WI Mary I of England dies before Jane Grey is executed?

Jane was deposed and arrested on 19 July 1553, but was not executed until 12 February 1554, after Wyatt's Rebellion (in which her father and uncle were involved).

WI Mary dies in the interim?

First, Mary might die of natural causes or some innocent accident. This was unlikely but not impossible.

Second, Mary might die in the course of Wyatt's Rebellion - perhaps assassinated by a Protestant extremist who wanted to make sure that England was not under Catholic rule,

Mary's acknowledged successor at this time is Elizabeth. I can't see anyone saying that Jane should be un-deposed. But what becomes of Jane?

Elizabeth might execute her anyway as a once and potentially future usurper, especially in the second scenario.

On the other hand, is Jane any kind of a threat to Elizabeth? The Wyatt conspirators, even her father and uncle, didn't suggest her restoration, whereas they did discuss elevating Elizabeth. So it would appear Jane's "royal ambitions" were dead.

If Elizabeth pardons and releases Jane, what is her status? She was crowned; it would be kind of awkward to have a former sovereign walking around. And she is also still in the line of succession. Even if Edward VI's will is disregarded (which it must be if Elizabeth succeeds), she still comes ahead of Mary Queen of Scots under Henry VIII's Act of Succession.

If Jane is spared, and behaves herself, and Elizabeth remains unmarried, then maybe ten or fifteen years down the road, might Elizabeth turn to Jane (or Jane's son) for her heir? Of course this raises the question of Jane's husband. Did Jane become truly fond of Guildford? Or would the marriage be annulled as soon as she got out of prison? Or if Elizabeth knows Jane wants to be rid of Guildford, and if the prospect of Guildford as Prince Consort or King jure uxoris is a major obstacle to Jane becoming heir, just abridge him when convenient.

Does any of this make any sense at all?
 
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Mary's acknowledged successor at this time is Elizabeth. I can't see anyone saying that Jane should be un-deposed. But what becomes of Jane?
I don’t think she had many supporters at this time so she will probably be kept in captivity and excuted if she proved a threat. Her sisters will also be on a much tighter leash.
Elizabeth might execute her anyway as a once and potentially future usurper, especially in the second scenario.
I doubt she’d do it right off the bat, that makes her look bad. She had to wait before doing that.
On the other hand, is Jane any kind of a threat to Elizabeth?
As aforementioned I don’t think Jane had many supporters left so she’s most likely safe. Though she will probably be executed later down the line.
 
Jane was too much connected with northumberland, who was a hated figure. And she herself had no desire to be queen so I don’t think she’ll be much, if any, of a problem. Elizabeth would likely be able to take the crown with little trouble. Talks were already underway for Philip of Spain’s marriage to Mary so I imagine he would make a proposal to Elizabeth (which would be summarily rejected).

jane and guildford probably remain married and live out their lives quietly as lord and lady Dudley, probably have at least two or three surviving children. I imagine that Elizabeth would look to their offspring/descendants when time comes for her to pick an heir, and Robert Dudley is certainly going to lobby for his nieces and nephews.
 
Jane was too much connected with northumberland, who was a hated figure. And she herself had no desire to be queen so I don’t think she’ll be much, if any, of a problem. Elizabeth would likely be able to take the crown with little trouble. Talks were already underway for Philip of Spain’s marriage to Mary so I imagine he would make a proposal to Elizabeth (which would be summarily rejected).

jane and guildford probably remain married and live out their lives quietly as lord and lady Dudley, probably have at least two or three surviving children. I imagine that Elizabeth would look to their offspring/descendants when time comes for her to pick an heir, and Robert Dudley is certainly going to lobby for his nieces and nephews.
I doubt Elizabeth would let them run free. In OTL she was very concerned about her image as a bastard and was fairly paranoid. They’ll be probably kept under house arrest. She was also afraid of losing her throne too.
 
I doubt Elizabeth would let them run free. In OTL she was very concerned about her image as a bastard and was fairly paranoid. They’ll be probably kept under house arrest. She was also afraid of losing her throne too.
A fair point...life imprisonment in the tower it is then! (But I still think she would consider their children as possible heirs, being as they are indisputably legitimate, english, and protestant.)
 
A fair point...life imprisonment in the tower it is then! (But I still think she would consider their children as possible heirs, being as they are indisputably legitimate, english, and protestant.)
True, though that's assuming Jane and Dudley get the chance to "do it" which is unlikely considering they'll most likely be kept in different rooms to prevent them from planning an escape. Heck Jane's sisters probably get a worse run of it here as they could pose a threat if they can try and help free Jane. Though I agree if Jane does have children they'll be considered as heirs.
 
