WI Japan conquer China instead of Song

[octoberman]

POD is that Taika Reform succeeds in centralizing Japan. It takes power away from clan. Their land nationalized and redistributed. Imperial government becomes the sole authority in Japan. The Emperor creates a professional national standing army Tang dynasty in China and Silla dynasty in Korea fall as in OTL starting Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period and Later Three Kingdoms period respectively. Japan moves in fill this power and conquers China and Korea .

How will this Chinese, Korean and Japanese history ?

How Japan deal with Jin and Mongols ?

Will China still develop like it did under the Song ?

 

[Oda]

I strongly doubt the POD is good enough for japan to even take on one of the 10 kingdoms in southern China much less take the entirety of China

 

[octoberman]

I strongly doubt the POD is good enough for japan to even take on one of the 10 kingdoms in southern China much less take the entirety of China

Why not ?

 

[Evil Crusader]

POD is that Taika Reform succeeds in centralizing Japan. It takes power away from clan. Their land nationalized and redistributed. Imperial government becomes the sole authority in Japan. The Emperor creates a professional national standing army Tang dynasty in China and Silla dynasty in Korea fall as in OTL starting Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period and Later Three Kingdoms period respectively. Japan moves in fill this power and conquers China and Korea .

How will this Chinese, Korean and Japanese history ?

How Japan deal with Jin and Mongols ?

Will China still develop like it did under the Song ?

So, to get this straight: we are to discuss what if a) Japan did better in its reforms than OTL, b) it also manages to build a large army, c) manages to be still strong three centuries later so that d) it wants to conquer China and Korea, and manages to do so and retain those for a whopping three hundred years.

a) and b) summed already tend to be pushing it given the trajectory of OTL, but c) is very unlikely and d) outright wank territory flirting with ASB.
Distance, population, political reasons, most factors go against it.

And of course, given you've touched on changes spanning roughly six centuries (!), it's equally hard to discuss those.

 

[Aluma]

I think Taika working and a sorta unified Japan going on a conquerer path is a interesting premise
Maybe instead of going for China they could try colonizing Southeast Asia like the OTL Japan or pull a Liao around the area of Manchuria?

 

[octoberman]

try colonizing Southeast Asia like the OTL Japan

That's too far and once China unifies it will effortlessly wrestle away the conquest

or pull a Liao around the area of Manchuria?

It is mostly inhabited by nomads so I doubt it can be conquered before guns

 

[Avrorrange]

They probably couldn’t even cross the straits with their navy. Crossing between China and Japan was extremely perilous during this period. Records from the Tang Dynasty indicates that most crossings result in shipwrecks.Just look at the shipping record of the Japanese missions to Tang China for example. A good number ended in shipwrecks.

 

[octoberman]

They probably couldn’t even cross the straits with their navy. Crossing between China and Japan was extremely perilous during this period. Records from the Tang Dynasty indicates that most crossings result in shipwrecks.Just look at the shipping record of the Japanese missions to Tang China for example. A good number ended in shipwrecks.

That is why I proposed a route via Korea

 

[RexSueciae]

That is why I proposed a route via Korea

Given that Japan famously failed to conquer Korea about a thousand years after your proposed POD, I'm not sure how this could've happened any different if done earlier. Clearly, the version of "Japan" that existed back then (and for that matter, the version of "Korea") was completely different, but...

I think previous comments in this thread have highlighted some of the logistical issues with premodern Japan having any sort of dominance over China. My question is: where is Japan getting its manpower to sustain such an effort? How many soldiers can be summoned to fight? How will the food to supply them be produced?

 

[Avrorrange]

That is why I proposed a route via Korea

Great Liao will probably massacre all Japanese armies trying to pass through Liaodong with their great cavalry.

 

[Hearkener]

That is why I proposed a route via Korea

They tried that. A lot. Never quite worked out until the 1890s.

