WI: No Second Balkan War?

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What if Bulgaria and Serbia had not gradually seen a souring of relations during the First Balkan War, planting the seeds for the second conflict? I’m relatively unknowledgeable about the conflict, but one possible PoD from Wikipedia seems to be the Bulgarian censor not cutting mention of the Serbian participation in the capture of Adrianople from public record, which IOTL caused a major diplomatic scuffle that eventually led to the Second Balkan War.

I know the Bulgarian-Serbian conflict was not the only reason behind the second war—Bulgaria wanted more of Greek Macedonia, for one thing—so is there a different PoD that would work better? If not, what would the effects be of the specific PoD mentioned above?

BIG EDIT: Can this be moved to After 1900? Whoops, lol
 
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Not sure if you can avoid the Second Balkan War. Odds are if Franz still gets killed and WWI starts, the Ottomans might go for a better border in Thrace. Especially with Enver Pasha in power. And that is if Bulgaria accepts that they won't get more land in Macedonia. Because unless the Russians are ready to invade Bulgaria in 1913 there is a little chance Bulgaria goes for peace.
 
OTL Reasons for 2nd Balkan War:

1. Serbia was denied the agreed upon (with Bulgaria) port in Albania by A-H intervention
2. More of Macedonia was occupied by Serbia than agreed upon before the war and after 1. they wanted compensation here.
3. Bulgaria was still fighting the Ottomans in Thrace while Serbia finished his part which weakened Bulgarian position considerably
4. There never was an Agreement between Bulgaria and Greece about the fate of Saloniki. Both wanted it but couldnt agree before the war.
5. Romania could not expand because it was no longer bordering the Ottomans. However they were aware of the weak position of Bulgaria and demanded southern Dobruja from them.
6. Bulgaria couldnt bring himself to give up any of his claims. He regarded all the formentioned territories as Bulgarians and even the worked out border before the war with Serbia was regarded as huge compromise on their part. Now they would have needed to give up terriotries to Romanians and Serbians and Greeks as well - or at least some of them.

So as basically all their neighbours agreed - except the ottomans whom they were at war with - to enlarge themselfs on the cost of Bulgaria or Bulgarian claims I dont think you can avoid a second Balkan war. If Bulgaria had given up on some of the claims than you could reshuffle the alliances but even that is unlikly.

To sum it up: to avoid a second Balkan war there are 3 possibilities.
1. There is no 1st Balkan War
2. First Balkan War is won by the Ottomans
3. If the First Balkan War exhaust all participant to an extent they dont have the will and strenght to start fighting over the loot right away.

If the Balkan States won relativly easily per OTL than a second Balkan war is inevitable.
 
There were a lot of countries all ready to "dogpile" on Bulgaria, but it was Bulgaria which initiated the fighting. If Ferdinand is more cautious, which of the others would attack?

Suppose none of them do...

If WW I still begins as OTL - Serbia is much weaker. Turkey holds almost nothing in Europe, just the immediate vicinity of Constantinople and the Gallipoli peninsula. Also, Turkey in OTL managed to offset the humiliating defeat in the First Balkan War by a successful campaign in the Second Balkan War to regain Thrace. If no SBW, Turkey would be less confident about entering WW I. Also, Turkey would be more worried about what could happen to Constantinople: if the Allies assisted Bulgaria, the city could fall easily. Then also, could Turkey hold Gallipoli as an isolated exclave against an Allied attack like OTL's?
 
OTL Reasons for 2nd Balkan War:

1. Serbia was denied the agreed upon (with Bulgaria) port in Albania by A-H intervention
2. More of Macedonia was occupied by Serbia than agreed upon before the war and after 1. they wanted compensation here.
3. Bulgaria was still fighting the Ottomans in Thrace while Serbia finished his part which weakened Bulgarian position considerably
4. There never was an Agreement between Bulgaria and Greece about the fate of Saloniki. Both wanted it but couldnt agree before the war.
5. Romania could not expand because it was no longer bordering the Ottomans. However they were aware of the weak position of Bulgaria and demanded southern Dobruja from them.
6. Bulgaria couldnt bring himself to give up any of his claims. He regarded all the formentioned territories as Bulgarians and even the worked out border before the war with Serbia was regarded as huge compromise on their part. Now they would have needed to give up terriotries to Romanians and Serbians and Greeks as well - or at least some of them.

