WI: Leopold Johann, Archduke of Austria, survives infancy?

[eliamartin65]

On a bit of Habsburg "what if" mood today, so here goes:

In OTL, Leopold Johann, the long-awaited heir of Charles VI, Holy Roman Emperor (and older brother of Maria Theresa) was born on 13 April 1716, but died seven months later, on 4 November. There were hopes that he'd regain health (since, unlike Habsburg tradition called for by this point, his parents were not closely related) but the little one still died, and Charles VI was deeply affected by the loss of his son.

But suppose that whatever killed him never happened, and he managed to succeed Charles VI? Obviously, his survival butterflies the War for the Austrian Succession, since there's a living male Habsburg. But what happens to Maria Theresa in this scenario? Does she still marry Franz Stephan?

I'd love to hear your thoughts?

 

[Habsburg enjoyer]

I'd never actually heard of Leopold Johann, but this seems like great way to avoid the disaster that was the ear of austrian succession and prevent the rise a Prussia as a rival to austria in the HRE. Also, Charles VI won't have to spend his entire reign being distracted by trying to get people to accept the pragmatic sanction.

 

[eliamartin65]

I'd never actually heard of Leopold Johann, but this seems like a great way to avoid the disaster that was the war of austrian succession and prevent the rise of Prussia as a rival to austria in the HRE. Also, Charles VI won't have to spend his entire reign being distracted by trying to get people to accept the pragmatic sanction.

I think so too!

Leopold Johann's survival means coming up with different fates for Maria Theresa, Maria Anna and Maria Amalia (if they still exist ITTL), though.

 

[Nuraghe]

its existence technically blows away the pretext for the War of the Austrian Succession but is unlikely to prevent war from breaking out if we build on Otl both France and Prussia had seen how weak and vulnerable the Habsburg state was at that time, because they had seen firsthand how poorly managed the imperial army was, mostly drawing from the experiences of the wars of 1733 - 35 ( Polish succession ) and the one against the Ottomans ( where the Habsburg army was so badly damaged that it lost the previous gains and returned the fortress of Belgrade without giving the slightest resistance ) certainly the existence of Leopold Johann can change all that, but does not remove the real underlying problem, i.e. the government of his father Charles VI ( who, without listening to the advisers of his father and brother, in particular Eugene of Savoy, had allowed the state and the army to weaken and his policies towards the other HRE states were weak, as was his handling of finances ( let's say the defeat in the War of the Spanish Succession left a deep wound in him as he was genuinely in love with Spain and his subsequent ouster in 1713 and his succession to the HRE throne it was seen by him as almost a stopgap / sop ( also he hadn't been prepared to govern such a complex state as the empire ) as far as Maria Teresa is concerned, there are no suitable husbands of a certain prestige ( perhaps Paris but I'm not very convinced of it ) so I think she will still marry a Lorraine ( in the beginning she was to marry Francis Stephan's older brother, but died of smallpox ) or she will end up married to an Italian prince

 

[eliamartin65]

his existence technically blows away the pretext for the War of the Austrian Succession but is unlikely to prevent war from breaking out if we build on Otl both France and Prussia had seen how weak and vulnerable the Habsburg state was at that time, because they had seen firsthand how poorly managed the imperial army was, mostly drawing from the experiences of the wars of 1733 - 35 ( Polish succession ) and the one against the Ottomans ( where the Habsburg army was so badly damaged that it lost the previous gains and returned the fortress of Belgrade without giving the slightest resistance ) certainly the existence of Leopold Johann can change all that, but does not remove the real underlying problem, i.e. the government of his father Charles VI ( who, without listening to the advisers of his father and brother, in particular Eugene of Savoy, had allowed the state and the army to weaken and his policies towards the other HRE states were weak, as was his handling of finances ( let's say the defeat in the War of the Spanish Succession left a deep wound in him as he was genuinely in love with Spain and his subsequent ouster in 1713 and his succession to the HRE throne it was seen by him as almost a stopgap / sop ( also he hadn't been prepared to govern such a complex state as the empire ) as far as Maria Teresa is concerned, there are no suitable husbands of a certain prestige ( perhaps Paris but I'm not very convinced of it ) so I think she will still marry a Lorraine ( in the beginning she was to marry Francis Stephan's older brother, but died of smallpox ) or she will end up married to an Italian prince

So Leopold Johann (as Emperor Leopold II ITTL) would inherit the same messy HRE as his sister Maria Theresa inherited IOTL?