Guildford might be a convenient scapegoat for Jane if Elizabeth is feeling generous. Of course she'd then be expected to marry someone the Queen thinks is suitable.
Hmm, if so would Seymour try to court Jane instead?
 
Guildford might be a convenient scapegoat for Jane if Elizabeth is feeling generous. Of course she'd then be expected to marry someone the Queen thinks is suitable.
Hmm, if so would Seymour try to court Jane instead?
I doubt it. Most likely Jane is kept under tight house arrest. As I mentioned before Elizabeth was concerned that she was a bastard (many protestants believed she was in otl IIRC) and she was quite paranoid in otl. Look at how she treated the other two grey sisters and Edward Seymour and Arabella Stuart in otl, and they were no where near the threat Jane poses here.
 
I doubt it. Most likely Jane is kept under tight house arrest. As I mentioned before Elizabeth was concerned that she was a bastard (many protestants believed she was in otl IIRC) and she was quite paranoid in otl. Look at how she treated the other two grey sisters and Edward Seymour and Arabella Stuart in otl, and they were no where near the threat Jane poses here.
Katharine Grey bore 2 children to Seymour while in house arrest.
I'm suggesting a similar controlled environment for Jane.
 
Katharine Grey bore 2 children to Seymour while in house arrest.
I'm suggesting a similar controlled environment for Jane.
I suppose. Though the point is Jane is a bigger threat to Liz since she was Queen for a bit, were as Katherine and Mary were not.
 
And she herself had no desire to be queen so I don’t think she’ll be much, if any, of a problem.
Actually, the "no desire to be queen" was Marian propaganda (according to both Leanda de Lisle and Eric Ives). Jane herself refused to sign onto Mary's idea that the whole thing was Northumberland's idea (even if it would've saved her [Jane]).
 
True, though that's assuming Jane and Dudley get the chance to "do it" which is unlikely considering they'll most likely be kept in different rooms to prevent them from planning an escape.
Elizabeth tried that with Katherine Grey. Katherine still managed two kids - both of whom survived.
 
She is a bigger threat yes. She also has a lot to gain as the implicit heir to Elizabeth.
Elizabeth tried that with Katherine Grey. Katherine still managed two kids - both of whom survived.
Yes, but Elizabeth is highly unlikely to acknowledge an heir at this time. If anything she’ll leave it open like otl. Jane is also going to be on a way tighter leash than her sisters here. If Dudley is alive he could very well be kept in a different Prison.
 
Yes, but Elizabeth is highly unlikely to acknowledge an heir at this time. If anything she’ll leave it open like otl. Jane is also going to be on a way tighter leash than her sisters here. If Dudley is alive he could very well be kept in a different Prison.
I'm pretty sure Elizabeth during her early reign upheld her father's last Act of Succession and it was only growing support by Parliament for the direct Stewart/Stuart heirs that led to those Acts being dropped. The Greys will be her implicit heirs from those Acts regardless who she acknowledges.
 
I don't see why Elizabeth would be much worried about Jane. Northumberland is dead, and he was Jane's most important backer. No Catholic would support Jane over Elizabeth.

Now if after the dust settles from Mary's demise, they meet, and Jane says "Get off my throne, you bastard!" ... That would probably put the wind up Elizabeth.

OTOH, during Wyatt's Rebellion, Jane's father and uncle seem to have accepted that Elizabeth was Mary's rightful heir (and implicitly that Mary was Edward's heir, not Jane). If they lean on Jane to drop her (dubious) claim under Edward's will, she's still (undisputedly) in line under Henry's Succession Act. Of course, at this time that isn't worth much - Elizabeth is only 20, and there's no reason to think she would never marry. But it's still something: namely, the non-trivial chance that Elizabeth dies without children, which might be as high as 1 in 3.

Incidentally, Elizabeth's marital prospects at this moment would be very hard to assess. She's a queen regnant. There were very few previous queens regnant, and even fewer who married after succeeding. (I can't think of any, actually.) That was about to change OTL, with Mary Tudor and Mary of Scotland, but not yet as of 1554. (It's interesting to note that there were no previous queens regnant in England, except Matilda, sort of; Margaret Beaufort was passed over for her son Henry; Elizabeth of York was not spoken of as Edward IV's successor IIRC; and then in the mid-1500s, Jane, Mary Tudor, Elizabeth, and Mary of Scotland all appear as queens or recognized heirs.)
 
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