So as basically all their neighbours agreed - except the ottomans whom they were at war with - to enlarge themselfs on the cost of Bulgaria or Bulgarian claims I dont think you can avoid a second Balkan war. If Bulgaria had given up on some of the claims than you could reshuffle the alliances but even that is unlikly.

To sum it up: to avoid a second Balkan war there are 3 possibilities.
1. There is no 1st Balkan War
2. First Balkan War is won by the Ottomans
3. If the First Balkan War exhaust all participant to an extent they dont have the will and strenght to start fighting over the loot right away.

If the Balkan States won relativly easily per OTL than a second Balkan war is inevitable.

Going into the details of the problems with the Treaty of London—what if A-H were unable to intervene and force Serbia to give up an Albanian port? That was their justification for taking more of Macedonia, right?

I can see that Bulgaria going to war with Greece, Romania, and the Ottomans is hard to avoid, but what if Serbia and Bulgaria managed to cling to an agreement? So there’s still a SBW, but one where Serbia sits out or even goes after Greek Epirus on the Bulgarian side?
 
I think something as simple as Romania occupying Dobruja during the first war could remind the Bulgarians of what a precarious situation they were in and wouldn't end up breaking their pact with Serbia and Greece. It was the Bulgarian King and the military who broke the pact so they could change their minds depending on the how good or bad context is for them.

That doesn't the mean there wouldn't be a 2nd Balkan War but it wouldn't be the war that took place in OTL. What could end up happening is everyone just arming themselves to the teeth and waiting for the situation to change. Like WW1 which was basically the 3rd Balkan War in a regional context. It is easy enough to have the 2nd Balkan War and WW1 happen simultaneously. One of the implication of that would be the Ottomans in the Entente though.
 
Going into the details of the problems with the Treaty of London—what if A-H were unable to intervene and force Serbia to give up an Albanian port? That was their justification for taking more of Macedonia, right?

I can see that Bulgaria going to war with Greece, Romania, and the Ottomans is hard to avoid, but what if Serbia and Bulgaria managed to cling to an agreement? So there’s still a SBW, but one where Serbia sits out or even goes after Greek Epirus on the Bulgarian side?

Serbia not acquiring a port was the cornerstone of Austrian Balkan policy and a bare minimum they demanded. You need some serious POD to change this.

But even if Serbia gots a big chunk of northern Albania and a port they are in too good a position vis a vis Bulgaria. Things arent settled, the Bulgarians are occupied in Thrace fighting the Ottomans and significant parts of Macedonia promised to Bulgaria before the war under Serbian occupation. I dont think they would have resisted the temptation.

I think something as simple as Romania occupying Dobruja during the first war could remind the Bulgarians of what a precarious situation they were in and wouldn't end up breaking their pact with Serbia and Greece. It was the Bulgarian King and the military who broke the pact so they could change their minds depending on the how good or bad context is for them.

That doesn't the mean there wouldn't be a 2nd Balkan War but it wouldn't be the war that took place in OTL. What could end up happening is everyone just arming themselves to the teeth and waiting for the situation to change. Like WW1 which was basically the 3rd Balkan War in a regional context. It is easy enough to have the 2nd Balkan War and WW1 happen simultaneously. One of the implication of that would be the Ottomans in the Entente though.

The pact with Serbia was impossible to maintain because without some serious POD Austria would always prevent a Serbian port and that was part of the pre war agreement between Serbia and Bulgaria. And Bulgaria couldnt break an agreement with Greece as it didnt exist - they tried but could never agree on the territorial distribution before the war. Greece had a pact with Serbia and not with Bulgaria.

Serbia and Greece decided during the first war that they want a joint border and that was already a violation of the serb-bulgarian treaty by Serbia.

We also havent mentioned 1 factor yet: the Russians. The serbians and bulgraians couldnt really agree about Macedonia pre-war. So the compromise they found and that was in the agreement in regards of Macedonia was that the south east goes to Bulgaria, the North west to Serbia, and the fate of the middle will be decided by the Tsar after the war. The Russians were the traditional allies of Bulgaria however during this conflict they favoured Serbia in this question. Another slep to Bulgaria and significant in turning them towards the Central Powers in WWI.
 

