WI: Italy knocked out of WW1?

[Bomster]

The Battle of Caporetto was a resounding defeat for Italian forces, sending them into full-on retreat from the Austro-German advance. However the Italians stalled their advance at the First Battle of Monte Grappa, defending the plains toward Venice and stabilizing the front, later scoring a decisive victory on the Piave that mortally wounded the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, what if somehow the Italians failed to stabilize the front and the Austrians and Germans pushed even further into Italy, maybe even seizing Venice? Would this knock Italy out of the war, and if so how would this affect the rest of the Entente? What demands would the Germans and Austrians subject on Italy? Would losing both Russia and Italy push Britain and France to the negotiating table? How would the Italian people respond to losing the war? Earlier Biennio Rosso, perhaps a red revolution? Or would Mussolini step in earlier than IOTL? With victory in Italy would the Germans and Austrians be able to transfer more forces elsewhere? Could this win them the war?

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

The Battle of Caporetto was a resounding defeat for Italian forces, sending them into full-on retreat from the Austro-German advance. However the Italians stalled their advance at the First Battle of Monte Grappa, defending the plains toward Venice and stabilizing the front, later scoring a decisive victory on the Piave that mortally wounded the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, what if somehow the Italians failed to stabilize the front and the Austrians and Germans pushed even further into Italy, maybe even seizing Venice? Would this knock Italy out of the war, and if so how would this affect the rest of the Entente?

Not sure if that would knock Italy of the war but this is probably a possibility if the right condition are here . The rest of the Entente will probably try to keep Italy in the war with promesse and economic and military support . But if that fail and Italy still go out of the war then the Entente would have a worse moral and situation for the rest of the war unless other victory happen . The biggest effect will probably be Austria Hungary be

What demands would the Germans and Austrians subject on Italy?

Many in Germany and Austria Hungary would want to punish Austria Hungary for their perceived betrayal but if they want the Italian to accept peace they would have to keep the thing relatively light .

Would losing both Russia and Italy push Britain and France to the negotiating table?

Very possible but it depend on how thing play

How would the Italian people respond to losing the war? Earlier Biennio Rosso, perhaps a red revolution? Or would Mussolini step in earlier than IOTL?

No idea on that there many possibility.

With victory in Italy would the Germans and Austrians be able to transfer more forces elsewhere? Could this win them the war?

In earlier threads something that have been said is that Austrian will probably demobilize a part of their army to restart production of ressource wich will help both Germany and Austria . With probably some part of the Austrian army going to help in the western front and the Balkan .

 

[Mikey]

I mean...it went pretty badly for Italy as it is, to the point where I'm not sure it could really even go that much worse. It's plausible enough that Italy would shift into a defensive position, and then the front would eventually stabilize with n either side really eager to push forward, but Austria-Hungary isn't in a position to advance much.

That said...morale was pretty bad in the Italian Army, and a large string of mutinies seems pretty plausible. But while it might threaten the Italian government (and take down more than one), it's hard to see a full collapse that would require an armistice—and the mutineers might not *want* one, so much as they wanted better leadership. You can imagine some complex back and forth where Cardona resists being relieved of command, setting up some kind of large-scale clash with the civilian government in Rome?

 

[Bomster]

I mean...it went pretty badly for Italy as it is, to the point where I'm not sure it could really even go that much worse. It's plausible enough that Italy would shift into a defensive position, and then the front would eventually stabilize with n either side really eager to push forward, but Austria-Hungary isn't in a position to advance much.

That said...morale was pretty bad in the Italian Army, and a large string of mutinies seems pretty plausible. But while it might threaten the Italian government (and take down more than one), it's hard to see a full collapse that would require an armistice—and the mutineers might not *want* one, so much as they wanted better leadership. You can imagine some complex back and forth where Cardona resists being relieved of command, setting up some kind of large-scale clash with the civilian government in Rome?

Was there any possibility of the Central Powers winning at Monte Grappa, and crossing the Piave?

 

[Court Jester]

It would be difficult, Central powers logistics were threadbare at that point and there was considerable command friction, along with considerable exhaustion. Italians would have to commit a series of serious mistakes for Monte Grappa to be taken.

