portugal and Castille in TTL.
 
Perhaps Portugal could support Pedro I instead and have a claim of their own on Castille.

That actually did happen OTL - Pedro I of Portugal did support Pedro of Castille, although lukewarmly, and Fernando I also claimed Castille during 1369-1382 since he probably was the closest legitimate relative of the Castillian Pedro (since Enrique of Trastámara and his brothers were all ilegitimate and the legitimacy of Pedro's children was questionable) available, being descended from Sancho IV through his mother.
 
Let's suppose Portugal manages to enter a personal union with Leon instead of what happened in OTL. I won't discuss how plausible this scenario is. I'm more curious to know about what would happen specifically during the Age of Discovery and the colonization of America.

Here is a map to what I think the peninsula might have looked like in 1300 for reference:

View attachment 826443

I think it's very possible Portugal discovers America (Brazil) around the same time or sooner than in OTL. Considering knowledge on how the colonization of Brazil went on initially (Hereditary Captaincies), what do you think the history of the American continent would look like?
With Portugual controlling that much land and I'm assuming eventually Lusitanize it, expect their holds in Brazil to be much bigger as they would have ample colonists to send over, we could even see a case where the entirety of South America becomes a Portuguese colony of sorts if they really focus on it.

This has some interesting effects on Europe too, a Aragon who doesn't get a union with big Castile and a Navarre that doesn't fall to Spanish control will essentially both be gobbled up by France that speaking of which, will have the time of their lives occupying Milan, Naples, the Balearics, Sardinia and most of Lombardy,not to mention eventually getting the whole of the Burgundian Inheritance into the realm while being essentially the major power in Europe.
 
With Portugual controlling that much land and I'm assuming eventually Lusitanize it, expect their holds in Brazil to be much bigger as they would have ample colonists to send over, we could even see a case where the entirety of South America becomes a Portuguese colony of sorts if they really focus on it.

This has some interesting effects on Europe too, a Aragon who doesn't get a union with big Castile and a Navarre that doesn't fall to Spanish control will essentially both be gobbled up by France that speaking of which, will have the time of their lives occupying Milan, Naples, the Balearics, Sardinia and most of Lombardy,not to mention eventually getting the whole of the Burgundian Inheritance into the realm while being essentially the major power in Europe.
I'll keep those points in mind while making my timeline. A bigger France like that would certainly change European history, though don't you also think that perhaps this buff Portugal wouldn't like Aragon getting swallowed like that? It could perhaps give grounds for a Luso-Aragonese Alliance or even a coalition against France? The Hundred Years war is just on the doorstep after all, it might still spread to Iberia like in OTL somehow. There is also the chance that Aragon may be divided between the two powers too, like pointed out above, I guess... What do you think of it?
 
I'll keep those points in mind while making my timeline. A bigger France like that would certainly change European history, though don't you also think that perhaps this buff Portugal wouldn't like Aragon getting swallowed like that? It could perhaps give grounds for a Luso-Aragonese Alliance or even a coalition against France? The Hundred Years war is just on the doorstep after all, it might still spread to Iberia like in OTL somehow. There is also the chance that Aragon may be divided between the two powers too, like pointed out above, I guess... What do you think of it?
Divided between the two is the most likely choice, even a bigger Portugal wouldn't want to go against France, so Portugal getting most of the land while France gets Catalonia and some extra bits areas alongside the islands is what most likely happens, Portugal was very much aloof to Europe in general with some exceptions, so they would focus more on exploration and wash their hands of whatever massive war is going on Europe
 
Portugal have more people to send to the colonies. The territories will be "lusificate". I think it's an interesting take to think about Portugal and Castile in a single union before the start of the age of exploration, led by Portugal that will eventually unify the two countries in a single, portuguese-led Spain. The powers are limitless: Castillian and Leonese will be replaced by Portuguese and Mozarabic and Portugal will have a massive population to send to its colonies. Maybe no conquest of the Inca? Portuguese Florida? Portuguese Louisiana? Portuguese California? Who knows...
 
Portugal was very much aloof to Europe in general with some exceptions, so they would focus more on exploration and wash their hands of whatever massive war is going on Europe
Would that still be true with them as the dominant kingdom of the Iberian peninsula?
 
though don't you also think that perhaps this buff Portugal wouldn't like Aragon getting swallowed like that? It could perhaps give grounds for a Luso-Aragonese Alliance or even a coalition against France?
I tend to agree with @Kurd Gossemer , a very striking feature of Portugal is its ignorance of European issues in favor of the rest of the world. Probably portugal makes a deal with france, with iberia as a whole going to them and the rest of italy going to france (maybe portugal will demand some islands like sicily but will ignore the rest of italy for sure)
The Hundred Years war is just on the doorstep after all, it might still spread to Iberia like in OTL somehow.
maybe, but i don't see england or france wanting to pull the iberian powers into this war.
so Portugal getting most of the land while France gets Catalonia and some extra bits areas alongside the islands is what most likely happens
I tend to think that Portugal would like to have borders in the mountain range to better protect itself. But perhaps a French alliance would calm this issue with Portugal.
Mozarabic and Portugal will have a massive population to send to its colonies. Maybe no conquest of the Inca? Portuguese Florida? Portuguese Louisiana? Portuguese California? Who knows...
This will impact things a lot, portugal conquering the native empire opens brazil to french colonization. The same with the non-conquest of these empires, opening space for France to colonize these empires. How and where colonization will take place will greatly impact the current and future balance of power.
 
Would that still be true with them as the dominant kingdom of the Iberian peninsula?
they perhaps tried to colonize the morocco region in the era of exploration to continue the reconquest. they tried it on otl, with a lot more manpower i think it's quite possible that they succeed (partial at least)
 
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