WI: 'Cleggmania' materialises

[Pittite]

IOTL, the 2010 GE campaign was, to a large degree, dominated by 'Cleggmania', a surge in support for the Lib Dems triggered by a strong performance by Nick Clegg in the first televised debate. Indeed, in several polls the party overtook the Conservatives to hold a slim lead around the mid-30s which, of course, never materialised, as Clegg overextended himself and the Lib Dems lost seats and only marginally improved on their vote share in 2005.

But here's a scenario - what if 'Cleggmania' did come to be, and the Lib Dems not only secured a plurality of the popular vote, but also stood equal to the Tories and Labour in terms of seats. Such a result would require a surge far in excess of what the Lib Dems achieved IOTL, so let's say that, as a POD, David Cameron never runs for the leadership and Theresa May instead becomes the 'modernising' candidate, winning the leadership election in 2005 and duly leading the Conservatives for the duration of the 54th Parliament. When the election campaign begins, May runs a poor campaign (perhaps making the same mistakes she did IOTL's 2017 GE - but let's not get into current politics) and performs weakly in the leadership debates, while Labour is also ruined by a worse Bigotgate. The effect is that the Lib Dems establish a lead in multiple opinion polls by the end of the campaign and TTL's 2010 general election ends with the following result:

Liberal Democrat (Nick Clegg): 207 (+145)
Conservative (Theresa May): 207 (-3)
Labour (Gordon Brown): 207 (-142)
(Made through an Electoral Calculus prediction)

And so, we end with 'Cleggmania' having materialised and the three main parties having tied exactly in terms of seats.

What would the impact of this be?

Discuss.

 

[The Red]

I can’t really see those figures materialising. Even with the Lib Dem’s doing better than their wildest dreams going over 200 seems more like something that wouldn’t be borne out other than with a UNS model like Electoral Calculus. It looks like you’re using the actual 2010 election as a base as well, so the model is gaming this theoretical 2010 after the 2010 election that happened rather than 2005.

 

[Politibrit]

I agree that this scenario is extremely implausible. Theresa May would be a very different animal in 2010 after five years as Leader of the Opposition than she was at the 2017 GE. For one thing, the complacency that led her to propose such unpopular measures believing that she couldn't possibly lose her majority would not be there if the polls were anything like they were IOTL before 2010.

If they are a lot better for the Tories (which I can't see- her obvious lack of charisma would have been flushed out after facing a leadership contest and five years of being scrutinised as a potential PM) and they are projected to win a clear majority, then there is no need for May to gamble as Cameron did by attending the debates in the first place, thus butterflying Cleggmania away. Then there is the fact that for this result to happen, the Lib Dems would need to significantly outperform even their very best polls IOTL. With all the attention and negative press that was thrown the Lib Dems way after the first debate, that is really hard to see happening.

But if we are suspending our disbelief and just examining the 'what if' aspect of this, I'd say that the most likely outcome from this result is a Labour led coalition with the LDs. I believe the rule in case of multiple parties being tied on seats is that the incumbent gets to negotiate first, and if that situation arose, Labour would clearly only talk to the Lib Dems. If the talks between those two collapse, then obviously the odds of Labour propping up a LD Prime Minister are pretty slim also.

Plus Labour has a lot more leverage over Clegg policy wise. The Lib Dems have several policies-most notably electoral reform, which they have been waiting for generations to implement and regarded as sacred by many in the party. I struggle to think of anything that would mean so much to Labour that they would give up the keys to Downing Street to get it. What's more, the Tories would be far less likely to offer them PR, or the abolition of tuition fees (should the LDs want to push for it), and even if May wanted to do it, she would have no authority to impose such a deal on her backbenchers after somehow failing to even become the largest party.

So basically, I'd envisage a Labour-LD coalition with Brown quitting very soon, if not immediately. The Lib Dems would take the Treasury and the Home Office, and Labour would swallow basically every headline proposals in the Lib Dem manifesto-including a two stage NZ style referendum on PR most likely. In other circumstances one of the parties might chance it with a minority government and call a second election later in the year to secure a clear lead over the other two, but it doesn't really seem to be Clegg's style to let that happen.

 

[Seandineen]

So another pact like in 77, times 10.