 

[Plundenoru]

I don't think a defeat at Monte Grappe would've forced a defeat unless there is a massive unrest and desertion, even more so than Caporetto. There were other defense lines further back where British and French divisions were stationed as they expected a deeper Austrian breaktrough. At the very least I imagine they would make a stand on the Adige River.

 

[AntoniousTheBro]

I mean...it went pretty badly for Italy as it is, to the point where I'm not sure it could really even go that much worse. It's plausible enough that Italy would shift into a defensive position, and then the front would eventually stabilize with n either side really eager to push forward, but Austria-Hungary isn't in a position to advance much.

That said...morale was pretty bad in the Italian Army, and a large string of mutinies seems pretty plausible. But while it might threaten the Italian government (and take down more than one), it's hard to see a full collapse that would require an armistice—and the mutineers might not *want* one, so much as they wanted better leadership. You can imagine some complex back and forth where Cardona resists being relieved of command, setting up some kind of large-scale clash with the civilian government in Rome?

actually on the morale front it was on the improvement after the removal of Cadorna rather than failing with the most hated man in the army gone it saw marked rise but that was just one aspect the other aspect arguably the more important is the realisation of the possibility of Austro-Hungarian invasion and that fear breed a very bright fury as the nation rallied HARD around the government for the sake of winning the war as viewed as the only way of throwing off Austrian domination. so unless they kept cadorna which is really really unlikely you likely don't see the drop in morale either at home or on the front. overall i feel like we have been coloured poorly by the French mutinies of 1917

 

[Deleted member 147289]

Even without Venetia the frontline would have stabilized around the border between Lombardy and Venice at last as the Italians would have used the many rivers of the Venetian plain as a defensive line; even if this lines get pierced every time, the Germans and Austrians will run out of steam sooner or later and the front would stabilize again.

This would definitely create a "rally round the flag" effect on the Italian people who would be fighting for their land now, much like the French have been doing since 1914 and we would likely see a more steeled resolve from both the government and the army. Also, the other members of the Entente might redirect forces to Italy, such as american divisions that were coming in in plentiful numbers. The war was going to be won in France, not Italy and I believe that a final defence in Piedmont might be a possibility, just like a small bit of Belgium was never occupied during the war

As for the potential conditions of an Italian surrender I don't see the CPs being very hard on them: no Kaiserreich style breakup, just heavy reparations, the order to surrender their fleet to Austria, maybe a demilitarized Venetia and some industrial equipment. For the revolution depends but one thing that I see is the end of the monarchy if that happens: the losses would weigh on the Savoy family and a republic might be declared much like in Germany after WWI

 

[Uruk]

I suspect that Austro-Hungary would be happy with a status quo ante bellum not sure about the germans that showed absolutly no restraint at Bucharest and Brest-Litowsk

 

[Aghasverov]

I suspect that Austro-Hungary would be happy with a status quo ante bellum not sure about the germans that showed absolutly no restraint at Bucharest and Brest-Litowsk

The territorial settlement at Bucharest at least seemed pretty modest to me... By permitting Romania to annex Bessarabia, the Romanians would've emerged from the conflict with more territory than they had begun the war with... and IMO the awfulness of Brest-Litovsk has been a bit overstated as well.

 

[Uruk]

The territorial settlement at Bucharest at least seemed pretty modest to me... By permitting Romania to annex Bessarabia, the Romanians would've emerged from the conflict with more territory than they had begun the war with... and IMO the awfulness of Brest-Litovsk has been a bit overstated as well.

Really? Bucharest turned Romania more or less into a colony and Brest_Litowsk was far harsher in every sense than the much maligned Versaille that was surprisngly mild and even then the germans didnt pay much of the reparations. There was a reason the Romanians had such difficulty finding a Government willing to sign it

 

[Aghasverov]

That's why I mentioned specifically the territorial settlement. The economic aspect of Bucharest was a bit onerous. As far as the difference between B-L and Paris, one can go 'round and 'round on which was comparatively harsher (which I've gotten into on other threads) and never come to a conclusion about it...

 

[Catspoke]

Italians move behind Po-Lake Gardia line, which is the armistice line, evacuate Albania.

in 1918, Austrians provide 4 good divisions for quiet parts of the western front, 2 for Salonika.

Submarine warfare more effective in the med on 1918 without the Ortanto barrage.

Austria is on good shape in October 1918, the Central powers survive 1918, but are defeated in 1919.