WI: Brazil's "Intentona Comunista", the socialist revolt, succeed

This topic has been brought here a few times, but let's see... The year is 1935, Getúlio Vargas has been undemocraticaly ruling Brazil for the last five years. Finally, in November 23 a revolt starts in Natal, northeastern region of Brazil. The revolutionaries take control of the city and implement a socialist government there. A similar revolt happens in the major city of Recife and finally in the capital, Rio de Janeiro, where, lead by the military and socialist leader, captain Luís Carlos Prestes, the revolutionaries take some military bases. The revolt fails, the army babtize it as the "Intentona Comunista" ("Intentona" as for a crazy intent, a crazy plan) and the revolutionary sentiment in Brazil is strongly harmed. But it didn't need to be that way. The ANL (National Liberation Alliance) and the PCB (Communist Party of Brazil) were very strong at that time. Vargas was getting more and more authoritarian and had made the ANL illegal that same year (causing it to radicalize even more). The most probable reason why the revolutionaries failed was the lack of popular paticipation in the major cities (mainly São Paulo) and of coordination between Prestes actions and the PCB central comitee and the overconfidence of Prestes of his support in the military. I don't think is improbable, have they mobilized more people with the banner of the ANL and of the PCB, planned better their actions nationwide and maybe developed a better relationship with the soldiers to rebel, to they to succeed.

I made this very basic flag of a Socialist Brazil because that's the only way I can visualize something

I made this very basic flag of a Socialist Republic of Brazil because that's the only way I can visualize anything

Luís Carlos Prestes is now president of Brazil. Getúlio Vargas would probably be shot to death and a lot of his supporters would be arrested. But then what? Prestes was a great beliver of a more democratic approach of socialism. And Brazil wasn't under direct international capitalist pressure as the USSR (and China or Cuba would be in the future) during the revolution. Of course the USA wouldn't be happy about this, and the socialists in Brazil were openly anti-imperialists, but with WW2 almost there, what would they do? Obviously there would be some level of repression, meanly if there was some organized reaction by part of the army, but the revolution don't need to be a bloodshed to succeed.

As for their program, the ANL demanded the:
  • nationalization of industry
  • a land reform
  • suspension of the payment of the external debt
  • democratic liberties in general
Add to this the implementation of a planned economy (It wasn't a consent in the ANL but the PCB is the sttronger force here) and gradually Brazil becomes a socialist nation. A process of rapid industrialization is key here, as would probably be the approach chosen. But I can't say how it would go, it depends on how the process of revolution occurs, the level of reaction and other factors, as the influence of WW2 here. My bet is in a rapid process of industrialization similar to the USSR and/or China, resulting in a fast growth and development of brazilian economy.

The best part comes now... How it would affect the rest of the world, in special Latin America? Most revolutions in small countries, like Cuba, Vietnam or Burkina Faso, tended to encourage reaction by the ruling class of surrounding nations, making harder to the revolution to spread. This effect goes against to the original marxist belief (more focused on the 19th century european context) that the revolution in one country would imediataly inspire revolutions in the surrounding countries. Except that... Brazil is, definitivaly, not a small country. Brazil is more comparable with China or Russia, or even the USA in size and population (but with a more "cuban" mindset). So I really doubt it wouldn't inspire succesful revolutions in the surrounding nations. I can see this happening in Bolivia, that had just lost a war and a lot of territory against Paraguay, and maybe in Argentina, Uruguay, Peru, who knows? If, let's say, as a consequence of red scare in Argentina, Agustín Pedro Justo is deposed by a more hard-line fascist coup d'etat, would there be war between the two greatest nations of South America? How Brazil would affect the Cold War? Would the Intentona succeed at all? What you think would (or could) happen?

PS: I'm not a native speaker of english, so I'm doing my best to write this in the most correctly way possible. So if I committed some mistake, please, forgive me.
 
I think that you will need a POD before the 30's revolution, because ,at the time of the Intentona, the Vargas government was strongly consolidate, with support of majority of people and military.
Perhaps if Vargas die before 1930 and the old republic stay in the power more years, witj tje communist gain more popular support, you can make a communist brazil 1935-37.
 
I think that you will need a POD before the 30's revolution, because ,at the time of the Intentona, the Vargas government was strongly consolidate, with support of majority of people and military.
Perhaps if Vargas die before 1930 and the old republic stay in the power more years, witj tje communist gain more popular support, you can make a communist brazil 1935-37.

Just avoid the 1930 revolution, have João Pessoa to not die, you then will have all power concentrated in São Paulo, a massive amount of dissent everywhere and the decrepit old republic would continue

That being said a military coup or a integralist takeover are still more possible than the communist takeover, since Brazil is more "friendly" towards a right wing autocracy that integrate the ruling elites than a revolutionary group like the PCB
 
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