 

[Habsburg enjoyer]

So Leopold Johann (as Emperor Leopold II ITTL) would inherit the same messy HRE as his sister Maria Theresa inherited IOTL?

yes except his ascension wouldn't be greeted by half of europe trying to take his throne. Though the more that I think about it, It could turn out to be less messy since Charles VI could focus improving Austria's position instead of making concession after concession in a futile attempt to get europe to accept Maria Theresa's rule. There would be no Bavarian attempt to seize the HRE and no causes belli for Prussia to begin its wars of expansion. A big problem Charles VI had issues resulting from his loss of Spain and his son, so ATL Charles might be more sure and assertive and as a result to reversals of the 1730's might be lessened or even prevented. After all, Leopold died in 1716, and the the war of polish succession happens almost15 years later, that is a long time for things to change.

 

[Hastings]

Yeah, Charles V was not a good ruler. Now the rottenness may be less apparent. Those two disastrous wars were in part connected to gaining support for the Pragmatic Sanction. Ostend Company survives. The War of Austrian Succession won't happen as OTL since a 24-year-old man inheriting won't be seen as a sign of weakness in the same way. But this is 1700s Europe, there *will* be wars. Austria won't be fighting for its very life, but it will get some ugly knocks, because its military is in terrible state and the bonds of the HRE are greatly weakened. When fighting the Sun King, nearly half of Habsburg forces were from the Empire. That would never be even close to true again.

 

[eliamartin65]

A big problem Charles VI had issues resulting from his loss of Spain and his son, so ATL Charles might be more sure and assertive and as a result to reversals of the 1730's might be lessened or even prevented. After all, Leopold died in 1716, and the the war of polish succession happens almost 15 years later, that is a long time for things to change.

This makes a lot of sense.

Yeah, Charles V was not a good ruler. Now the rottenness may be less apparent. Those two disastrous wars were in part connected to gaining support for the Pragmatic Sanction. Ostend Company survives. The War of Austrian Succession won't happen as OTL since a 24-year-old man inheriting won't be seen as a sign of weakness in the same way. But this is 1700s Europe, there *will* be wars. Austria won't be fighting for its very life, but it will get some ugly knocks, because its military is in terrible state and the bonds of the HRE are greatly weakened. When fighting the Sun King, nearly half of Habsburg forces were from the Empire. That would never be even close to true again.

It's a pity Charles VI wasn't cut from the same cloth as previous Habsburg Emperors.

On another topic, though, who would marry Leopold Johann here?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@eliamartin65 if you're worried about Maria Theresa etc existing, why not simply have Maria Amalia (their youngest sister who died in infancy) be born as a boy instead. After all, the only reason that Karl VI underwent a Bohemian coronation was because he believed a prophecy that said he would not have a son until crowned king of Bohemia. At the coronation banquet in Prague, the Bohemian deputies/aristos toasted Elisabeth Christine's pregnant belly as "Hansl im Der Keller" (Johnny in the Basement). And that the pregnancy produced "another useless girl" was a massive let down.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@eliamartin65 https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-hansl-im-keller-or-a-son-for-karl-vi.500959/

 

[eliamartin65]

@eliamartin65 if you're worried about Maria Theresa etc existing, why not simply have Maria Amalia (their youngest sister who died in infancy) be born as a boy instead. After all, the only reason that Karl VI underwent a Bohemian coronation was because he believed a prophecy that said he would not have a son until crowned king of Bohemia. At the coronation banquet in Prague, the Bohemian deputies/aristos toasted Elisabeth Christine's pregnant belly as "Hansl im Der Keller" (Johnny in the Basement). And that the pregnancy produced "another useless girl" was a massive let down.

I didn't know that story. Interesting tidbit

So Charles VI has two sons ITTL (Leopold Johann and Charles), leaving Maria Anna and Maria Theresa as the sole female issue. Who would Maria Anna marry? And who would Leopold Johann and Charles marry?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I didn't know that story. Interesting tidbit

So Charles VI has two sons ITTL (Leopold Johann and Charles), leaving Maria Anna and Maria Theresa as the sole female issue. Who would Maria Anna marry? And who would Leopold Johann and Charles marry?

