WI: No June Days Uprising in France?


Following the ousting of Louis Phillipe and the July Monarchy from France in 1848, a provisional Republican government was established. Long story short, the government closed down the socialistic “National Workshops” and generally took a centre/centre-right stance, displeasing the strong radical leftist movements inside Paris. This all culminated in the June Days Uprising where workers took to the streets in an attempt to overthrow the Provisional Government. General Louis-Eugène Cavaignac, Minister of War, was granted dictatorial powers over the city and brutally suppressed the revolt after days of urban fighting. This neutered the French left and, in the words of Mike Duncan, “clipped them to their roots.”

Instead of launching the likely doomed uprising, what if they didn’t and remained a fairly strong force in the new government? Would this affect the writing of the Constitution (including the hotly debated “right to work) Would this affect the near close decision to declare war on Austria over aiding the Venetian Republicans? Would it even prevent Louis Napoleon from winning the Presidency and establishing the Second Empire?

In OTL, Cavaignac was the tiebreaker in an extremely close vote to go to war with the Austrians, so I think that the most interesting divergence here is a likely war over Italian Republicanism. The question is, would this spiral into a general European war like many Conservatives at the time feared?

The presidential elections of 1848, assuming all continued as OTL without the uprising, would likely see the left pit Alexandre Ledru-Rollin against François-Vincent Raspail. Ledru-Rollin, being more moderate, I think would probably fare better and ultimately have a much stronger showing than OTL against Cavaignac and Bonaparte.
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