WI: German economy with a january of 1945 surrender.

After the failure of the battle of Bulge (insert anti nazi officer here that was too afraid of doing that OTL) shots/blows up/order a stuka to bomb/machine gun down/poison/anyway, get rid of Hitler. The german government surrenders before the battle of Berlim. The division goes the same as OTL, maybe Stettin remains German as the most since the city wasn't burned to the ground as OTL.

What are the effects in the post war? In OTL one of the exact reasons why Germany managed to turn into a industrial power while the UK failed to keep it's industrial lead was that the UK had to modernize their current factories, while the germans could simple buy new ones. Berlim also is not destroyed as OTL and the city population probably remains over 4 million people. How does the post war Germany looks?
 
What are the effects in the post war? In OTL one of the exact reasons why Germany managed to turn into a industrial power while the UK failed to keep it's industrial lead was that the UK had to modernize their current factories, while the germans could simple buy new ones. Berlim also is not destroyed as OTL and the city population probably remains over 4 million people. How does the post war Germany looks?

Though it's often popularly assumed that the relative lack of destruction hurt the UK, the truth is more complicated and doesn't adhere so closely to Keynesian theory. The UK's decline post-war had roots that went much much further back (industrial decline can be traced to the late 19th century!). IMO the biggest reason was a societal failure to recognize the end of the Empire. Had the UK focused on developing ties with Europe instead of trying to maintain the Empire and the Sterling zone in the immediate post-war period they might have been able to stave off some of their decline. Of course no one seriously considered doing this and there were other factors such as unionization and the structure of British industry that contributed, but a general lack of vision was the killer IMO.

The foundational reason West Germany experienced an economic miracle was not because of the destruction it experienced, but the policies it pursued and the western powers pursued towards it. Germany did not have to fund a massive military, protect any colonies, or An earlier end of the war is only going to increase German growth as in addition to possessing additional human capital, the Germans can spend more efficiently.

The bigger question is how the surrender goes down as Yalta has yet to happen so while the idea of a divided Germany was there, the exact borders haven't been established and are very much in flux. Assuming Berlin is still divided it probably still experiences a significant loss of population. Dresden is in much better shape though ;) and probably continues to be the major cultural and economic hub of Saxony instead of Leipzig.
 

Deleted member 1487

The foundational reason West Germany experienced an economic miracle was not because of the destruction it experienced, but the policies it pursued and the western powers pursued towards it. Germany did not have to fund a massive military, protect any colonies, or An earlier end of the war is only going to increase German growth as in addition to possessing additional human capital, the Germans can spend more efficiently.

The bigger question is how the surrender goes down as Yalta has yet to happen so while the idea of a divided Germany was there, the exact borders haven't been established and are very much in flux. Assuming Berlin is still divided it probably still experiences a significant loss of population. Dresden is in much better shape though ;) and probably continues to be the major cultural and economic hub of Saxony instead of Leipzig.
Problem there is FDR is still alive until April and would put Morgenthau's guys in charge of occupation policy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan#JCS_1067
 
How would the flight and expulsion of Germans from Poland, Czechoslovakia, and elsewhere play out with a somewhat larger population within the country's new borders? Assuming, of course, that the border between Germany and Poland does not end up substantially further to the east.
 
Problem there is FDR is still alive until April and would put Morgenthau's guys in charge of occupation policy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan#JCS_1067

I'm really skeptical that Morgenthau's plan is going to "survive contact with the enemy" as it were. I'm far from FDR's biggest fan, but I just can't see him sanctioning the genocide of the German people that Morgenthau's plan would entail. I think TTL's division of Germany/Central Europe is going to be messy and tensions with the USSR are going to be at an all time high which will lead to Morgenthau's plan being discarded just like it was in OTL and perhaps earlier.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'm really skeptical that Morgenthau's plan is going to "survive contact with the enemy" as it were. I'm far from FDR's biggest fan, but I just can't see him sanctioning the genocide of the German people that Morgenthau's plan would entail. I think TTL's division of Germany/Central Europe is going to be messy and tensions with the USSR are going to be at an all time high which will lead to Morgenthau's plan being discarded just like it was in OTL and perhaps earlier.
You're right, it wouldn't, even the moderated plan of OTL (there wasn't ever going to be a genocide), but with extra months to be people into power, make concessions to the Soviets, and start the process they will get further than IOTL until Truman has to make changed.
 
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