 

[Aluma]

That's too far

Probably, would need to improve japanese shipping greatly but thats not too unrealistic as an alt tech development for an earlier unified Japan, certainly less of a wait than the centuries for China to fracture

and once China unifies it will effortlessly wrestle away the conquest

Would it?
For all we know they may not unify, and if they do what gain do they have in invading Japan or attacking their ships? Assuming Japan still keeps a good relationship with China(and I dont see why they would suddenly turn hostile) and both them & their conquered subjects keep the tributary missions going

It is mostly inhabited by nomads so I doubt it can be conquered before guns

Isnt it the opposite? Nomads are very vulnerable to conquest by organised armies
Sure they are very successful in destroying organised armies in the fringes of a civilisation-empire, as shown by both Rome & China, but when they are within logistical range they often lose
The OTL Liao(also a former nomad group) conquering them shows that

 

[Avrorrange]

Probably, would need to improve japanese shipping greatly but thats not too unrealistic as an alt tech development for an earlier unified Japan, certainly less of a wait than the centuries for China to fracture

Would it?
For all we know they may not unify, and if they do what gain do they have in invading Japan or attacking their ships? Assuming Japan still keeps a good relationship with China(and I dont see why they would suddenly turn hostile) and both them & their conquered subjects keep the tributary missions going

Isnt it the opposite? Nomads are very vulnerable to conquest by organised armies
Sure they are very successful in destroying organised armies in the fringes of a civilisation-empire, as shown by both Rome & China, but when they are within logistical range they often lose
The OTL Liao(also a former nomad group) conquering them shows that

The Liao themselves were nomads(still nomads giving the emperor himself travels around with his court in a tent city), but most of Manchuria’s inhabitants were hunter gatherers. Said hunter gatherers still formed excellent heavy cavalry however.

 

[Hearkener]

Isnt it the opposite? Nomads are very vulnerable to conquest by organised armies
Sure they are very successful in destroying organised armies in the fringes of a civilisation-empire, as shown by both Rome & China, but when they are within logistical range they often lose
The OTL Liao(also a former nomad group) conquering them shows that

Not really. Eurasian horse-nomads tended to have well-organised armies of their own, often much more so than the agricultural empires they faced. The idea that they were a screaming horde of disorganized horsemen is pure fiction. Nomads had chains of command and logistical networks, could execute highly complex operational maneuvers and understood well to systematically destabilize the fabric of agricultural societies.

 

[Avrorrange]

Not really. Eurasian horse-nomads tended to have well-organised armies of their own, often much more so than the agricultural empires they faced. The idea that they were a screaming horde of disorganized horsemen is pure fiction. Nomads had chains of command and logistical networks, could execute highly complex operational maneuvers and understood well to systematically destabilize the fabric of agricultural societies.

I think ironically what the agricultural empires excelled was much better horse breeding practices like selective breeding.

 

[Aluma]

idea that they were a screaming horde of disorganized horsemen is pure fiction

I wasnt saying that!
Was just going with their Antiquity record which was very mixed in their win-loss range whih granted is extremely outdated when it comes to talking about their medieval counterparts but unfortunately thats the area I know most of

 

[octoberman]

Given that Japan famously failed to conquer Korea about a thousand years after your proposed POD, I'm not sure how this could've happened any different if done earlier. Clearly, the version of "Japan" that existed back then (and for that matter, the version of "Korea") was completely different, but...

I think previous comments in this thread have highlighted some of the logistical issues with premodern Japan having any sort of dominance over China. My question is: where is Japan getting its manpower to sustain such an effort? How many soldiers can be summoned to fight? How will the food to supply them be produced?

They tried that. A lot. Never quite worked out until the 1890s.

Yet this time Korea is divided into three Kingdoms which makes conquest easier

 

[Hearkener]

Yet this time Korea is divided into three Kingdoms which makes conquest easier

Japan was also quite heavily involved in the Korean Three Kingdoms period, but far from stomping on everyone, they were a peripheral power that didn't really impact the outcome of wars they participated in.

Because of WW2, the historical power of Japan is way overestimated. It's peer was Korea, not China. Even in the Imjin War, Japan only got as far as it did because Korea's leadership was largely incompetent, and once that changed, the invaders were deep in the molasses.

 

[walmart]

Without a major external enemy, there is no reason for Japan to maintain a large standing army. The otl invasions of the 1590s were down to keeping the samurai busy,so they didn't get any ideas.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Exactly how much of China is Japan going to conquer in this scenario? Because overextension is a real threat to Japan in this scenario. And as Japan gets further and further into China a multitude of problems will crop up: exhaustion, collapsing Japanese troop morale, lack of food, unfamiliarity with the terrain, Chinese resistance fighters, message speed, and so so much more. Not to mention Japan has a smaller area than China, which means that a smaller population will support a smaller army, compared to China and the Chinese population. The only territory I can see Japan gaining is a very small one, and even then, the Japanese hold on that same piece of Chinese territory is going to be very stressful, at best. This is not to rain on your parade by the way. This scenario is interesting, just that Japan can get into a lot of trouble real fast.