Maria Theresa and Leopold Johann likely both get Spanish matches (assuming the Congress of Soissons and the treaty of Seville still happens). So MT to Carlos III and LJ to the rejected queen of France, Mariana Vittoria of Spain. Isabel Farnese would see the latter as the "ultimate" revenge on the French no doubt.
Maria Anna potentially goes to José in Portugal (Felipe V's next daughter is too young). Karl might get some nice German princess. I'd personally prefer it if both he and LJ could get "good German matches" (LJ to a Hannoverian/Prussian princess; Karl to some equally loyal Habsburg-ally like Baden-Baden*)

Actually, come to think of it, LJ's survival would impact the whole scenario of where Joseph I's daughters marry. With a surviving son, Karl VI will marry Maria Josepha to Bavaria and Maria Amalie to Poland/Savoy (instead of switching the betrothals around)

*Elisabeth of Baden-Baden, the only surviving daughter of Ludwig Georg of Baden-Baden would be a great choice of a match. Her mother was the only child of Prince Schwarzenberg (for a long time, so much so that Joseph I/Karl VI signed a decree that stated that if Prince Schwarzenberg didn't have a male heir, all those lands in Bohemia would pass to her). Ultimately, her dad did have an heir (but Karl VI killed the Prince in a "hunting accident"- Schwarzenberg was Karl's gunbearer and the gun exploded killing him, Karl reportedly felt guilty about it for the rest of his life- would that the gun had exploded in Karl's hands and history would've been spared his rule). Anyhow, Princess Schwarzenberg then married the Margrave of Baden-Baden but took a redonkulous dowry (see the emperor's guilt) and quite a few estates in Bohemia to the match. She combined this with Baden-Baden already owning half of the Bohemian lands belonging to the Saxe-Lauenburgs, and it was a nice little pile. Unfortunately, Ludwig Georg only had a daughter, who was originally slated to marry one of Karl III of Baden-Durlach's younger sons (until they got better ideas, since the requirement was that they had to convert to Catholicism. Something that would've nixed their chances at inheriting the Swedish throne). Said daughter - well into spinsterhood - then married a Bohemian nobleman, had a son, who died after only a few hours. The lands went back to the Schwarzenbergs, roll credits.

Now, what if in a combo of guilt and trying to recoup his expenses (plus snag those really really nice lands in Bohemia), Karl Jr marries Elisabeth of Baden-Baden?

 

[Nuraghe]

Maria Theresa and Leopold Johann likely both get Spanish matches (assuming the Congress of Soissons and the treaty of Seville still happens). So MT to Carlos III and LJ to the rejected queen of France, Mariana Vittoria of Spain. Isabel Farnese would see the latter as the "ultimate" revenge on the French no doubt.
Maria Anna potentially goes to José in Portugal (Felipe V's next daughter is too young). Karl might get some nice German princess. I'd personally prefer it if both he and LJ could get "good German matches" (LJ to a Hannoverian/Prussian princess; Karl to some equally loyal Habsburg-ally like Baden-Baden*)

Actually, come to think of it, LJ's survival would impact the whole scenario of where Joseph I's daughters marry. With a surviving son, Karl VI will marry Maria Josepha to Bavaria and Maria Amalie to Poland/Savoy (instead of switching the betrothals around)

*Elisabeth of Baden-Baden, the only surviving daughter of Ludwig Georg of Baden-Baden would be a great choice of a match. Her mother was the only child of Prince Schwarzenberg (for a long time, so much so that Joseph I/Karl VI signed a decree that stated that if Prince Schwarzenberg didn't have a male heir, all those lands in Bohemia would pass to her). Ultimately, her dad did have an heir (but Karl VI killed the Prince in a "hunting accident"- Schwarzenberg was Karl's gunbearer and the gun exploded killing him, Karl reportedly felt guilty about it for the rest of his life- would that the gun had exploded in Karl's hands and history would've been spared his rule). Anyhow, Princess Schwarzenberg then married the Margrave of Baden-Baden but took a redonkulous dowry (see the emperor's guilt) and quite a few estates in Bohemia to the match. She combined this with Baden-Baden already owning half of the Bohemian lands belonging to the Saxe-Lauenburgs, and it was a nice little pile. Unfortunately, Ludwig Georg only had a daughter, who was originally slated to marry one of Karl III of Baden-Durlach's younger sons (until they got better ideas, since the requirement was that they had to convert to Catholicism. Something that would've nixed their chances at inheriting the Swedish throne). Said daughter - well into spinsterhood - then married a Bohemian nobleman, had a son, who died after only a few hours. The lands went back to the Schwarzenbergs, roll credits.

Now, what if in a combo of guilt and trying to recoup his expenses (plus snag those really really nice lands in Bohemia), Karl Jr marries Elisabeth of Baden-Baden?

