WI - Liberals come ahead of Labour in 1931

[Pittite]

The 1931 general election is remembered as having produced the largest majority in British history for Ramsay MacDonald's National Government, while Stanley Baldwin and the Tories won the largest number of seats ever won by a single party at 470. However, an interesting titbit of the election was how close the other parties were to one another, given the dominance of the Conservatives - Labour were only 17 seats ahead of the Liberal Nationals and 19 ahead of the Liberals, both of whom participated in the National Government until the Liberals withdrew in 1932.

Consequently, Labour only narrowly retained their status as the second largest party, even if falling behind the two Liberal factions would have meant they would still have been the Official Opposition for another year. So, what if 1931 was even worse for Labour and the party fell into fourth place, ceasing to be the primary opposition to the Conservatives after the Liberals subsequently withdraw from the Nat. Gov?

How does this effect subsequent British political history? Do the Liberals become the second largest party in 1935, given that Herbert Samuel will have a far higher profile as Leader of the Opposition? If so, how does this affect the subsequent course of British politics? Does Churchill secure victory in 1945 if his opponents are the Liberals, rather than Labour? Does Labour eventually fade away if it fails to reclaim ground in 1935?

 

[Amadeus]

The best way to have the Liberals beat Labour is to avoid the fatal split between Asquith and Lloyd-George that ruined the party and gave way to the power vacuum on the left which lead to the rise of Labour. The problem is this requires a POD of at least nineteen years before 1935. However, if it can be done, then following WWI the Liberals remain one of the two main British parties while Labour is a Socialist third party. Labour wouldn't ever fade away due to its strong support from trades unions and the working class, but at the same time it would be hard to see any future Labour MP becoming PM in such a scenario.

 

[Pittite]

The best way to have the Liberals beat Labour is to avoid the fatal split between Asquith and Lloyd-George that ruined the party and gave way to the power vacuum on the left which lead to the rise of Labour. The problem is this requires a POD of at least nineteen years before 1935. However, if it can be done, then following WWI the Liberals remain one of the two main British parties while Labour is a Socialist third party. Labour wouldn't ever fade away due to its strong support from trades unions and the working class, but at the same time it would be hard to see any future Labour MP becoming PM in such a scenario.

Avoiding the Asquith-Lloyd George split is certainly the best way to avert the Liberals' decline, but this thread is more focused on what would have happened if the Liberals found themselves once again the Official Opposition in the 30s - either as a brief blip or as a restoration of their former position.

 

[Amadeus]

Avoiding the Asquith-Lloyd George split is certainly the best way to avert the Liberals' decline, but this thread is more focused on what would have happened if the Liberals found themselves once again the Official Opposition in the 30s - either as a brief blip or as a restoration of their former position.

With a 1935 POD, I think Liberal dominance is only temporary unless they become more forceful and articulate advocates of a welfare state that benefits the middle class. The Beveridge Report was written by a Liberal, so it's not impossible to imagine. But if they don't use their status at second place to re-establish themselves as the best left wing alternative to the Tories, Labour will likely make a very strong comeback by 1945.

 

[manav95]

With a 1935 POD, I think Liberal dominance is only temporary unless they become more forceful and articulate advocates of a welfare state that benefits the middle class. The Beveridge Report was written by a Liberal, so it's not impossible to imagine. But if they don't use their status at second place to re-establish themselves as the best left wing alternative to the Tories, Labour will likely make a very strong comeback by 1945.

I could see the following breakdown:

Working class workers (pun intended) and urban poor: Labour

Middle class people and elites with too much education: Liberals

Traditionalists, gentry, the wealthy, most of the nobility: Conservatives