Vuu

Banned
Simple, wait for the Russian mediation. Bulgarians were spooked that they'd get fucked over and attacked, a very stupid decision seeing that it's other neighbors were pretty hungry for clay

I'd say get rid of Austria sometime prior. Peace in the Balkans pretty much instantly
 

gurgu

Banned
i have a theory, but is based on a more strategic Ferdinand I( one of most loved Bulgarian king but a bit noob on diplomacy):
WI begin after the end of the first Balkan war(BW):
-Serbia wants more territories since AH denied Albania
-Bulgaria want Salonika which is occupied from Greece
-OE is a dog liking it's wound waiting to strike back
-Romania want the silistra fortress

Ferdinand I offers Serbia to acknowledge them the occupied territories in Macedonia in exchange of help/support against Greece for Salonika meanwhile, to avoid a second front from a back stab/ revenge from Romania and OE offers to the first the control of silistra for help in case of Ottoman attack. Also Ferdinand send a diplomat to the Russian czar saying he officially renounces to his dreams of a Bulgarian Constantinople, small improvement of the Bulgarian/Russian relations ripped after the first BW.
Both Serbia and Romania accept and basically the second Balkan league is formed while the first one is still composed from Greece and Montenegro( Greece fearing a betray manages to only keep Montenegro in the alliance while Albania doesn't care, the have an AH guarantee).
29 June 1913: Bulgaria Demand the city of Salonika from Greece since Bulgaria did more in the previous war with the Serbians supporting the request, Greece obviously refuses and has already placed his army (150k )on the border with almost a third near the city.
30 June: half of the Serbian army(110k) is placed on the Montenegrin border without attacking, the army doesn't want to lose precious troops fighting partisan an the enemy army (12k) on hostile territory made majorly of mountain paths. The other half of the army is sent with half of the Bulgarian army ( 250k) while the other half is split in 2 groups: 1 of 200k on the chatalja line and the other 50 guarding the Aegean coast from Greece naval invasion.
2 July : the war begin, the Greek army is greatly outnumbered 150k troops against the Bulgar-Serb forces(360k) which are more than twice the size.
5 July : the Greek army resisting but the difference in numbers is to high while the Montenegro army can't attack o help, blocked in their main land.
6 July : the OE tries to get revenge by declaring war and hoping for the Romanian army to back stab Bulgaria for Dobruja
7 July : the Romanians honoring the secret treaty made half a month ago declares his aid for the Bulgarians with Carl I declaring to the press : " our fellow Bulgarian Friends are once again attacked from the oppressing Turks, we won't sit and look but help them against this menace", follows a formal declaration of war against the ottomans but not on the Greeks.
13 July: seeing no other option after losing almost 50k troops Greece surrenders followed from Montenegro
13 July: after some attempts to breach the line ottomans can't try anymore since the Romanian army has joined the Bulgaria army making a total of 600k troops against the 300k Turks
14 July: the Bulgarians with the aid of the Romanian ally starts the catalja offensive
15 July: ottomans are defeated and lost 40k troops, they retreat toward Constantinople, the Balkan forces stay on the line and don't chase them, knowing that an attack toward the city worlds desire would anger the great powers
16 July : Salonika treaty, Greece will recognize the Bulgarian control over the city, also the border with the Bulgarian will be from alexandreia( 50km east Salonika) to ohrid all territories with a good presence of Bulgarians, and Greece renounce to their claims over the region, meanwhile Serbia officially seizes control over north/west halt of Macedonia, and Ohrid due to it's historical importance will become a free city under both Serbian/Bulgarian control
17 July: treaty of Constantinople, ottomans will pay war reparation to Bulgaria and renounce to any claim over Adrianople( odrin in Bulgarian) while Romania takes the silistra fortress as promised, since there weren't any attempts to take the ottoman capital the great powers can't interfere anymore since Russia is already making pressure to leave the Balkans on their own( relation with Serbia are great as in OTL and not bad with Bulgaria).
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with this ATL Balkan war we can see good relation between Bulgarian and Serbians while Greeks and ottomans will grow in revanchism, changing a bit the ww1 Balkan:
same start of the great war but Bulgaria and Romania would likely aid Serbia as member of the Balkan league while Montenegro and Greece would join CP with greeks trying to recover Solnik( Bulgarian name of Salonika) and the OE going for more European holdings( and the other African territories)


stating this a s possible alternative outcome i still don't know id Italy will join the CP or the entente+Balkan league 2.0

any correction will be appreciate, i used the military number list on Wikipedia about OTL second BW https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Balkan_War
 
I seem to recall reading that if the Balkan allies don't turn on each other there was a real chance of them capturing Constantinople. That would have been a huge change.
 
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