Wait if I understand correctly Kellan ok ?

so this Elisabeth was not only a rich bohemian heiress but could she allow the Habsburgs to take Baden-Baden ( which was Catholic if I remember correctly) and unify it with the possessions of further Austria, correct ?
in practice, except for the ecclesiastical lands, Wurttemberg and Bavaria, all of the south of the HRE would be in the hands of the Habsburgs, also giving him greater control than Otl over Swabian and Franconian circles

but a Prussian / Hanover bride, and latter also means London ( and you run the same risk as Otl Anne of Hanover flop with Louis XV ) does not run the same problem of conversion, in Vienna she certainly cannot remain Lutheran, she will necessarily have to convert

 

[eliamartin65]

Maria Theresa and Leopold Johann likely both get Spanish matches (assuming the Congress of Soissons and the treaty of Seville still happens). So MT to Carlos III and LJ to the rejected queen of France, Mariana Vittoria of Spain. Isabel Farnese would see the latter as the "ultimate" revenge on the French no doubt.
Maria Anna potentially goes to José in Portugal (Felipe V's next daughter is too young). Karl might get some nice German princess. I'd personally prefer it if both he and LJ could get "good German matches" (LJ to a Hannoverian/Prussian princess; Karl to some equally loyal Habsburg-ally like Baden-Baden*)

I like your choices of matches....

Now, what if in a combo of guilt and trying to recoup his expenses (plus snag those really really nice lands in Bohemia), Karl Jr marries Elisabeth of Baden-Baden?

Soap Opera level drama right there.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

o this Elisabeth was not only a rich bohemian heiress but could she allow the Habsburgs to take Baden-Baden ( which was Catholic if I remember correctly) and unify it with the possessions of further Austria, correct ?

The Habsburgs could take the Bohemian lands, not so much Baden, which was to return to the Protestant Durlach line

but a Prussian / Hanover bride, and latter also means London ( and you run the same risk as Otl Anne of Hanover flop with Louis XV ) does not run the same problem of conversion, in Vienna she certainly cannot remain Lutheran, she will necessarily have to convert

The "flop" with Louis XV was a little more nuanced than "she can't convert to Catholicism". Most of it had to do with the fact that she would be converting to Catholicism to marry the king of France. Her brother in Hannover had no children yet, and the 1718/1719 rising was in recent memory. That rising was driven by the Stuarts. Who had been sheltered (until relatively recently) by the king of France (yes, it was Louis XIV, but there were still enough Jacobites hanging around in Paris, plus, Louis XV's parents had been pretty darn tight with James III. Yes, Louis was too young, but never can be too careful).

So, in sum, if the unthinkable had happened and both the prince of Wales and duke of Cumberland died without issue, the king of France was married to the heiress to England. Yes, the Act of Settlement excluded any Catholics, but it is still a piece of paper (which doesn't really hold up well when there's a French army landing at Dover).

Walpole, Stanhope and the Dowager Duchess of Marlborough all wrote about this in their letters. Less that they minded her converting to marry than they were doubtful of how effective a measly slip of paper would be to "safeguard British liberties". Had Louis XV played for a younger daughter (Caroline or Amelia), in all likelihood they'd have accepted.

That being said: Karl VI was on George I's side against the Stuarts (he'd forbidden James III from settling in the Low Countries - as originally planned - IIRC), he'd made a admittedly half-hearted attempt to stop Klementyna Sobieska from travelling to Italy (only reason he didn't was because of Captain Wogan and because Karl actually didn't see it as his "business" to get involved in what he viewed as a private squabble between George and James). And Karl VI turned down a suggestion (in the 1720s and again in the 1730s) of a potential match between Bonnie Prince Charlie and his youngest daughter, Maria Amalia (the 1720s proposal) or Maria Anna (in the 1730s) for fear of the offense it would give Britain.

Now...Karl VI didn't do this all out of the goodness of his heart. He wanted British support for the Pragmatic Sanction (among other things). And he had absolutely no reason to like the British (plus, the British wouldn't have the Pragmatic Sanction to hold over his head to force him to disband the Ostend Company- which, in its brief existence, effectively tanked the British tea/China trade monopoly*). Plus he blamed them as being the reason he lost the throne of Spain. So...Britain needs to resort to other weapons of diplomacy: marriage. Make a condition of the marriage contract that Karl either needs to disband the company or (at least) fire the Jacobites involved. Problem with disbanding the company is that there were a couple of high placed investors (including Prince Eugen of Savoie and Archduchess Maria Anna, the Queen of Portugal**) involved who objected. As seen by the fact that they tried to restart the Ostend Company several times after its closure.

*the main reason that the British actually wanted the company closed had less to do with the fact that it was screwing them over financially (when Jenkin's Ear was over, they picked up again) and more because the men at the levers of the company were exiled Jacobites- think the manager's name was Alexander Hume? but don't quote me- and that money was being funnelled back into England (through Ireland) to support the Jacobite movement.
**the company had a rather multinational aspect: Scottish bankers, Dutch sailors/ships and Portuguese merchants, at least half the investors also sat on the Privy Council in Vienna and the other half was from the Belgic aristocracy/burghers