WI: Brezhnev's successors had survived?

[The_Persian_Cat]

Leonid Brezhnev was General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1964-1984. During his leadership, the liberalisation policies of Khruschev were reversed. The USSR entered a period of social, cultural, and political repression which, while not on the scale of Stalin, was certainly worse than it had been under Khruschev. Meanwhile, the USSR's economy stagnated under the enormous expense of the military and the catastrophic invasion of Afghanistan. While Brezhnev's leadership was generally stable, in hindsight his decisions would lead to instability which would culminate in the dissolution of the USSR.

After Brezhnev's death, he was succeeded by Yuri Andropov, the former KGB director who was known for the brutal suppression of dissent not just in the USSR, but in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Afghanistan as well. Andropov would die after about a year, though, of kidney failure. But, what if Andropov survived? What would happen to the USSR and the world with Andropov as General Secretary?

Andropov's own successor was Konstantin Chernenko, a sickly old man who had risen to prominence after a career mostly in the USSR's propaganda machine, and was generally viewed as a weak leader even at the time. He would also die after barely a year. What would a USSR under Chernenko look like?

Chernenko was succeeded by Mikhail Gorbachev, whose policies and historical influence is well-known. However, by the time Gorbachev came to power, the USSR had already gone through a couple years without effective leadership, and the rift between different factions of the Communist Party had widened. Could either Andropov or Chernenko have righted the ship of state if they only had more time? Or was the USSR doomed by the 1980s, and was collapse inevitable?

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . Andropov's own successor was Konstantin Chernenko, a sickly old man who had risen to prominence after a career mostly in the USSR's propaganda machine, and was generally viewed as a weak leader even at the time. He would also die after barely a year. What would a USSR under Chernenko look like? . . .

Let’s run with Chernenko, especially since he’s the less known guy.

And let’s suppose he plays to strength. He becomes an excellent bridge person between public perception and reality. He has a very good feel for which reforms the public will embrace. He becomes an excellent delegator. And he’s not a perfectionist — as long as reforms are moving in a generally positive direction and at a medium energetic pace, he’s happy. <— I don’t know if any of this is true. But it could have been true if the man had risen to the job.

PS Leonid Brezhnev died on Nov. 10, 1982, just about a year prior to the dangerous (perceived that way by the Soviets) 1983 version of the NATO military exercise “Able Archer.”

 

[Cymraeg]

Let’s run with Chernenko, especially since he’s the less known guy.

And let’s suppose he plays to strength. He becomes an excellent bridge person between public perception and reality. He has a very good feel for which reforms the public will embrace. He becomes an excellent delegator. And he’s not a perfectionist — as long as reforms are moving in a generally positive direction and at a medium energetic pace, he’s happy. <— I don’t know if any of this is true. But it could have been true if the man had risen to the job.

PS Leonid Brezhnev died on Nov. 10, 1982, just about a year prior to the dangerous (perceived that way by the Soviets) 1983 version of the NATO military exercise “Able Archer.”

Yes, but right from the start he was very ill. When Dr David Owen, the then leader of the SDP in the UK, went to Moscow for the funeral he warned Margaret Thatcher that she'd probably have to make another trip back in a year or so because Chernenko was already ill with the emphysema that killed him.
If you want a better chance, have Andropov not sit on the cold stone bench that chilled him to the point where he became ill afterwards, rule for a year longer and then, when it's clear that his kidneys are shot, make Gorbachev his heir apparent. Andropov wanted Gorbachev to succeed him - Chernenko only got the job because of the machinations of (IIRC) the Defence Minister and a very Stalinist theoretician on the Politburo.

 

[GeographyDude]

Yes, but right from the start he was very ill. When Dr David Owen, the then leader of the SDP in the UK, went to Moscow for the funeral he warned Margaret Thatcher that she'd probably have to make another trip back in a year or so because Chernenko was already ill with the emphysema that killed him. . .

Or, a new treatment for emphysema cones down the pipeline about five years early, and let’s say the Soviets themselves have come up with this treatment.

This essentially gives Chernenko two more years. One he spends in office, but then, he resigns and spends his last year with his family.

The future is kind of the same . . . . . but also different in a couple of surprising ways.

 

[Johnrankins]

Andropov was a little younger so might live a decade or more than he did OTL. Chernenko might last a decade with luck. Not much more as both were old already. Chernenko would basically be another "Brezhnev decade". Andropov would have tried to shake something up.